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Dundalk crestDundalk
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Bohemians crestBohemians

Premier Division | Fri 02 Oct, 19:45

Dundalk v Bohemians Stats

Data last updated: Thu 01 Oct 2026, 09:18 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Dundalk and Bohemians meet in a Premier Division clash where attacking intent and goal-scoring form shape expectations. Bohemians sit third with strong offensive output, while Dundalk, fifth, have shown vulnerability at the back. Both teams have recent matches featuring multiple goals, setting the stage for an open encounter with potential for high scoring. Tactical openness and offensive roles suggest a lively game with chances at both ends, making goal markets particularly relevant for this fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Bohemians average 2.8 goals scored and concede 1.8 per game, showing attacking strength and defensive leaks.
  • Dundalk have an 80% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, indicating frequent high-scoring games.
  • Both teams have 80% BTTS rates, reflecting mutual goal-scoring tendencies.
  • Bohemians average 22 shots and 7.6 shots on target per match, highlighting offensive pressure.
  • Dundalk’s defensive record concedes 2.4 goals per game, suggesting susceptibility to goals.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 3.5 Goals as a strong value bet with a 55.8% chance against an implied market chance of 42%, indicating a 13.8% . Both teams demonstrate attacking prowess and defensive vulnerabilities, with Bohemians particularly prolific in shots and goals. Dundalk’s high goals conceded rate and both sides’ frequent high-scoring matches support the likelihood of a goal-rich game. The level of 71% reflects solid statistical backing without data limitations.

Model Probability55.8% model chance vs 42% implied (+13.8 pts)
Strong positive
Bohemians Offensive Output2.8 goals per game, 22 shots average
Strong positive
Dundalk Defensive Record2.4 goals conceded per game
Positive
Recent Over 2.5 Goals Rate80%+ for both teams
Strong positive
Value Edge55.8% model chance vs 42% implied (+13.8 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open game with both sides pushing forward aggressively, given Bohemians’ strong attack and Dundalk’s defensive frailties. The data supports a high-scoring match, making Over 3.5 Goals a compelling choice based on recent form and shot volumes.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and defensive vulnerability

“Bohemians’ offensive firepower combined with Dundalk’s defensive lapses sets the stage for a goal-laden encounter. The volume of shots and goal attempts from both sides underlines the likelihood of multiple goals.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Bohemians average 2.8 goals scored and concede 1.8 per game, showing attacking strength and defensive leaks.

Dundalk have an 80% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, indicating frequent high-scoring games.

Both teams have 80% BTTS rates, reflecting mutual goal-scoring tendencies.

Bohemians average 22 shots and 7.6 shots on target per match, highlighting offensive pressure.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • In the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 2.7, indicating a moderately high-scoring history.
  • Both teams’ recent matches show a strong trend towards over 2.5 goals, driven by attacking tempo and defensive gaps.
  • This trend supports expectations for an open game with multiple goal opportunities.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Dundalk1.4
Avg goals scored
Bohemians2.8
Dundalk2.4
Avg goals conceded
Bohemians1.8
Dundalk80%
BTTS rate
Bohemians80%
Dundalk80%
Over 2.5 goals
Bohemians100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 56% vs implied 42% · edge +13.8 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 30%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Both teams have high BTTS rates at 80%, and recent matches frequently exceed 2.5 goals, supporting a scenario of open play and mutual scoring. Bohemians’ 2.8 goals per game and Dundalk’s defensive concessions suggest multiple goals are likely, reinforcing the Over 3.5 Goals angle.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBohemians to WinBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Bohemians Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Dundalk to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Dundalk Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
The 55.8% for Over 3.5 Goals sits against roughly 42% implied by the current price (+13.8 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for Dundalk and 100% for Bohemians, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Dundalk

LLDWL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 3D 6L
18 Sep 2026H Shelbourne2-3
14 Sep 2026H St Patrick's Athl.0-4
11 Sep 2026A Waterford1-1
28 Aug 2026A Drogheda United3-2
21 Aug 2026H Galway United1-2

Bohemians

WWWWL
Last 54W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 107W 1D 2L
18 Sep 2026H Drogheda United2-1
11 Sep 2026A Galway United3-2
28 Aug 2026H Sligo Rovers3-0
21 Aug 2026H Derry City5-3
09 Aug 2026A Waterford1-3
Best odds for this sectionBohemians to WinBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Bohemians Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 48%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Dundalk to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Dundalk Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 18%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Recent form data shows both teams involved in high-scoring matches, with Dundalk’s games going over 2.5 goals 80% of the time and Bohemians at 100%. Dundalk’s 1.4 goals scored and 2.4 conceded per game contrast with Bohemians’ 2.8 scored and 1.8 conceded, highlighting a trend towards open, goal-rich encounters.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Dundalk Over 2.5
100%Bohemians Over 2.5
2.7H2H avg goals
In the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 2.7, indicating a moderately high-scoring history. Both teams’ recent matches show a strong trend towards over 2.5 goals, driven by attacking tempo and defensive gaps. This trend supports expectations for an open game with multiple goal opportunities.

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