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Como crestComo
v
Parma crestParma

Serie A | Sun 17 May, 11:00

Como v Parma Stats

Data last updated: Sun 07 Jun 2026, 08:19 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Como face Parma in Serie A on Sun 17 May, 11:00. Como have kept three consecutive league clean sheets through a pragmatic tactical shift under Cesc Fàbregas. Following their defensive stabilization, Como's recent wins over Genoa and Verona were built on tight structural margins.

BT4Y best bet

Work? This combined option requires Como to win the fixture and the aggregate score of both teams to remain at two goals or fewer

  • At 6/1, Under 2.5 Goals implies roughly 14%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 65%.
  • With Parma's last three away matches also finishing under 2.5 goals, a controlled, low-scoring home win offers the strongest analytical value here.
  • Como are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.4 goals per match, with Parma at 1.
  • BTTS rates of 40% for Como and 40% for Parma show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 65% for Under that scoring level sits against roughly 14% implied by the current price. Como are carrying more of the scoring load at that scoring level per match, with Parma at 1. With Parma's last three away matches also finishing under 2.5 goals, a controlled, low-scoring home win offers the strongest analytical value here.

Model chance vs price65% model chance against roughly 14% implied
Strong positive
Como are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.4.Visible data support
Positive
BTTS rates of 40% for Como and 40% for Parma.Visible data support
Positive
With Parma's last three away matches also finishing under.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Under that scoring level is the preferred angle because with Parma's last three away matches also finishing under 2.5 goals, a controlled, low-scoring home win offers the strongest analytical value here. Como are carrying more of the scoring load at that scoring level per match, with Parma at 1. Anastasios Douvikas has developed a habit every ambitious team needs at this stage of a season: scoring ugly but vital goals.

Main risk

Anastasios Douvikas has developed a habit every ambitious team needs at this stage of a season: scoring ugly but vital goals.

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

With Parma's last three away matches also finishing under 2.5 goals, a controlled, low-scoring home win offers the.

Como are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.4 goals per match, with Parma at 1.

BTTS rates of 40% for Como and 40% for Parma show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Como4.4
Avg corners for
Parma4.2
Como7.8
Avg total corners
Parma11.2
Como2.2
Avg yellow cards
Parma1.2
Como14.2
Avg shots
Parma8.6
Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 68% vs implied 56% · edge +12.7 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 60%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 8.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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Useful next reads

Serie A hubrelated match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Como1.4
Avg goals scored
Parma1
Como1.2
Avg goals conceded
Parma1.2
Como40%
BTTS rate
Parma40%
Como40%
Over 2.5 goals
Parma20%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 46% · edge +19.3 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 47%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 39%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionParma Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 48% vs implied 17% · edge +31.4 pts
6
Check odds @ 6
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Parma to WinBetUK guide price · model 38%
12
Check odds @ 12
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 60%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 39%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Parma Draw No Bet is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Como

WDWLL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 2D 2L
10 May 2026A Hellas Verona1-0
02 May 2026H Napoli0-0
26 Apr 2026A Genoa2-0
17 Apr 2026A Sassuolo1-2
12 Apr 2026H Inter3-4

Parma

LLWWD
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 4D 4L
10 May 2026H AS Roma2-3
03 May 2026A Inter0-2
25 Apr 2026H Pisa1-0
18 Apr 2026A Udinese1-0
12 Apr 2026H Napoli1-1
Best odds for this sectionParma Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 48% vs implied 17% · edge +31.4 pts
6
Check odds @ 6
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 67%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Parma to WinBetUK guide price · model 38%
12
Check odds @ 12
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.04
Check odds @ 1.04
Como Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Como to WinBet365 guide price · model 46%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Como wins
4Draws
3Parma wins
25 Oct 2025Parma v Como0-0
03 May 2025Parma v Como0-1
19 Oct 2024Como v Parma1-1
24 Feb 2024Como v Parma1-1
20 Oct 2023Parma v Como2-1
18 Mar 2023como v Parma2-0
Best odds for this sectionParma to WinBetUK guide price · Model 38% vs implied 8% · edge +29.7 pts
12
Check odds @ 12
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 39%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Como to WinBet365 guide price · model 46%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
The head-to-head sample gives context for Parma to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Season team stats

Serie A

Como38
Played
Parma38
Como1.7
Avg goals for
Parma0.7
Como0.8
Avg goals against
Parma1.2
Como19
Clean sheets
Parma13
Best odds for this sectionParma Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 48% vs implied 17% · edge +31.4 pts
6
Check odds @ 6
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Parma to WinBetUK guide price · model 38%
12
Check odds @ 12
Como Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Como to WinBet365 guide price · model 46%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
Season data supports Parma Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
4Como71382011736
13Parma4538111215-18
Como sit in position 4, while Parma sit in position 13, so table pressure belongs in the Under 2.5 Goals assessment.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Como Over 2.5
20%Parma Over 2.5
2.22H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Como sit at 40% and Parma sit at 20% with the H2H average at 2.22 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Como v Parma prediction

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Betting context

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