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Dundee crestDundee
v
Hibernian crestHibernian

Premiership | Sun 30 Aug, 15:00

Dundee v Hibernian Stats

Data last updated: Sat 29 Aug 2026, 07:55 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Dundee aim to build on a recent morale-boosting win as they face a potent Hibernian side eager to climb the Premiership table. Dundee's survival fight intensifies with defensive vulnerabilities exposed against skillful attackers and rapid counters, areas where Hibernian excel. Hibernian's attacking threat is led by Jamie McGrath and Kieron Bowie, who create numerous chances through incisive middle-lane runs and quick transitions. The match promises a tactical battle between Dundee's physical, wide play and Hibernian's dynamic counter-attacks, with both teams motivated by their respective stakes in the league.

BT4Y best bet

Dundee Win & Over 2.5 Goals

  • Dundee have lost 4 of the last 6 meetings with Hibernian, but Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of those games.
  • Hibernian average 13.1 shots per game, nearly double Dundee's goals scored this season.
  • Dundee concede frequently on counter-attacks, a key strength of Hibernian's attack.
  • Dundee's recent win at Aberdeen could boost but defensive frailties remain a concern.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model sees strong value in Dundee winning combined with over 2.5 goals at 15/2 , reflecting a 34.6% chance versus an 11.8% implied market chance. Dundee's home resilience and attacking bursts, coupled with Hibernian's high shot volume and goal-scoring ability, suggest an open, high-scoring game. The historical frequency of over 2.5 goals in their meetings supports this. No data limitations affect , making this a compelling selection with a solid football rationale.

Model Chance34.6%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance11.8%
Strong positive
Historical Over 2.5 Goals Rate5 of last 6 matches
Strong positive
Dundee Defensive Vulnerability42 goals conceded
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Dundee's recent home win has lifted spirits, and their direct wide play combined with aerial strength can challenge Hibernian's defense. However, Hibernian's superior attacking quality and counter-attacking threat make this a competitive fixture likely to produce multiple goals, aligning well with the combined bet.

Main risk

Hibernian carry the stronger scoring threat, but Dundee must contribute for BTTS to land.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match dynamics and attacking threat

“Dundee's physical approach and home advantage create a platform for an upset, but Hibernian's clinical counter-attacks and shot volume ensure this will be an open, goal-rich contest.”

Key Data Signals

Dundee Win & Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Dundee have lost 4 of the last 6 meetings with Hibernian, but Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of those games.

Hibernian average 13.1 shots per game, nearly double Dundee's goals scored this season.

Dundee concede frequently on counter-attacks, a key strength of Hibernian's attack.

Dundee's recent win at Aberdeen could boost but defensive frailties remain a concern.

What To Watch In The Data

Dundee Win & Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • The last ten meetings between these teams have averaged 3.4 goals per game, with over 2.5 goals landing in the majority.
  • This trend reflects an open tempo and attacking intent from both sides, driven by Hibernian's counter-attacking style and Dundee's aerial and wide play, suggesting the match will likely continue this goal-rich pattern.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Dundee1.33
Avg goals scored
Hibernian1.5
Dundee0.33
Avg goals conceded
Hibernian1.5
Dundee0%
BTTS rate
Hibernian100%
Dundee0%
Over 2.5 goals
Hibernian100%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 60% · edge +6.8 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 39%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 47%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 2.5 goals is strongly supported by the fixture's history, with five of the last six meetings exceeding this threshold. Hibernian's average of 1.6 goals per game and Dundee's defensive struggles suggest multiple scoring opportunities, while Dundee's aerial threat provides additional goal potential, reinforcing the likelihood of a high-scoring game.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickDundee Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Dundee to WinBet365 guide price · model 48%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 75%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The 15/2 price for Dundee to win with over 2.5 goals offers significant value compared to the model's 34.6% chance. This discrepancy highlights market underestimation of Dundee's home attacking potential and the fixture's historical goal frequency, making the bet an attractive proposition without price warnings.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Dundee5
Avg corners for
Hibernian6
Dundee11.33
Avg total corners
Hibernian10.5
Dundee1.67
Avg yellow cards
Hibernian1
Dundee14.33
Avg shots
Hibernian13.5
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetUK guide price · Model 69% vs implied 60% · edge +9.1 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 75%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 10.5 CornersBetUK guide price
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 4.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 48%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Hibernian average more corners and maintain a higher shot volume, reflecting territorial pressure and attacking intent. Dundee's physical style and aerial duels contribute to set-piece opportunities and fouls, increasing card risk. The combination of sustained pressure and physical battles suggests a lively match with numerous shots, corners, and disciplinary actions.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Dundee

WWL
Last 52W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 1L
22 Aug 2026A Dundee Utd2-0
08 Aug 2026H Aberdeen2-0
03 Aug 2026A Celtic0-1

Hibernian

WL
Last 51W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 1L
09 Aug 2026A Rangers2-1
02 Aug 2026H Motherwell1-2
Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBetUK guide price · Model 79% vs implied 64% · edge +15 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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Dundee Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Dundee to WinBet365 guide price · model 48%
3
Check odds @ 3
Dundee's recent form includes a morale-boosting win, scoring 1.33 goals per game while conceding only 0.33 in the last matches, indicating improved defensive resilience. Hibernian maintain a strong attacking output with 1.5 goals per game but have conceded at the same rate, suggesting openness. This form dynamic supports a competitive, goal-filled encounter favoring Dundee's home edge.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Dundee wins
3Draws
5Hibernian wins
28 Feb 2026Dundee v Hibernian3-3
22 Nov 2025Hibernian v Dundee2-0
03 Aug 2025Dundee v Hibernian1-2
13 Apr 2025Hibernian v Dundee4-0
23 Nov 2024Dundee v Hibernian4-1
24 Aug 2024Hibernian v Dundee2-2
Market aligned with main pickDundee to WinBet365 guide price · Model 48% vs implied 33% · edge +15 pts
3
Check odds @ 3
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Recent head-to-head results show Hibernian winning four of the last six Premiership encounters, indicating a historical edge. However, the frequent over 2.5 goals outcome in these matches highlights a pattern of open, high-scoring games rather than defensive stalemates, supporting the combined bet on Dundee winning with multiple goals.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Season team stats

Premiership

Dundee3
Played
Hibernian2
Dundee1.3
Avg goals for
Hibernian1.5
Dundee0.3
Avg goals against
Hibernian1.5
Dundee2
Clean sheets
Hibernian0
Market aligned with main pickDundee Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Dundee to WinBet365 guide price · model 48%
3
Check odds @ 3
Dundee's season-long defensive record shows 42 goals conceded, highlighting vulnerability, while their attack struggles to maintain consistency. Hibernian's superior offensive stats, including 45 goals scored and higher shot accuracy, underline their attacking prowess. These season trends support expectations of a high-scoring match with Dundee leveraging home advantage to challenge Hibernian's defense.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
3Dundee632013
7Hibernian321010
Dundee sit 2nd in the current standings with 6 points, reflecting recent positive momentum, while Hibernian are 7th with 3 points, indicating a need to push higher. The standings context adds pressure on both sides: Dundee to consolidate survival hopes and Hibernian to maintain top-six ambitions, intensifying the competitive stakes of this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Dundee Over 2.5
100%Hibernian Over 2.5
3.4H2H avg goals
The last ten meetings between these teams have averaged 3.4 goals per game, with over 2.5 goals landing in the majority. This trend reflects an open tempo and attacking intent from both sides, driven by Hibernian's counter-attacking style and Dundee's aerial and wide play, suggesting the match will likely continue this goal-rich pattern.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Dundee v Hibernian prediction

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