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DC United crestDC United
v
SC Paderborn 07 crestSC Paderborn 07

Friendlies Clubs | Thu 01 Oct, 00:30

DC United v SC Paderborn 07 Stats

Data last updated: Wed 30 Sep 2026, 09:23 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This friendly match features DC United hosting SC Paderborn 07 in a contest where SC Paderborn arrives in notably better recent form. SC Paderborn has accumulated 10 points with a strong attacking output, averaging 2.5 goals per game, while DC United has struggled offensively, scoring just 0.33 goals per game and earning only 2 points. The tactical setup likely favors SC Paderborn's more dynamic attack against a DC United side that has conceded more frequently. The match offers a chance for SC Paderborn to build momentum and test their offensive efficiency against a less potent defense.

BT4Y best bet

SC Paderborn 07 to Win

  • SC Paderborn has a 70% to win, with a 26.5% at 2.3 .
  • SC Paderborn averages 2.5 goals per game, triple DC United's 0.33 goals per game.
  • SC Paderborn's BTTS rate is 75%, indicating frequent scoring from both sides in their matches.
  • DC United has a lower recent form with just 2 points and a 33% Over 2.5 goals rate.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model strongly favors SC Paderborn 07 to win based on their superior recent form and attacking statistics. SC Paderborn's average of 2.5 goals per game and 75% BTTS rate contrasts sharply with DC United's limited scoring and lower points tally. The implied probability from is significantly lower than the model's 70% chance, indicating good value. The data quality is solid for both teams, supporting in this selection. This pick reflects SC Paderborn's offensive edge and consistency in friendlies.

Recent FormSC Paderborn 07 has 10 points vs DC United's 2
Strong positive
Goals Scored2.5 per game for SC Paderborn vs 0.33 for DC United
Strong positive
BTTS Rate75% for SC Paderborn vs 33% for DC United
Positive
Value Edge69.1% model chance vs 54.1% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

SC Paderborn 07's superior attacking form and recent results make them the clear favorite in this friendly. Their ability to create and convert chances consistently contrasts with DC United's struggles to score, suggesting SC Paderborn will control the match and secure the win.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“SC Paderborn's dynamic forward line and midfield creativity should overwhelm DC United's defense, making their victory the most logical outcome based on current form and attacking efficiency.”

Key Data Signals

SC Paderborn 07 to Win evidence

SC Paderborn has a 70% to win, with a 26.5% at 2.3 .

SC Paderborn averages 2.5 goals per game, triple DC United's 0.33 goals per game.

SC Paderborn's BTTS rate is 75%, indicating frequent scoring from both sides in their matches.

DC United has a lower recent form with just 2 points and a 33% Over 2.5 goals rate.

What To Watch In The Data

SC Paderborn 07 to Win notes

  • Recent trends show SC Paderborn's matches frequently exceed 2.5 goals, with a 75% over 2.5 rate in recent games.
  • This suggests a fast-paced, attacking encounter likely to produce multiple goals, contrasting with DC United's lower scoring frequency and defensive challenges.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

DC United0.33
Avg goals scored
SC Paderborn 072.5
DC United1.33
Avg goals conceded
SC Paderborn 071.25
DC United33%
BTTS rate
SC Paderborn 0775%
DC United33%
Over 2.5 goals
SC Paderborn 0775%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 50% vs implied 37% · edge +12.7 pts
2.68
Check odds @ 2.68
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 72%
1.13
Check odds @ 1.13
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 36%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
SC Paderborn's matches show a high frequency of goals and BTTS outcomes, with a 75% BTTS rate and 2.5 goals per game average. In contrast, DC United's lower scoring and BTTS rates suggest SC Paderborn's attack will likely find success, while DC United may also contribute offensively, supporting a potentially open game.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSC Paderborn 07 to WinBetfred guide price · Model 69% vs implied 54% · edge +15 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
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SC Paderborn 07 Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
The 69.1% for SC Paderborn 07 to Win sits against roughly 54.1% implied by the current price (+15 pts). SC Paderborn 07 have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 2 for DC United.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

player stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

DC United

DDL
Last 50W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 2D 1L
11 Feb 2026H Minnesota United FC0-0
07 Feb 2026A Portland Timbers0-0
31 Jan 2026A Los Angeles Galaxy1-4

SC Paderborn 07

DWWW
Last 53W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 0L
08 Aug 2026A Werder Bremen2-2
01 Aug 2026A VfL Osnabrück2-0
17 Jul 2026H Fagiano Okayama3-1
08 Jan 2026H Charleroi3-2
Market aligned with main pickSC Paderborn 07 to WinBetfred guide price · Model 69% vs implied 54% · edge +15 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
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SC Paderborn 07 Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
SC Paderborn's recent form is markedly superior, with 10 points and consistent goal scoring compared to DC United's 2 points and limited offensive output. This momentum suggests SC Paderborn will approach the match with and tactical cohesion, increasing their chances of victory.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

33%DC United Over 2.5
75%SC Paderborn 07 Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Recent trends show SC Paderborn's matches frequently exceed 2.5 goals, with a 75% over 2.5 rate in recent games. This suggests a fast-paced, attacking encounter likely to produce multiple goals, contrasting with DC United's lower scoring frequency and defensive challenges.

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