Denmark

Wales

UEFA Nations League | Sun 27 Sep, 17:00

Denmark v Wales Stats

Data last updated: Sat 26 Sep 2026, 08:02 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Denmark hosts Wales in a UEFA Nations League clash where both teams are yet to secure points in the group. Denmark's attacking style and territorial control contrast with Wales' more cautious approach. Denmark's recent matches have seen high corner counts, reflecting their offensive pressure, while Wales tends to defend deep, potentially inviting more set-piece opportunities. The fixture's stakes are high as both sides seek their first win, setting up a tactical battle with Denmark likely pressing for control and Wales aiming to absorb pressure and counter.

BT4Y best bet

Over 9.5 Corners

Denmark averages 8 corners per match, significantly higher than Wales' 2.
Recent form shows Denmark's matches have consistently gone over 2.5 goals, indicating open play and attacking intent.
Denmark's average shots per game (13) and shots on target (7) suggest sustained pressure leading to corners.
Wales' defensive style and lower attacking output may result in conceding more corners under pressure.
Model is high at 88%, with a 21.4% on Over 9.5 Corners at of 2.1.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies strong value in Over 9.5 Corners based on Denmark's high average corner count and attacking control, combined with Wales' defensive posture that often concedes set pieces. Denmark's sustained pressure, reflected in high shot volumes and corner averages, supports the likelihood of surpassing 9.5 corners. The price offers positive value with a 21.4% edge and solid . No price warnings apply, making this a well-supported selection for standard stakes.

Denmark average corners8 per game

Strong positive

Wales average corners2 per game

Neutral

Model confidence88%

Strong positive

Value edge21.4%

Strong positive

Implied chance vs model chance47.6% vs 69%

Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Denmark's aggressive wing play and high shot volume create sustained pressure that typically results in numerous corners. Wales' defensive setup may invite repeated attacks, increasing corner chances. The data supports Over 9.5 Corners as a tactical outcome reflecting Denmark's offensive style and Wales' tendency to concede set pieces under pressure.

Main risk

Corner volume can be sterile if territory does not become shots, crosses or repeat box entries.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Corner market tactical and statistical insight

“Denmark's attacking intensity combined with Wales' defensive resilience sets the stage for a corner-heavy match, making Over 9.5 Corners a compelling angle given the teams' contrasting styles and recent stats.”

Key Data Signals

Over 9.5 Corners evidence

Denmark averages 8 corners per match, significantly higher than Wales' 2.

Recent form shows Denmark's matches have consistently gone over 2.5 goals, indicating open play and attacking intent.

Denmark's average shots per game (13) and shots on target (7) suggest sustained pressure leading to corners.

Wales' defensive style and lower attacking output may result in conceding more corners under pressure.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 9.5 Corners notes

In the last three head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3, indicating open games.
Denmark's recent matches have a 100% over 2.5 goals rate, suggesting a high-tempo game with frequent attacking transitions.
This trend supports a match environment conducive to multiple corners through sustained offensive pressure and defensive gaps.

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Denmark8

Avg corners for

Wales2

Denmark12

Avg total corners

Wales12

Denmark3

Avg yellow cards

Wales1

Denmark13

Avg shots

Wales5

Market aligned with main pickOver 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts

2.1

Check odds @ 2.1

Denmark averages 8 corners per game with a high volume of shots (13) and shots on target (7), indicating sustained offensive pressure that naturally leads to corners. Wales' lower average corners (2) and fewer shots reflect a more defensive approach, likely resulting in conceding corners under pressure. Card data shows moderate fouling, which can disrupt attacks but also lead to set-piece opportunities.

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Useful next reads

UEFA Nations League hub Denmark v Wales prediction corners trends hub football cards angles player stats betting angles football stats hub football hub football predictions hub best bets research acca fixture filtering

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Denmark2

Avg goals scored

Wales0

Denmark3

Avg goals conceded

Wales1

Denmark100%

BTTS rate

Wales0%

Denmark100%

Over 2.5 goals

Wales0%

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +14.3 pts

1.91

Check odds @ 1.91

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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 49%

2.08

Check odds @ 2.08

Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 73%

1.22

Check odds @ 1.22

Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 55%

1.73

Check odds @ 1.73

Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 37%

2.75

Check odds @ 2.75

BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 37%

1.8

Check odds @ 1.8

Denmark's recent matches have consistently featured over 2.5 goals and both teams to score, highlighting open and attacking games. Wales' matches have been lower scoring, but the attacking tempo from Denmark suggests a dynamic game with multiple goal attempts, indirectly supporting high corner counts through offensive pressure and set-piece creation.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +14.3 pts

