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Novorizontino crestNovorizontino

Serie B | Sun 16 Aug, 22:30

CRB v Novorizontino Stats

Data last updated: Sat 15 Aug 2026, 07:49 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

CRB hosts Novorizontino in a Serie B clash where recent form and tactical solidity set the stage for a competitive encounter. CRB arrives with strong momentum, having collected 13 points recently and demonstrating a sturdy defense conceding just 0.6 goals per game. Novorizontino, with only 3 points in the same period, faces challenges in both attack and defense, conceding 1.2 goals on average. The match promises tactical discipline from CRB, aiming to capitalize on home advantage and maintain their positive run, while Novorizontino seeks to break their poor form and stabilize results.

BT4Y best bet

CRB to Win

  • CRB has a 74% to win, with strong recent form and defensive solidity.
  • Novorizontino struggles with only 3 recent points and a higher goals-against rate.
  • CRB averages 18.6 shots per game, showing offensive pressure compared to Novorizontino's 13.8.
  • The head-to-head average goals is moderate at 2.44, suggesting controlled scoring opportunities.
  • Player data highlights CRB's Mikael as a key goal threat with 13 goals this season.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors CRB to win based on their superior recent form, stronger defensive record, and higher shot volume creating more scoring chances. CRB's 74% win probability reflects in their ability to control the match tempo and limit Novorizontino's attacking threats. The home side's efficient defense and consistent goal scoring underpin this selection. No price warning is needed as the offer positive value relative to the . The data quality is solid, supporting a reliable prediction.

Recent FormCRB 13 points vs Novorizontino 3 points
Strong positive
Defensive StrengthCRB concedes 0.6 goals per game
Strong positive
Offensive PressureCRB averages 18.6 shots per game
Positive
Model Win Probability74% for CRB
Strong positive
Price Value Edge32.3% positive edge at 2.4 odds
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

CRB's recent form and defensive resilience make them the clear favorite to secure victory. Their ability to generate more shots and limit opposition chances aligns well with the model's strong . Novorizontino's struggles in recent matches further tilt the balance towards a home win in this Serie B fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“CRB's blend of defensive discipline and attacking efficiency positions them well to capitalize on Novorizontino's recent struggles. Their home advantage and superior form create a compelling case for a confident win.”

Key Data Signals

CRB to Win evidence

CRB has a 74% to win, with strong recent form and defensive solidity.

Novorizontino struggles with only 3 recent points and a higher goals-against rate.

CRB averages 18.6 shots per game, showing offensive pressure compared to Novorizontino's 13.8.

The head-to-head average goals is moderate at 2.44, suggesting controlled scoring opportunities.

What To Watch In The Data

CRB to Win notes

  • The last nine head-to-head matches average 2.44 goals, indicating moderately paced games with neither side dominating scoring.
  • This trend suggests a match where tactical control and defensive organization will be key factors influencing the goal count and overall result.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

CRB3.8
Avg corners for
Novorizontino6.4
CRB9.8
Avg total corners
Novorizontino14
CRB1.8
Avg yellow cards
Novorizontino1.6
CRB18.6
Avg shots
Novorizontino13.8
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 69% vs implied 64% · edge +5.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Over 5.5 CardsBet365 guide price
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
CRB averages fewer corners (3.8) than Novorizontino (6.4), but compensates with higher shot volume and shots on target, reflecting more direct attacking play. Card averages are similar, indicating a balanced discipline profile likely to maintain match flow without excessive interruptions.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

CRB1.6
Avg goals scored
Novorizontino1
CRB0.6
Avg goals conceded
Novorizontino1.2
CRB40%
BTTS rate
Novorizontino40%
CRB40%
Over 2.5 goals
Novorizontino40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 55% · edge +5.4 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 49%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 31%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 44%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Both teams have a 40% rate for BTTS and Over 2.5 goals, indicating a tendency towards controlled scoring rather than open high-scoring games. CRB's strong defense and Novorizontino's recent scoring difficulties suggest a likely low to moderate goal count with possible BTTS No outcome.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickCRB to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
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CRB Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 49%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
The current of 2.4 for CRB to win offer clear value given the model's 74% win probability. This significant positive suggests the market underestimates CRB's chances, making the bet attractive without requiring caution for price sensitivity.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

CRB

WWWWD
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 3D 2L
11 Aug 2026A Avai1-0
27 Jul 2026H Vila Nova2-0
22 Jul 2026A Ceara1-0
17 Jul 2026H Nautico Recife2-1
12 Jul 2026H Goias2-2

Novorizontino

LWLLL
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 1D 4L
09 Aug 2026H Juventude0-1
26 Jul 2026A Londrina4-1
21 Jul 2026H Criciuma0-1
18 Jul 2026A Fortaleza EC0-1
12 Jul 2026A Operario-PR1-2
Market aligned with main pickCRB to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
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Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
CRB Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
CRB's recent accumulation of 13 points and a strong defensive record contrasts sharply with Novorizontino's 3 points and higher goals conceded. This form disparity highlights CRB's momentum and tactical effectiveness, reinforcing their status as favorites to win.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4CRB wins
1Draws
4Novorizontino wins
05 Apr 2026Novorizontino v CRB1-1
22 Nov 2025Novorizontino v CRB3-0
27 Jul 2025CRB v Novorizontino4-0
11 Aug 2024CRB v Novorizontino0-1
19 Apr 2024Novorizontino v CRB2-1
26 Aug 2023CRB v Novorizontino1-0
Market aligned with main pickCRB to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 49%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
The nine previous meetings show a balanced goal average of 2.44, reflecting competitive encounters without control by either side. This historical data supports a controlled match environment where CRB's current form and home advantage become decisive factors.
Season team stats

Serie B

CRB21
Played
Novorizontino21
CRB1.5
Avg goals for
Novorizontino1.5
CRB1.5
Avg goals against
Novorizontino1
CRB5
Clean sheets
Novorizontino7
Market aligned with main pickCRB to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
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CRB Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over the season, CRB's attack averages 1.6 goals per game with a solid defense conceding 0.6 goals, supporting a winning profile. Novorizontino's lower scoring rate and higher goals conceded underline their vulnerabilities, especially away from home, favoring CRB's chances.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
7Novorizontino332196612
8CRB32219570
Both teams are closely ranked (CRB 8th, Novorizontino 7th) with similar points totals, but CRB's recent form surge and home advantage provide them with a competitive edge in this fixture despite the narrow table gap.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%CRB Over 2.5
40%Novorizontino Over 2.5
2.44H2H avg goals
The last nine head-to-head matches average 2.44 goals, indicating moderately paced games with neither side dominating scoring. This trend suggests a match where tactical control and defensive organization will be key factors influencing the goal count and overall result.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.