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Dundee crestDundee
v
ST Johnstone crestST Johnstone

Premiership | Wed 02 Sep, 19:45

Dundee v ST Johnstone Stats

Data last updated: Wed 23 Sep 2026, 04:21 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Dundee face ST Johnstone in Premiership on Wed 02 Sep, 19:45. St Johnstone scored four of their five league goals in the opening 4-3 win over Kilmarnock, leaving only one across their following two matches.

BT4Y best bet

Dundee to Win

  • At 13/8, Dundee to Win implies roughly 38%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 53%.
  • Dundee vs St Johnstone: Home resilience meets a difficult road record.
  • Dundee have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 3 for ST Johnstone.
  • Dundee have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.75 conceded per match, which helps the Dundee to Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Dundee sit 4 in the table, while ST Johnstone sit 6, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 53% for Dundee to Win sits against roughly 38% implied by the current price. Dundee have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 3 for ST Johnstone. Dundee vs St Johnstone: Home resilience meets a difficult road record.

Model chance vs price53% model chance against roughly 38% implied
Strong positive
Dundee have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points.Visible data support
Positive
Dundee have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.75 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Dundee vs St Johnstone: Home resilience meets a difficult.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Dundee Win is the preferred angle because dundee vs St Johnstone: Home resilience meets a difficult road record. Dundee have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 3 for ST Johnstone. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

Dundee to Win evidence

Dundee vs St Johnstone: Home resilience meets a difficult road record.

Dundee have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 3 for ST Johnstone.

Dundee have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.75 conceded per match, which helps the Dundee Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Dundee sit 4 in the table, while ST Johnstone sit 6, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Dundee to Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Dundee1.25
    Avg goals scored
    ST Johnstone1.67
    Dundee0.75
    Avg goals conceded
    ST Johnstone2
    Dundee25%
    BTTS rate
    ST Johnstone67%
    Dundee25%
    Over 2.5 goals
    ST Johnstone67%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 64% vs implied 60% · edge +4.1 pts
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 56%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 66%
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 30%
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 40%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    BTTS Yes is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: the BTTS rates are 25% for Dundee and 67% for ST Johnstone, so the price depends on both attacks contributing rather than the clean-sheet story.
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickDundee to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    Load more odds for this section
    Dundee Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 64%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 70%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 64%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 3.5 CardsBetUK guide price · model 54%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Dundee to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Dundee4.5
    Avg corners for
    ST Johnstone4
    Dundee10.5
    Avg total corners
    ST Johnstone9.33
    Dundee1.5
    Avg yellow cards
    ST Johnstone1
    Dundee13.5
    Avg shots
    ST Johnstone11
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 64% vs implied 55% · edge +9.6 pts
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 70%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    Over 3.5 CardsBetUK guide price · model 54%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Dundee

    LWWL
    Last 52W 0D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 0D 2L
    30 Aug 2026H Hibernian1-2
    22 Aug 2026A Dundee Utd2-0
    08 Aug 2026H Aberdeen2-0
    03 Aug 2026A Celtic0-1

    ST Johnstone

    LLW
    Last 51W 0D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 0D 2L
    29 Aug 2026A Heart Of Midlothian1-2
    08 Aug 2026A ST Mirren0-1
    02 Aug 2026H Kilmarnock4-3
    Market aligned with main pickDundee to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 82%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Dundee Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 64%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    5Dundee wins
    4Draws
    1ST Johnstone wins
    18 May 2025ST Johnstone v Dundee0-2
    01 Mar 2025Dundee v ST Johnstone1-1
    05 Jan 2025ST Johnstone v Dundee1-3
    26 Oct 2024Dundee v ST Johnstone1-2
    30 Mar 2024ST Johnstone v Dundee1-2
    11 Feb 2024Dundee v ST Johnstone2-1
    Market aligned with main pickDundee to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 64%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Dundee to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    Premiership

    Dundee7
    Played
    ST Johnstone7
    Dundee1.3
    Avg goals for
    ST Johnstone1.3
    Dundee1
    Avg goals against
    ST Johnstone1.4
    Dundee2
    Clean sheets
    ST Johnstone0
    Market aligned with main pickDundee to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    Load more odds for this section
    Dundee Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 64%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Season data supports Dundee to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    4Dundee1073132
    6ST Johnstone87223-1
    Dundee sit in position 4, while ST Johnstone sit in position 6, so table pressure belongs in the Dundee to Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    25%Dundee Over 2.5
    67%ST Johnstone Over 2.5
    2.4H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Dundee sit at 25% and ST Johnstone sit at 67% with the H2H average at 2.4 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Dundee v ST Johnstone prediction

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