1.91

Check odds @ 1.91

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Wales Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 41%

3.8

Check odds @ 3.8

Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 55%

1.73

Check odds @ 1.73

Denmark to WinBetMGM guide price · model 60%

1.48

Check odds @ 1.48

Denmark Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 67%

1.25

Check odds @ 1.25

Wales to WinBet365 guide price · model 19%

6.25

Check odds @ 6.25

DrawBetMGM guide price · model 22%

4.5

Check odds @ 4.5

The Over 9.5 Corners market is priced attractively at 2.1, reflecting a 47.6% implied chance which is significantly lower than the model's 69% probability. This gap indicates strong value, supported by Denmark's corner-heavy attacking play and Wales' defensive tendencies. The market is not price-sensitive and offers a clear positive expected value for standard stakes.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Denmark

Last 50W 0D 1L

Last 5 record

Last 100W 0D 1L

24 Sep 2026A Norway2-3

Wales

Last 50W 0D 1L

Last 5 record

Last 100W 0D 1L

24 Sep 2026A Portugal0-1

Best odds for this sectionWales Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 41% vs implied 26% · edge +15 pts

3.8

Check odds @ 3.8

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Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 82%

1.12

Check odds @ 1.12

Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 45%

2.62

Check odds @ 2.62

Denmark to WinBetMGM guide price · model 60%

1.48

Check odds @ 1.48

Denmark Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 67%

1.25

Check odds @ 1.25

Wales to WinBet365 guide price · model 19%

6.25

Check odds @ 6.25

DrawBetMGM guide price · model 22%

4.5

Check odds @ 4.5

Denmark's recent form shows a 100% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring, reflecting open games with high attacking output and corner counts. Wales has not matched this trend, but Denmark's control in recent fixtures suggests sustained pressure and corner opportunities continue to be a feature, supporting the Over 9.5 Corners selection.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Denmark wins

0Draws

0Wales wins

26 Jun 2021Wales v Denmark0-4

16 Nov 2018Wales v Denmark1-2

09 Sep 2018Denmark v Wales2-0

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +14.3 pts

1.91

Check odds @ 1.91

Load more odds for this section

Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 55%

1.73

Check odds @ 1.73

Denmark to WinBetMGM guide price · model 60%

1.48

Check odds @ 1.48

Wales to WinBet365 guide price · model 19%

6.25

Check odds @ 6.25

DrawBetMGM guide price · model 22%

4.5

Check odds @ 4.5

The three previous meetings between Denmark and Wales have averaged three goals per game, indicating open and attacking contests. While the sample is limited, this suggests a pattern of offensive play that can lead to increased corner counts. However, the small sample size means current form and tactical setups carry more weight for corner expectations.

Season team stats

UEFA Nations League

Denmark1

Played

Wales1

Denmark2

Avg goals for

Wales0

Denmark3

Avg goals against

Wales1

Denmark0

Clean sheets

Wales0

Best odds for this sectionWales Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 41% vs implied 26% · edge +15 pts

3.8

Check odds @ 3.8

Load more odds for this section

Denmark to WinBetMGM guide price · model 60%

1.48

Check odds @ 1.48

Denmark Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 67%

1.25

Check odds @ 1.25

Wales to WinBet365 guide price · model 19%

6.25

Check odds @ 6.25

Season-long data confirms Denmark's strong attacking profile with an average of 8 corners per match, consistent shot creation, and offensive pressure. Wales' defensive stats show fewer corners won and lower attacking threat, reinforcing the expectation that Denmark will dominate set-piece opportunities, pushing the total corners over 9.5 in this fixture.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
3	Denmark	0	1	0	0	1	-1
4	Wales	0	1	0	0	1	-1

Both teams sit mid-table in the Nations League group with zero points, increasing the urgency to secure a win. Denmark's higher ranking and home advantage suggest they will press aggressively, likely generating more corners. Wales' position may encourage a cautious approach, further increasing corner chances as Denmark attacks repeatedly.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Denmark Over 2.5

0%Wales Over 2.5

3H2H avg goals

In the last three head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3, indicating open games. Denmark's recent matches have a 100% over 2.5 goals rate, suggesting a high-tempo game with frequent attacking transitions. This trend supports a match environment conducive to multiple corners through sustained offensive pressure and defensive gaps.

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Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

Read full prediction View match centre

Football Stats Hub

Denmark v Wales Stats

Match Report

Over 9.5 Corners

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

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Denmark

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Football Stats Hub

Denmark v Wales Stats

Match Report

Over 9.5 Corners

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

Denmark

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