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Coritiba crestCoritiba
v
Palmeiras crestPalmeiras

Serie A | Wed 22 Jul, 23:30

Coritiba v Palmeiras Stats

Data last updated: Fri 24 Jul 2026, 02:11 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie A clash features Coritiba hosting league leaders Palmeiras in a fixture where tactical intensity and attacking intent are expected. Coritiba, ranked seventh, have shown a willingness to press and create chances at home, while Palmeiras, top of the table, rely on quick transitions and wide play to unsettle opponents. Both teams have recent form indicating openness in matches, with Coritiba averaging 3.4 corners and Palmeiras 11.5 per game, suggesting a high-volume corner count. The match timing late on Wednesday adds to the intrigue as both sides seek to maintain momentum in a competitive league phase.

BT4Y match pick · price watch

Over 8.5 Corners

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 77%, above the 72% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • Coritiba average 3.4 corners per game, Palmeiras 11.5, combining for a high corner volume.
  • Palmeiras lead the league and play with wide attacking patterns generating many set-piece opportunities.
  • Coritiba’s home matches see sustained pressure and repeated wide deliveries, boosting corner chances.
  • Recent form shows both teams engage in open play, increasing the likelihood of multiple corners.
Price warning

Over 8.5 Corners is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 77% while the model sits nearer 72% (-5.1 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Both Teams to Score shows a +15 pts edge at 2.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The model assigns a 75% chance for Over 8.5 Corners, driven by Palmeiras’ high average of 11.5 corners per match and Coritiba’s solid 3.4 corners at home. Palmeiras’ attacking style, featuring wide play and frequent shots, combined with Coritiba’s pressing and fouling tendencies, supports a high corner count. The data quality is strong for both teams, reinforcing in this selection. The match context of two offensively active teams further underpins the likelihood of surpassing 8.5 corners.

Price / value72% model chance vs 77% implied (-5.1 pts)
Negative
Palmeiras average corners11.5 per game
Strong positive
Coritiba average corners3.4 per game
Positive
Model chance75%
Strong positive
Data qualityComplete for both teams
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a corner-rich encounter as Palmeiras’ control and wide attacking play combine with Coritiba’s home pressure to generate numerous set-piece situations. The teams’ styles and recent corner averages suggest the match will see frequent wide attacks and defensive clearances leading to corners, making Over 8.5 Corners a compelling tactical and statistical choice.

Main risk

That balance tells a clear story: the Coxa have generally scored enough to remain competitive, but they have not consistently controlled matches without the ball.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Corner market analysis

“Palmeiras’ wide attacking emphasis and Coritiba’s home pressing create a fertile environment for corners, with both teams’ recent data reinforcing the likelihood of a high corner count.”

Key Data Signals

Over 8.5 Corners evidence

Coritiba average 3.4 corners per game, Palmeiras 11.5, combining for a high corner volume.

Palmeiras lead the league and play with wide attacking patterns generating many set-piece opportunities.

Coritiba’s home matches see sustained pressure and repeated wide deliveries, boosting corner chances.

Recent form shows both teams engage in open play, increasing the likelihood of multiple corners.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 8.5 Corners notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals stand at 2.6, indicating moderately open matches.
  • While this panel focuses on goals, the tempo and attacking intent in these fixtures have historically produced sustained pressure and transitions, which often lead to multiple corners.
  • The trend suggests a match rhythm conducive to surpassing corner thresholds.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Coritiba1.8
Avg goals scored
Palmeiras1.4
Coritiba2.2
Avg goals conceded
Palmeiras0.6
Coritiba60%
BTTS rate
Palmeiras60%
Coritiba100%
Over 2.5 goals
Palmeiras20%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 54%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 72%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 36%
4
Check odds @ 4
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 50%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 31%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
While goals and BTTS rates differ—Coritiba’s matches often exceed 2.5 goals, Palmeiras less so—the attacking intent from both sides supports sustained pressure and attacking phases, which typically generate corners even if goal totals vary. Both teams’ 60% BTTS rates indicate openness that can lead to more set-piece chances.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · Model 72% vs implied 77% · edge -5.1 pts
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 54%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Coritiba Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.85
Check odds @ 2.85
Coritiba to WinBetUK guide price · model 30%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Palmeiras to WinBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Palmeiras Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
The Over 8.5 Corners market is priced with a strong of 75%, reflecting Palmeiras’ league-leading corner averages and Coritiba’s respectable home corner numbers. The price appears fair with no warning flags, making this a standard stake opportunity based on solid data and tactical context.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Coritiba3.4
Avg corners for
Palmeiras7.8
Coritiba8.4
Avg total corners
Palmeiras12.6
Coritiba0.8
Avg yellow cards
Palmeiras2.4
Coritiba9
Avg shots
Palmeiras16.2
Market aligned with main pickOver 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · Model 72% vs implied 77% · edge -5.1 pts
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Load more odds for this section
Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Over 4.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Palmeiras’ high shot volume (17 per game) and Coritiba’s moderate shot count (9 per game) suggest sustained attacking pressure, especially from Palmeiras’ wide players. Coritiba’s lower yellow card average (0.8) versus Palmeiras’ higher (2) indicates Palmeiras may press aggressively, forcing defensive clearances and corners. The combination of fouls and shot pressure supports a high corner count.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Coritiba

