Football Stats Hub

Derry City crestDerry City
v
Shamrock Rovers crestShamrock Rovers

Premier Division | Sun 30 Aug, 16:00

Derry City v Shamrock Rovers Stats

Data last updated: Sat 29 Aug 2026, 07:56 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Shamrock Rovers host Derry City at Tallaght Stadium in a Premier Division clash where the home side leads the table with a strong home record, winning eight of their last ten matches. Derry City arrive struggling for form, with only one win in their last nine games and three defeats in their last four away fixtures. Rovers rely on possession control and defensive solidity, while Derry seek to break their poor run with patient build-up and set-piece opportunities. Injuries and suspensions affect both sides, adding tactical intrigue to this contest with high stakes for both teams.

BT4Y match pick

Derry City Win & Under 2.5 Goals

  • Derry City have won only once in their last nine matches, showing poor recent form.
  • Shamrock Rovers boast the best defensive record in the league with nine clean sheets.
  • Derry City average 6.2 corners per game, indicating set-piece potential.
  • Shamrock Rovers average 66.1% possession at home, controlling match tempo.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model sees a 16.1% chance for Derry City to win while keeping the game under 2.5 goals, closely aligned with the implied . Despite Derry's poor recent form, their ability to generate corners and maintain possession suggests they can frustrate Shamrock Rovers' defense. The low scoring expectation fits both teams' recent defensive solidity and attacking limitations. However, the price is slightly short, so cautious staking is advised. No data limitations affect in this prediction.

Model chance16.1%
Positive
Implied odds chance16.7%
Neutral
Recent formDerry struggling, Shamrock strong at home
Neutral
Set-piece threatDerry average 6.2 corners per game
Positive
Defensive strengthShamrock Rovers best clean sheet record
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Derry City’s resilience and set-piece threat offer a tactical route to a narrow win, while Shamrock Rovers’ defensive strength and home control suggest a low-scoring match. This combination supports the selection of a Derry City win with under 2.5 goals, reflecting both sides’ current form and playing styles.

Main risk

Football loves a crisis, but Rovers refused to provide one.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and form-based insight

“Derry City's ability to leverage set-pieces and maintain possession could disrupt Shamrock Rovers' defensive rhythm, making a low-scoring upset plausible despite the home side's strong form.”

Key Data Signals

Derry City Win & Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Derry City have won only once in their last nine matches, showing poor recent form.

Shamrock Rovers boast the best defensive record in the league with nine clean sheets.

Derry City average 6.2 corners per game, indicating set-piece potential.

Shamrock Rovers average 66.1% possession at home, controlling match tempo.

What To Watch In The Data

Derry City Win & Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the last ten meetings, the average goals per match is 1.6, indicating a trend towards low-scoring games.
  • This supports the expectation of under 2.5 goals, with both teams likely to prioritize defensive organization and tactical control over open attacking play.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Derry City2
Avg goals scored
Shamrock Rovers1.8
Derry City2
Avg goals conceded
Shamrock Rovers1
Derry City60%
BTTS rate
Shamrock Rovers80%
Derry City40%
Over 2.5 goals
Shamrock Rovers60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 47%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 65%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2
Check odds @ 2
Both teams have shown defensive solidity recently, with Shamrock Rovers keeping nine clean sheets and Derry City averaging only 1.1 goals in their last ten games. The BTTS No and under 3.5 goals context fits a match likely to be cagey and low-scoring, reflecting tactical caution and injury impacts.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Derry City

LWDLW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
21 Aug 2026A Bohemians3-5
07 Aug 2026H Sligo Rovers2-0
02 Aug 2026A St Patrick's Athl.1-1
03 Jul 2026H Waterford2-4
26 Jun 2026H Drogheda United2-0

