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Vila Nova crestVila Nova

Serie B | Mon 27 Jul, 23:30

CRB v Vila Nova Stats

Data last updated: Tue 28 Jul 2026, 12:08 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

CRB hosts Vila Nova in a Serie B clash where both teams seek to consolidate their positions. CRB, sitting 12th, aims to leverage home advantage against the 3rd-placed Vila Nova. Recent form shows CRB with 10 points from their last matches, slightly outperforming Vila Nova's 6 points. The match promises tactical intensity, with CRB looking to capitalize on attacking players like Mikael and Luiz Phellype, while Vila Nova will rely on Rafa Silva's threat. The fixture's stakes are high as both sides push for promotion contention, making this a competitive encounter with fine margins.

BT4Y best bet

CRB to Win

  • CRB holds a 60.3% to win, reflecting solid home advantage.
  • CRB averages 16 shots per game with 4.8 on target, outshooting Vila Nova.
  • Vila Nova ranks higher (3rd) but has collected fewer recent points than CRB.
  • CRB's Mikael is a potent attacking threat with 12 goals and 1.81 shots on target per 90 minutes.
  • Both teams have a 60% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, indicating attacking openness.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors CRB to win due to their stronger recent form and superior attacking output at home, averaging 16 shots and nearly 5 on target per game. Key players like Mikael and Luiz Phellype provide consistent goal threat, supported by solid service from midfield. Vila Nova's defensive record is slightly better but their recent points tally lags behind. The match's attacking tendencies and CRB's home advantage underpin the 60.3% win probability. No price warning applies, making this a standard pick.

Recent form advantageCRB has 10 recent points vs Vila Nova's 6
Positive
Attacking outputCRB averages 16 shots, 4.8 on target per game
Strong positive
Key player threatMikael with 12 goals and 1.81 SOT/90
Strong positive
Defensive concessionCRB concedes 1.6 goals per game, slightly higher
Neutral
League standingVila Nova 3rd vs CRB 12th
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

CRB's recent momentum and home attacking firepower make them the likely winners in this Serie B fixture. Their ability to generate more shots and key chances, led by Mikael, should test Vila Nova's defense, which has been solid but less potent offensively. CRB's form edge and attacking depth provide a tactical and statistical basis for backing them to win.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · CRB to Win

“CRB's home attacking control and key players like Mikael create a strong platform for victory despite Vila Nova's higher table standing. Their recent form and shot volume suggest they can break down Vila Nova's defense effectively.”

Key Data Signals

CRB to Win evidence

CRB holds a 60.3% to win, reflecting solid home advantage.

CRB averages 16 shots per game with 4.8 on target, outshooting Vila Nova.

Vila Nova ranks higher (3rd) but has collected fewer recent points than CRB.

CRB's Mikael is a potent attacking threat with 12 goals and 1.81 shots on target per 90 minutes.

What To Watch In The Data

CRB to Win notes

  • Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.6, indicating relatively low-scoring encounters.
  • However, recent form and attacking stats suggest this match could see more goals, supported by both teams' 60% over 2.5 goals rate this season.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

CRB5.6
Avg corners for
Vila Nova3.6
CRB10.4
Avg total corners
Vila Nova8.8
CRB2.6
Avg yellow cards
Vila Nova1.8
CRB16
Avg shots
Vila Nova11
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 48%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 54%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
CRB averages 5.6 corners and 2.6 yellow cards per game, indicating sustained pressure and a physical style. Vila Nova's lower averages (3.5 corners, 1.25 yellows) suggest less territorial control but a disciplined approach. CRB's higher shot volume supports an attacking tempo.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

CRB1.2
Avg goals scored
Vila Nova1
CRB1.6
Avg goals conceded
Vila Nova1.4
CRB40%
BTTS rate
Vila Nova60%
CRB60%
Over 2.5 goals
Vila Nova60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 55% · edge +12.1 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 51%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 33%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 53%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Both teams have a 60% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, indicating an open game with attacking intent. CRB's 1.2 goals per game and Vila Nova's 1 goal per game suggest moderate scoring, with BTTS likely given Vila Nova's 60% BTTS rate.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickCRB to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 53% · edge +7.7 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
CRB Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 51%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 54%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
The 60.3% for CRB to win reflects a balanced but confident view based on home advantage and attacking metrics. Without explicit , this is a price-sensitive pick with no strong but justified by form and shot control.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

CRB

WWDLW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 3L
22 Jul 2026A Ceara1-0
17 Jul 2026H Nautico Recife2-1
12 Jul 2026H Goias2-2
04 Jul 2026A Londrina0-5
01 Jul 2026A Botafogo SP1-0

Vila Nova

WLLWL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 0D 4L
22 Jul 2026H Fortaleza EC2-1
18 Jul 2026A Criciuma0-2
10 Jul 2026A Juventude0-1
06 Jul 2026H São Bernardo2-1
26 Jun 2026A Novorizontino1-2
Market aligned with main pickCRB to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 53% · edge +7.7 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
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Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 85%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
CRB Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
CRB's recent haul of 10 points contrasts with Vila Nova's 6, showing better momentum. CRB's slightly higher goals scored and conceded per game reflect an aggressive style, while Vila Nova's form dip may affect in this away fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4CRB wins
2Draws
4Vila Nova wins
21 Mar 2026Vila Nova v CRB2-2
15 Nov 2025CRB v Vila Nova2-0
23 Jul 2025Vila Nova v CRB2-0
05 Sep 2024Vila Nova v CRB1-0
17 May 2024CRB v Vila Nova1-0
03 Sep 2023Vila Nova v CRB0-1
Market aligned with main pickCRB to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 53% · edge +7.7 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 51%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
The 10 previous meetings between CRB and Vila Nova have averaged 1.6 goals per game, indicating tight contests historically. This suggests a cautious tactical approach from both sides, though current attacking form hints at a potentially more open game this time.
Season team stats

Serie B

CRB20
Played
Vila Nova20
CRB1.6
Avg goals for
Vila Nova1.4
CRB1.6
Avg goals against
Vila Nova1.2
CRB4
Clean sheets
Vila Nova4
Market aligned with main pickCRB to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 53% · edge +7.7 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
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CRB Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
CRB's season stats show a strong attacking profile with 1.2 goals per game and a willingness to take shots, balanced by a higher goals conceded rate (1.6). Vila Nova's defense is tighter, conceding 1.4 per game, but their attack is less prolific, supporting CRB's home win chances.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
3Vila Nova342010463
8CRB2920857-1
Despite Vila Nova's higher 3rd place ranking, CRB's 12th position belies recent form improvements. The standings suggest Vila Nova faces pressure to maintain promotion push, while CRB can play with less pressure but with home advantage, making the match tactically intriguing.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%CRB Over 2.5
60%Vila Nova Over 2.5
1.6H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.6, indicating relatively low-scoring encounters. However, recent form and attacking stats suggest this match could see more goals, supported by both teams' 60% over 2.5 goals rate this season.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

CRB v Vila Nova prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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