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Criciuma crestCriciuma
v
Avai crestAvai

Serie B | Sun 27 Sep, 15:00

Criciuma v Avai Stats

Data last updated: Mon 28 Sep 2026, 00:56 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Criciuma hosts Avai in a Serie B clash where both teams have struggled to find consistent attacking form recently. Criciuma ranks 6th with 47 points but has scored only 0.6 goals per game in their last five matches, while Avai sits 17th with 30 points and a similar scoring rate. Both sides have shown defensive vulnerabilities, conceding an average of 2 and 1.6 goals respectively, suggesting a cautious tactical approach may prevail. This fixture's stakes and recent low-scoring trends set the stage for a tight contest with limited goal-scoring opportunities.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Both teams average just 0.6 goals per game in recent matches, indicating low scoring potential.
  • Criciuma concedes 2 goals per game recently, Avai concedes 1.6, reflecting defensive frailties but also cautious play.
  • Both teams have a 40% rate of Over 2.5 Goals in recent games, showing moderate frequency of low-scoring matches.
  • Avai’s BTTS rate is 60%, higher than Criciuma’s 20%, but overall goal output remains low.
  • The model estimates a 65.6% chance for Under 2.5 Goals, with a positive at of 1.8.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 65.6% probability, reflecting both teams' recent struggles to score and moderate defensive records. Criciuma and Avai have low goal averages and modest shot accuracy, suggesting limited clear-cut chances. The at 1.8 offer positive value given the implied chance of 55.6%. This pick is supported by the teams' cautious recent form and the tactical likelihood of a tight match with few goals. No data limitations affect in this selection.

Recent low scoring0.6 goals per game each
Strong positive
Defensive concession rates2.0 and 1.6 goals against
Positive
Model probability65.6% model chance vs 57.1% implied (+8.5 pts)
Strong positive
Market odds65.6% model chance vs 57.1% implied (+8.5 pts)
Strong positive
BTTS ratesMixed but low scoring overall
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a sensible choice given both teams’ recent low scoring and defensive caution. Criciuma’s home form and Avai’s struggles to score consistently suggest a tight game with few clear chances. The data supports a controlled tempo match where goals will be limited, making this a tactically sound and statistically backed pick.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and tactical match shape

“This fixture looks set for a tactical battle with limited goal-scoring opportunities, as both teams have struggled to convert chances recently. Under 2.5 Goals aligns well with the defensive tendencies and low shot accuracy seen in their recent matches.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Both teams average just 0.6 goals per game in recent matches, indicating low scoring potential.

Criciuma concedes 2 goals per game recently, Avai concedes 1.6, reflecting defensive frailties but also cautious play.

Avai’s BTTS rate is 60%, higher than Criciuma’s 20%, but overall goal output remains low.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.1, indicating a tendency toward matches with fewer than three goals.
  • This trend, combined with recent form data, suggests a controlled tempo and defensive solidity that favors Under 2.5 Goals in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Criciuma0.6
Avg goals scored
Avai0.6
Criciuma2
Avg goals conceded
Avai1.6
Criciuma20%
BTTS rate
Avai60%
Criciuma40%
Over 2.5 goals
Avai40%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 57% · edge +8.5 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 44%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 38%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 56%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Recent data shows both Criciuma and Avai average only 0.6 goals per game in their last five matches, with BTTS rates diverging (20% for Criciuma, 60% for Avai). Despite Avai's higher BTTS rate, the overall low scoring and modest shot accuracy point to a match likely featuring few goals and limited goal exchanges.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 52% · edge +7.6 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Avai Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 44%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Avai to WinBetMGM guide price · model 33%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Criciuma to WinBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Criciuma Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 61%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
The 65.6% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 57.1% implied by the current price (+8.5 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Criciuma and 40% for Avai, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Criciuma

LLLWL
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 6L
22 Sep 2026H Operario-PR0-2
13 Sep 2026A Atletico Goianiense0-4
09 Sep 2026H Juventude0-2
04 Sep 2026H Cuiaba2-0
30 Aug 2026A CRB1-2

Avai

LDLLL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 6L
20 Sep 2026A Goias1-2
15 Sep 2026H Vila Nova1-1
09 Sep 2026A Fortaleza EC0-1
05 Sep 2026A Novorizontino1-3
30 Aug 2026H Atletico Goianiense0-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Avai Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 44%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Avai to WinBetMGM guide price · model 33%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 77%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Criciuma to WinBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Criciuma Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Both teams have struggled to score recently, with Criciuma earning 3 points and Avai just 1 in their last five matches. Their low goal averages (0.6 each) and high goals conceded (2 and 1.6 respectively) reflect defensive vulnerabilities but also a lack of offensive sharpness, supporting the likelihood of a low-scoring encounter.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Criciuma Over 2.5
40%Avai Over 2.5
2.1H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.1, indicating a tendency toward matches with fewer than three goals. This trend, combined with recent form data, suggests a controlled tempo and defensive solidity that favors Under 2.5 Goals in this fixture.

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