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Crawley Town crestCrawley Town
v
Bromley crestBromley

EFL Trophy | Tue 06 Oct, 19:45

Crawley Town v Bromley Stats

Data last updated: Mon 05 Oct 2026, 09:23 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Crawley Town and Bromley meet in the EFL Trophy with both sides showing contrasting recent form and tactical approaches. Crawley Town have struggled defensively, conceding four goals in their last outings, while Bromley have been more disciplined at the back, allowing just one goal. The match is poised to be a tactical battle, with Crawley Town pushing forward but Bromley maintaining a compact shape. Both teams have yet to find consistent scoring form, setting the stage for a cautious encounter under the floodlights on Tuesday evening.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Crawley Town have conceded 4 goals recently, Bromley only 1, indicating defensive contrasts.
  • Crawley Town's matches have all gone over 2.5 goals, Bromley’s none, suggesting differing game tempos.
  • Bromley averages 22 shots and 9 on target per game, Crawley Town 13 shots and 5 on target, showing Bromley’s attacking edge.
  • Both teams show contrasting BTTS rates: Crawley Town 100%, Bromley 0%, highlighting differing offensive efficiency.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The Under 2.5 Goals pick is supported by the model's 45.6% chance, indicating a moderate likelihood of a low-scoring match. Crawley Town's defensive frailties are balanced by Bromley's more conservative scoring record, suggesting limited goal volume. The recent form data shows Crawley Town's games have been high scoring, but Bromley's matches have been tight, creating a balance that favors fewer goals overall. The pricing at 2.5 offers a small positive edge without requiring caution, making this a sensible standard stake selection.

Model Chance45.6% model chance vs 40% implied (+5.6 pts)
Positive
Implied Market Chance45.6% model chance vs 40% implied (+5.6 pts)
Positive
Value Edge45.6% model chance vs 40% implied (+5.6 pts)
Positive
Recent Form Goal TrendsMixed high and low scoring
Neutral
Data QualityGood data coverage for both teams
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a cautious contest with limited goal-scoring opportunities as Bromley’s disciplined defense counters Crawley Town’s attacking intent. The data shows a split in recent scoring patterns, but the tactical setup and defensive solidity suggest Under 2.5 Goals is the most plausible outcome for this EFL Trophy clash.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match tactical and defensive balance

“This fixture’s contrasting team profiles and recent defensive records point to a tight game where goals may be scarce despite Crawley Town’s attacking efforts.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Crawley Town have conceded 4 goals recently, Bromley only 1, indicating defensive contrasts.

Bromley averages 22 shots and 9 on target per game, Crawley Town 13 shots and 5 on target, showing Bromley’s attacking edge.

Both teams show contrasting BTTS rates: Crawley Town 100%, Bromley 0%, highlighting differing offensive efficiency.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • The last three head-to-head meetings average 3.67 goals per game, suggesting a historically open encounter.
  • However, recent form and tactical setups indicate this match may be more restrained.
  • The Over 2.5 Goals trend panel highlights a potential for goals but also the influence of defensive discipline, making goal volume uncertain and supporting a watchful approach.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Crawley Town1
Avg goals scored
Bromley0
Crawley Town4
Avg goals conceded
Bromley1
Crawley Town100%
BTTS rate
Bromley0%
Crawley Town100%
Over 2.5 goals
Bromley0%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 46% vs implied 40% · edge +5.6 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 76%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 40%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Goal trends reveal Crawley Town’s matches have consistently gone over 2.5 goals, while Bromley’s games have remained under, creating a balanced outlook. BTTS rates are polarized, with Crawley Town at 100% and Bromley at 0%, implying that Bromley’s defensive discipline could limit scoring chances and suppress total goals in this fixture.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 75% vs implied 77% · edge -1.9 pts
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Crawley Town Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Bromley Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Bromley to WinBet365 guide price · model 45%
2
Check odds @ 2
Crawley Town to WinBetMGM guide price · model 31%
3
Check odds @ 3
The 45.6% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 40% implied by the current price (+5.6 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Crawley Town and 0% for Bromley, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Crawley Town

L
Last 50W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 1L
22 Sep 2026A Milton Keynes Dons1-4

Bromley

L
Last 50W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 1L
22 Sep 2026H Brentford U210-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 69% vs implied 77% · edge -7.5 pts
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
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Crawley Town Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Bromley Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Bromley to WinBet365 guide price · model 45%
2
Check odds @ 2
Crawley Town to WinBetMGM guide price · model 31%
3
Check odds @ 3
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 24%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Recent form data shows Crawley Town’s matches have all exceeded 2.5 goals, reflecting defensive vulnerabilities and open play. Bromley’s recent games have been low scoring, with strong defensive organization. This contrast suggests the match may lean towards fewer goals as Bromley’s defense could contain Crawley Town’s attack effectively.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Crawley Town Over 2.5
0%Bromley Over 2.5
3.67H2H avg goals
The last three head-to-head meetings average 3.67 goals per game, suggesting a historically open encounter. However, recent form and tactical setups indicate this match may be more restrained. The Over 2.5 Goals trend panel highlights a potential for goals but also the influence of defensive discipline, making goal volume uncertain and supporting a watchful approach.

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