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Cosenza crestCosenza
v
Foggia crestFoggia

Serie C - Girone C | Sun 04 Oct, 13:30

Cosenza v Foggia Stats

Data last updated: Sat 03 Oct 2026, 08:27 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Cosenza and Foggia meet in Serie C - Girone C with both sides struggling for points early in the season. Cosenza sits near the bottom with just 2 points, while Foggia is mid-table with 8 points. Both teams have shown defensive vulnerabilities, but their attacking output remains limited, suggesting a cautious tactical approach. The match is likely to be a tight contest with few clear-cut chances, as both sides aim to avoid defeat and stabilize their campaigns in a competitive group.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Cosenza averages just 0.6 goals per game, indicating limited attacking threat.
  • Foggia concedes fewer goals (1.2 per game) but scores only 0.8 on average, reflecting a low-scoring pattern.
  • Both teams have low BTTS rates: 40% for Cosenza and 20% for Foggia, suggesting many matches end with one or no team scoring.
  • Recent form shows Cosenza has a 40% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, while Foggia's rate is only 20%, supporting a low-scoring game.
  • Head-to-head meetings average 2.43 goals, indicating moderately low scoring in direct encounters.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 65% probability, reflecting the low scoring trends from both teams this season. Cosenza's weak attack and Foggia's cautious approach combine to limit goal opportunities. The modest average goals in their head-to-head history further support a low-scoring outcome. Data quality is solid with no significant limitations, reinforcing in this prediction. The current of 1.67 offer a small positive , making this a sensible selection for those expecting a tight, defensive match.

Model Probability65% model chance vs 59.9% implied (+5.1 pts)
Strong positive
Cosenza Goals For0.6 goals per game
Strong positive
Foggia Goals For0.8 goals per game
Positive
BTTS Rates40% for Cosenza, 20% for Foggia
Positive
Head-to-Head Average Goals2.43 goals per match
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

This Under 2.5 Goals pick aligns with the tactical caution both teams have shown this season. Cosenza's limited offensive output combined with Foggia's defensive solidity suggests a match where goals will be scarce. The data supports a tight contest with few scoring opportunities, making the low-goal selection a logical choice.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Under 2.5 Goals

“Given the defensive struggles and low scoring rates, this fixture is primed for a cautious battle with limited goal chances. The Under 2.5 Goals market fits the tactical and statistical profile perfectly.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Cosenza averages just 0.6 goals per game, indicating limited attacking threat.

Foggia concedes fewer goals (1.2 per game) but scores only 0.8 on average, reflecting a low-scoring pattern.

Both teams have low BTTS rates: 40% for Cosenza and 20% for Foggia, suggesting many matches end with one or no team scoring.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the last seven head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.43, indicating moderately low scoring encounters.
  • This trend, combined with recent form, suggests a match tempo favoring defensive caution and fewer goals.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Cosenza0.6
Avg goals scored
Foggia0.8
Cosenza2.2
Avg goals conceded
Foggia1.2
Cosenza40%
BTTS rate
Foggia20%
Cosenza40%
Over 2.5 goals
Foggia20%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 60% · edge +5.1 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 57%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 39%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 22%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Both teams have low scoring averages and BTTS rates, with Cosenza scoring 0.6 and Foggia 0.8 goals per game, and BTTS occurrences at 40% and 20% respectively. This suggests matches often end with one or no team scoring, reinforcing the likelihood of a low-scoring game.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Cosenza

LDLDL
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 2D 5L
26 Sep 2026A Bari0-1
19 Sep 2026H Scafatese1-1
15 Sep 2026A Giugliano2-5
12 Sep 2026H Cavese0-0
07 Sep 2026A Catania0-4

Foggia

WLDLL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 3L
27 Sep 2026H Sorrento2-0
20 Sep 2026A Inter U232-3
15 Sep 2026H Savoia0-0
12 Sep 2026A SS Monopoli0-1
06 Sep 2026H Audace Cerignola0-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 81% vs implied 71% · edge +9.9 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
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Foggia to WinBet365 guide price · model 56%
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
Foggia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Cosenza Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
DrawBet365 guide price · model 25%
3
Check odds @ 3
Cosenza to WinBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Recent form shows Cosenza has earned only 2 points with a 40% over 2.5 goals rate, while Foggia has 4 points and a 20% over 2.5 rate. This disparity highlights Cosenza's slightly more open games but overall supports a low-scoring trend for this fixture.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionFoggia to WinBet365 guide price · Model 56% vs implied 41% · edge +15 pts
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
Load more odds for this section
Foggia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Cosenza Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 39%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
DrawBet365 guide price · model 25%
3
Check odds @ 3
Cosenza to WinBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
The 65% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 59.9% implied by the current price (+5.1 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Cosenza and 20% for Foggia, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Cosenza Over 2.5
20%Foggia Over 2.5
2.43H2H avg goals
In the last seven head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.43, indicating moderately low scoring encounters. This trend, combined with recent form, suggests a match tempo favoring defensive caution and fewer goals.

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