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Cremonese crestCremonese
v
Lazio crestLazio

Serie A | Mon 04 May, 17:30

Cremonese v Lazio Stats

Data last updated: Thu 18 Jun 2026, 14:31 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Cremonese face Lazio in Serie A on Mon 04 May, 17:30. Lazio's defensive record on the road is among the best in the league, while Cremonese struggle to find home goals. Momentum is firmly with the visitors as the hosts struggle to secure victories.

BT4Y lean · price warning

— Lazio to Win Lazio come into this match as clear favourites based on the stark contrast in consistency between the two sides

  • At 11/8, Cremonese Win implies roughly 42%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 27%.
  • Cremonese have won just once in 20 matches and have a dismal scoring record at home in 2026.
  • Lazio have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 4 for Cremonese.
  • Lazio have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Cremonese Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Cremonese sit 18 in the table, while Lazio sit 9, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.
Price warning

— Lazio to Win Lazio come into this match as clear favourites based on the stark contrast in consistency between the two sides is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 42% while the model sits nearer 27% (-15.1 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Lazio Draw No Bet shows a +26.2 pts edge at 2.05.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 27% for Cremonese Win sits against roughly 42% implied by the current price. Lazio have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 4 for Cremonese. Cremonese have won just once in 20 matches and have a dismal scoring record at home in 2026.

Model chance vs price27% model chance against roughly 42% implied
Negative
Lazio have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points.Visible data support
Positive
Lazio have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Cremonese have won just once in 20 matches.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Cremonese Win is the preferred angle because cremonese have won just once in 20 matches and have a dismal scoring record at home in 2026. Lazio have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 4 for Cremonese. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

Cremonese Win evidence

Cremonese have won just once in 20 matches and have a dismal scoring record at home in 2026.

Lazio have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 4 for Cremonese.

Lazio have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Cremonese Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Cremonese sit 18 in the table, while Lazio sit 9, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Cremonese Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Cremonese3.8
    Avg corners for
    Lazio3.6
    Cremonese8
    Avg total corners
    Lazio8.8
    Cremonese1.2
    Avg yellow cards
    Lazio2
    Cremonese8.4
    Avg shots
    Lazio11.2
    Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Model 59% vs implied 48% · edge +11.2 pts
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 59%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Useful next reads

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    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Cremonese0.6
    Avg goals scored
    Lazio1.6
    Cremonese1.4
    Avg goals conceded
    Lazio1
    Cremonese20%
    BTTS rate
    Lazio40%
    Cremonese40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Lazio20%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 50% vs implied 29% · edge +21.4 pts
    3.5
    Check odds @ 3.5
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 60%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 44%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 62%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 26%
    4
    Check odds @ 4
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 54%
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickCremonese to WinBetUK guide price · Model 27% vs implied 31% · edge -4.3 pts
    3.2
    Check odds @ 3.2
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%
    3.5
    Check odds @ 3.5
    Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 59%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 59%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 44%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Cremonese Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Cremonese to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Cremonese

    LDLLW
    Last 51W 1D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 2D 7L
    24 Apr 2026A Napoli0-4
    19 Apr 2026H Torino0-0
    11 Apr 2026A Cagliari0-1
    05 Apr 2026H Bologna1-2
    21 Mar 2026A Parma2-0

    Lazio

    DWLDW
    Last 52W 2D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 3D 3L
    27 Apr 2026H Udinese3-3
    18 Apr 2026A Napoli2-0
    13 Apr 2026A Fiorentina0-1
    04 Apr 2026H Parma1-1
    22 Mar 2026A Bologna2-0
    Market aligned with main pickCremonese to WinBetUK guide price · Model 27% vs implied 31% · edge -4.3 pts
    3.2
    Check odds @ 3.2
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 49%
    1.61
    Check odds @ 1.61
    Cremonese Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    0Cremonese wins
    1Draws
    3Lazio wins
    20 Dec 2025Lazio v Cremonese0-0
    28 May 2023Lazio v Cremonese3-2
    18 Sep 2022Cremonese v Lazio0-4
    14 Jan 2020Lazio v Cremonese4-0
    Market aligned with main pickCremonese to WinBetUK guide price · Model 27% vs implied 31% · edge -4.3 pts
    3.2
    Check odds @ 3.2
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%
    3.5
    Check odds @ 3.5
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 44%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Cremonese to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Serie A

    Cremonese38
    Played
    Lazio38
    Cremonese0.8
    Avg goals for
    Lazio1.1
    Cremonese1.5
    Avg goals against
    Lazio1.1
    Cremonese11
    Clean sheets
    Lazio15
    Market aligned with main pickCremonese to WinBetUK guide price · Model 27% vs implied 31% · edge -4.3 pts
    3.2
    Check odds @ 3.2
    Load more odds for this section
    Cremonese Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Season data supports Cremonese to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    9Lazio54381412121
    18Cremonese343881020-25
    Cremonese sit in position 18, while Lazio sit in position 9, so table pressure belongs in the Cremonese Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    40%Cremonese Over 2.5
    20%Lazio Over 2.5
    3.25H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Cremonese sit at 40% and Lazio sit at 20% with the H2H average at 3.25 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Cremonese v Lazio prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Next step

    Betting context

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