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Crawley Town crestCrawley Town
v
Chesterfield crestChesterfield

League Two | Sat 10 Oct, 15:00

Crawley Town v Chesterfield Stats

Data last updated: Sun 11 Oct 2026, 17:48 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Chesterfield arrive in strong form for this League Two clash against Crawley Town, sitting comfortably in 8th place with 14 points, compared to Crawley's 24th position and 4 points. Chesterfield's attacking potency is evident, averaging 2.4 goals per game and creating significantly more shots and shots on target. Crawley Town, struggling defensively with 2.2 goals conceded per match, face a stern test against a confident Chesterfield side that has demonstrated consistent scoring ability and momentum in recent fixtures.

BT4Y best bet

Chesterfield to Win

  • Chesterfield ranks 8th with 14 points; Crawley Town is 24th with 4 points.
  • Chesterfield averages 2.4 goals per game; Crawley Town averages 0.8 goals.
  • Chesterfield's shots per game (21.2) and shots on target (8.2) significantly exceed Crawley Town's (15.4 shots, 3.6 on target).
  • Chesterfield has an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, indicating high-scoring matches.
  • Crawley Town concedes 2.2 goals per game, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Chesterfield to win with a 70% chance, reflecting their superior recent form, offensive output, and league standing. Chesterfield's ability to generate more shots and maintain a higher goal-scoring rate underpins this . Crawley Town's defensive struggles and low points tally further support this prediction. The at 1.65 offer positive value given the model's implied chance of 60.6%, making Chesterfield a compelling selection without price sensitivity concerns.

Recent FormChesterfield has 10 points recently vs Crawley's 1 point
Strong positive
Goal ScoringChesterfield averages 2.4 goals per game vs Crawley's 0.8
Strong positive
Shots & Shots on TargetChesterfield averages 21.2 shots and 8.2 SOT vs Crawley's 15.4 and 3.6
Strong positive
League PositionChesterfield 8th vs Crawley Town 24th
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Chesterfield's superior attacking numbers and recent form make them the clear choice to win this fixture. Their ability to create and convert chances contrasts with Crawley Town's defensive frailties and low scoring, suggesting Chesterfield will control the match and secure victory.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Chesterfield's consistent offensive pressure and higher league standing position them well to capitalize on Crawley Town's defensive weaknesses, making a win the most probable outcome.”

Key Data Signals

Chesterfield to Win evidence

Chesterfield ranks 8th with 14 points; Crawley Town is 24th with 4 points.

Chesterfield averages 2.4 goals per game; Crawley Town averages 0.8 goals.

Chesterfield's shots per game (21.2) and shots on target (8.2) significantly exceed Crawley Town's (15.4 shots, 3.6 on target).

Chesterfield has an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, indicating high-scoring matches.

What To Watch In The Data

Chesterfield to Win notes

  • In the last six head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game is 2.67, supporting a moderately open game.
  • Chesterfield's high Over 2.5 Goals rate (80%) in recent matches suggests this fixture is likely to feature multiple goals, driven by their attacking style and Crawley Town's defensive weaknesses.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Crawley Town0.8
Avg goals scored
Chesterfield2.4
Crawley Town2.2
Avg goals conceded
Chesterfield1.6
Crawley Town60%
BTTS rate
Chesterfield80%
Crawley Town40%
Over 2.5 goals
Chesterfield80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 64% · edge +12.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 74%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 56%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 38%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Chesterfield's matches have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate and 80% BTTS rate, indicating open games with scoring from both sides. Crawley Town's 60% BTTS rate and 40% Over 2.5 rate suggest less frequent high-scoring games, but the attacking strength of Chesterfield likely pushes this fixture towards more goals and both teams scoring.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

League Two fixtures and predictionscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickChesterfield to WinBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 63% · edge +7.5 pts
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Chesterfield Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 56%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
The 70% for Chesterfield to Win sits against roughly 62.5% implied by the current price (+7.5 pts). Chesterfield have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 1 for Crawley Town.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Crawley Town

LLLDL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 5L
19 Sep 2026A Grimsby0-2
12 Sep 2026H Cheltenham1-3
05 Sep 2026A Accrington ST2-3
01 Sep 2026A Northampton1-1
29 Aug 2026H Bristol Rovers0-2

Chesterfield

WLWWD
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 3L
03 Oct 2026H Tranmere4-2
26 Sep 2026A Cheltenham1-2
19 Sep 2026H York2-0
12 Sep 2026A Oldham2-1
05 Sep 2026H Barnet3-3
Market aligned with main pickChesterfield to WinBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 63% · edge +7.5 pts
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Load more odds for this section
Chesterfield Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 84%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Chesterfield's recent form is strong, accumulating 10 points with an average of 2.4 goals per game, demonstrating effective attacking play and resilience. Crawley Town's single point and lower scoring rate reflect struggles in both creating and converting chances, indicating Chesterfield's momentum advantage heading into this match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Crawley Town Over 2.5
80%Chesterfield Over 2.5
2.67H2H avg goals
In the last six head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game is 2.67, supporting a moderately open game. Chesterfield's high Over 2.5 Goals rate (80%) in recent matches suggests this fixture is likely to feature multiple goals, driven by their attacking style and Crawley Town's defensive weaknesses.

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