Shamrock Rovers

WDWWD
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 2D 2L
07 Aug 2026H Dundalk3-2
31 Jul 2026A Drogheda United0-0
03 Jul 2026A Sligo Rovers2-1
26 Jun 2026H Galway United3-1
22 Jun 2026H Derry City1-1
Market aligned with main pickDerry City Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 45% vs implied 53% · edge -7.6 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Derry City to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Derry City's recent form is poor, with just one win in nine matches and a low goal return, highlighting their struggles to convert possession into results. Shamrock Rovers show strong home form and defensive consistency, but injuries to key attackers may blunt their usual control, suggesting a tight contest with limited goals.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1Shamrock Rovers5427166519
7Derry City332871291
Shamrock Rovers top the Premier Division with 54 points, reflecting consistent performance and home control. Derry City sit seventh with 33 points, under pressure to improve results. The standings highlight the gap in quality and form, but Derry's need for points may drive a disciplined, cautious approach.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickDerry City Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 45% vs implied 53% · edge -7.6 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 62%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 47%
2
Check odds @ 2
Derry City to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
The for Derry City to win under 2.5 goals are slightly short compared to the model's 16.1% chance, indicating a price-sensitive market. The selection remains plausible given Derry's set-piece threat and Shamrock Rovers' injury-hit attack, but cautious stakes are recommended until improve.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Derry City6.2
Avg corners for
Shamrock Rovers3.6
Derry City11.2
Avg total corners
Shamrock Rovers7.2
Derry City1.6
Avg yellow cards
Shamrock Rovers2
Derry City14.4
Avg shots
Shamrock Rovers14.2
Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 62% vs implied 58% · edge +4.4 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Derry City average 6.2 corners per game, suggesting they will seek to exploit set-piece opportunities against a Shamrock Rovers side that concedes fewer corners. Shamrock Rovers maintain higher possession and shots on target, but injuries may reduce their attacking threat. Card risk is moderate, with Shamrock Rovers averaging 2 yellows per game, indicating a controlled but physical contest.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Derry City wins
3Draws
4Shamrock Rovers wins
22 Jun 2026Shamrock Rovers v Derry City1-1
24 Apr 2026Derry City v Shamrock Rovers1-0
06 Mar 2026Shamrock Rovers v Derry City1-0
31 Jan 2026Shamrock Rovers v Derry City0-1
26 Oct 2025Derry City v Shamrock Rovers2-1
03 Aug 2025Shamrock Rovers v Derry City2-0
Market aligned with main pickDerry City to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 39% · edge -11.5 pts
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 47%
2
Check odds @ 2
The head-to-head record over the past ten matches shows Shamrock Rovers with five wins, Derry City two, and three draws, indicating a slight edge for the home side. However, the low average goals per game (1.6) suggests tight contests, providing some background support for a cautious, low-scoring game favoring Derry City's chance for a narrow win.
Season team stats

Premier Division

Derry City28
Played
Shamrock Rovers27
Derry City1.4
Avg goals for
Shamrock Rovers1.6
Derry City1.3
Avg goals against
Shamrock Rovers0.9
Derry City7
Clean sheets
Shamrock Rovers10
Market aligned with main pickDerry City Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 45% vs implied 53% · edge -7.6 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Load more odds for this section
Derry City to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Over the season, Shamrock Rovers have the best defensive record with only 19 goals conceded and nine clean sheets, supporting a low-scoring outlook. Derry City's high number of draws reflects resilience but also an inability to secure wins, reinforcing the likelihood of a narrow result under 2.5 goals.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Derry City Over 2.5
60%Shamrock Rovers Over 2.5
1.6H2H avg goals
In the last ten meetings, the average goals per match is 1.6, indicating a trend towards low-scoring games. This supports the expectation of under 2.5 goals, with both teams likely to prioritize defensive organization and tactical control over open attacking play.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Derry City v Shamrock Rovers prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

More stats pages

Browse football stats pages

Open the main stats hub for the latest fixture dashboards.

Competition and hubs

Derry City v Shamrock Rovers predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hub

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

Read full prediction View match centre