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DC United crestDC United
v
New York Red Bulls crestNew York Red Bulls

Major League Soccer | Thu 15 Oct, 00:30

DC United v New York Red Bulls Stats

Data last updated: Wed 14 Oct 2026, 07:53 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Major League Soccer clash sees New York Red Bulls travel to face DC United in a fixture where both teams have shown contrasting defensive records and recent form. New York Red Bulls currently sit higher in the standings with a six-point advantage and have demonstrated more defensive solidity, conceding fewer goals on average. DC United's recent matches have been high-scoring affairs, often conceding multiple goals, which could test their backline against a Red Bulls side featuring effective attackers. The match carries significance for playoff positioning, adding intensity to the tactical battle expected at kickoff.

BT4Y best bet

New York Red Bulls to Win

  • New York Red Bulls have a 61.8% to win, indicating strong value at 3.5 .
  • DC United concede an average of 2 goals per game, while New York Red Bulls concede 1.2, showing defensive edge for Red Bulls.
  • DC United's recent matches have an 80% rate of over 2.5 goals, suggesting open games.
  • Top attackers like E. Choupo-Moting and J. Hall provide New York Red Bulls with consistent goal threats.
  • New York Red Bulls have earned 9 points recently compared to DC United's 5, reflecting better form.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors New York Red Bulls to win with a 61.8% chance, supported by their stronger defensive record and superior recent form. Despite DC United's higher average shots and corners, their defensive frailties and lower points tally weaken their position. New York's attackers, including E. Hall, show efficient shot conversion and key pass metrics, enhancing scoring potential. The price offers positive value given the implied chance is significantly lower than the model's estimate, making this a compelling selection without major price warnings.

Model Win Probability61.8%
Strong positive
Defensive StrengthRed Bulls concede 1.2 goals vs DC United's 2.0
Strong positive
Recent Form PointsRed Bulls 9 vs DC United 5
Positive
Attacking EfficiencyChoupo-Moting 0.71 goals/90, Hall 0.43 goals/90
Positive
Over 2.5 Goals RateDC United 80%, Red Bulls 40%
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

New York Red Bulls' superior defensive record and recent form give them a tactical and statistical edge over DC United. Their ability to convert chances through key attackers combined with DC United's defensive vulnerabilities makes the Red Bulls the favored side to secure victory in this matchup.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“New York Red Bulls demonstrate a balanced approach with solid defense and efficient attacking options, positioning them well to capitalize on DC United's defensive lapses and secure a crucial away win.”

Key Data Signals

New York Red Bulls to Win evidence

New York Red Bulls have a 61.8% to win, indicating strong value at 3.5 .

DC United concede an average of 2 goals per game, while New York Red Bulls concede 1.2, showing defensive edge for Red Bulls.

DC United's recent matches have an 80% rate of over 2.5 goals, suggesting open games.

Top attackers like E. Choupo-Moting and J. Hall provide New York Red Bulls with consistent goal threats.

What To Watch In The Data

New York Red Bulls to Win notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.4, indicating a relatively high-scoring trend.
  • DC United's recent over 2.5 goals rate of 80% contrasts with New York's 40%, suggesting the match could feature fluctuating tempo and goal opportunities driven by DC United's attacking openness and New York's counterattacking efficiency.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

DC United1.2
Avg goals scored
New York Red Bulls1.2
DC United2
Avg goals conceded
New York Red Bulls1.2
DC United60%
BTTS rate
New York Red Bulls20%
DC United80%
Over 2.5 goals
New York Red Bulls40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBetMGM guide price · Model 47% vs implied 40% · edge +7.3 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 81%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 41%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 45%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
DC United's matches frequently feature over 2.5 goals with a rate of 80%, contrasting with New York Red Bulls' 40%. This disparity suggests a game where DC United's defensive openness may lead to more goals, but New York's lower BTTS rate indicates they may keep the scoring more controlled, creating an intriguing goals and BTTS dynamic.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickNew York Red Bulls to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
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New York Red Bulls Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 66%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
The 43.6% for New York Red Bulls to Win sits against roughly 28.6% implied by the current price (+15 pts). New York Red Bulls have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 5 for DC United.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

DC United

LDLDW
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 5D 4L
11 Oct 2026A Inter Miami0-4
27 Sep 2026A Vancouver Whitecaps3-3
20 Sep 2026H Charlotte1-2
13 Sep 2026H Atlanta United FC0-0
10 Sep 2026H Columbus Crew2-1

New York Red Bulls

WLWWL
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 5L
11 Oct 2026H San Diego4-1
01 Oct 2026H St. Louis City0-3
19 Sep 2026A New York City FC1-0
13 Sep 2026A Columbus Crew1-0
10 Sep 2026A Los Angeles FC0-2
Market aligned with main pickNew York Red Bulls to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
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Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
New York Red Bulls Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
New York Red Bulls have collected 9 points recently compared to DC United's 5, reflecting better momentum and . This form advantage is supported by a tighter defense and more efficient attack, suggesting New York is better positioned to control the match tempo and capitalize on scoring chances.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%DC United Over 2.5
40%New York Red Bulls Over 2.5
3.4H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.4, indicating a relatively high-scoring trend. DC United's recent over 2.5 goals rate of 80% contrasts with New York's 40%, suggesting the match could feature fluctuating tempo and goal opportunities driven by DC United's attacking openness and New York's counterattacking efficiency.

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