LWWDL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 4D 3L
30 May 2026A Flamengo0-3
26 May 2026H Bahia3-2
17 May 2026A Santos3-0
09 May 2026H Internacional2-2
02 May 2026A Vitoria1-4

Palmeiras

WWDDD
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 4D 0L
31 May 2026H Chapecoense-sc1-0
24 May 2026A Flamengo3-0
17 May 2026H Cruzeiro1-1
10 May 2026A Remo1-1
02 May 2026H Santos1-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetUK guide price · Model 80% vs implied 83% · edge -3 pts
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Load more odds for this section
Coritiba Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.85
Check odds @ 2.85
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Coritiba to WinBetUK guide price · model 30%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Palmeiras to WinBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Palmeiras Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
DrawBet365 guide price · model 26%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Recent form data shows Coritiba averaging 3.4 corners and Palmeiras 11.5 per game, with Coritiba’s matches always going over 2.5 goals and Palmeiras at 20%. Both teams’ attacking momentum and open play style in recent matches indicate a sustained flow of wide attacks and defensive clearances, reinforcing the likelihood of surpassing 8.5 corners.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Coritiba wins
1Draws
6Palmeiras wins
22 Oct 2023Coritiba v Palmeiras0-2
04 Jun 2023Palmeiras v Coritiba3-1
06 Oct 2022Palmeiras v Coritiba4-0
12 Jun 2022Coritiba v Palmeiras0-2
17 Feb 2021Coritiba v Palmeiras1-0
14 Oct 2020Palmeiras v Coritiba1-3
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 54%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Coritiba to WinBetUK guide price · model 30%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Palmeiras to WinBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
DrawBet365 guide price · model 26%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
The head-to-head sample of ten matches shows an average of 2.6 goals per game, indicating moderately open contests. While goal data is moderate, the matches have featured dynamic wide play and defensive actions that typically generate corners. The H2H record offers background support for a high corner count, though current form and tactical patterns carry more weight.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Serie A

Coritiba19
Played
Palmeiras19
Coritiba1.3
Avg goals for
Palmeiras1.7
Coritiba1.4
Avg goals against
Palmeiras0.7
Coritiba5
Clean sheets
Palmeiras7
Best odds for this sectionCoritiba Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 45% vs implied 35% · edge +9.9 pts
2.85
Check odds @ 2.85
Load more odds for this section
Coritiba to WinBetUK guide price · model 30%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Palmeiras to WinBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Palmeiras Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Season-long statistics reveal Palmeiras as a corner-heavy team, averaging 11.5 corners per match, reflecting their wide and aggressive attacking style. Coritiba’s 3.4 corners per game at home add to the total volume. These season trends align with the tactical expectation of frequent wide play and defensive pressure leading to corners.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1Palmeiras4419135119
8Coritiba2619757-2
Palmeiras sit top of Serie A, reflecting their control and attacking prowess, which translates into territorial advantage and set-piece opportunities. Coritiba’s mid-table position and home form suggest a competitive but open match, where Palmeiras’ pressure is likely to generate numerous corners. The standings context supports a scenario of Palmeiras pushing for control and corners.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Coritiba Over 2.5
20%Palmeiras Over 2.5
2.6H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals stand at 2.6, indicating moderately open matches. While this panel focuses on goals, the tempo and attacking intent in these fixtures have historically produced sustained pressure and transitions, which often lead to multiple corners. The trend suggests a match rhythm conducive to surpassing corner thresholds.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Coritiba v Palmeiras prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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