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Cittadella crestCittadella
v
Albinoleffe crestAlbinoleffe

Serie C - Girone A | Sat 03 Oct, 13:30

Cittadella v Albinoleffe Stats

Data last updated: Fri 02 Oct 2026, 10:42 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Cittadella leads Serie C - Girone A and hosts Albinoleffe, who sit mid-table with less consistent form. Cittadella's strong defensive record contrasts with Albinoleffe's more open style, suggesting a tactical battle where both sides have chances to score. Recent matches show Cittadella's ability to score but also concede occasionally, while Albinoleffe tends to participate in matches with goals at both ends. This clash of styles and stakes sets up an intriguing contest with potential for goals from both teams.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Cittadella concedes only 0.4 goals per game, showing defensive solidity but still concedes occasionally.
  • Albinoleffe scores 1.4 goals per game and concedes 1.4, indicating open matches.
  • Both teams have a combined BTTS rate around 50%, with Albinoleffe at 60%.
  • Recent head-to-head matches average 2.33 goals, supporting goal involvement from both sides.
  • Cittadella's over 2.5 goals rate is 60%, suggesting matches often have multiple goals.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies a 63.3% chance for both teams to score, supported by Cittadella's occasional concessions and Albinoleffe's attacking output. The of 10.9% indicates the offer good value compared to the implied chance. The recent form data and head-to-head averages reinforce the likelihood of goals at both ends, making BTTS a strong selection for this fixture. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Model Chance63.3% model chance vs 52.4% implied (+10.9 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge63.3% model chance vs 52.4% implied (+10.9 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Form BTTS RatesCittadella 40%, Albinoleffe 60%
Positive
Head-to-Head Goals Average2.33 goals per match
Positive
Defensive and Offensive BalanceCittadella concedes 0.4, Albinoleffe scores 1.4 per game
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both teams have shown tendencies to find the net, with Albinoleffe's attacking approach complementing Cittadella's occasional defensive lapses. The data supports a match where both sides can score, making BTTS a tactically and statistically sound choice for this Serie C fixture.

Main risk

Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · BTTS rationale

“This fixture features a home side with a solid defense but a history of conceding, facing an away team that actively seeks goals. The blend of defensive resilience and attacking intent suggests a strong likelihood of goals at both ends.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Cittadella concedes only 0.4 goals per game, showing defensive solidity but still concedes occasionally.

Albinoleffe scores 1.4 goals per game and concedes 1.4, indicating open matches.

Both teams have a combined BTTS rate around 50%, with Albinoleffe at 60%.

Recent head-to-head matches average 2.33 goals, supporting goal involvement from both sides.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last five matches, Cittadella has a 60% rate of games with over 2.5 goals, while Albinoleffe's rate is 40%.
  • The head-to-head average of 2.33 goals per game suggests a moderate tempo with opportunities for multiple goals, reinforcing the BTTS and over 2.5 goals trends.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Cittadella2
Avg goals scored
Albinoleffe1.4
Cittadella0.4
Avg goals conceded
Albinoleffe1.4
Cittadella40%
BTTS rate
Albinoleffe60%
Cittadella60%
Over 2.5 goals
Albinoleffe40%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 52% · edge +10.9 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 56%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 30%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 41%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Goal trends show Cittadella concedes sparingly but does allow goals, while Albinoleffe's matches frequently feature goals at both ends. The head-to-head average of 2.33 goals per game and Albinoleffe's 60% BTTS rate highlight a pattern of open matches conducive to both teams scoring.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Cittadella

WWWWW
Last 55W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 107W 0D 0L
26 Sep 2026H Lecco3-0
20 Sep 2026A Ospitaletto1-0
17 Sep 2026H Juventus U232-0
13 Sep 2026A Athletic Carpi2-1
06 Sep 2026H Lumezzane2-1

Albinoleffe

DWLDL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 2L
27 Sep 2026H Alcione1-1
20 Sep 2026A Juventus U235-3
17 Sep 2026H Arzignano Valchiampo1-2
13 Sep 2026A Dolomiti Bellunesi0-0
06 Sep 2026H Athletic Carpi0-1
Best odds for this sectionCittadella to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 65% · edge +9.5 pts
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
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Cittadella Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 78%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.11
Check odds @ 1.11
Albinoleffe Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 42%
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 45%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Albinoleffe to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
DrawBetfred guide price · model 18%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Recent form shows Cittadella with strong defensive performances but occasional goals conceded, while Albinoleffe's form includes scoring in most matches despite defensive vulnerabilities. These trends underpin the likelihood of both teams scoring in this encounter.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 52% · edge +10.9 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Cittadella to WinBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Cittadella Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 78%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Albinoleffe Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 42%
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
Albinoleffe to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
DrawBetfred guide price · model 18%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
The 63.3% for Both Teams to Score sits against roughly 52.4% implied by the current price (+10.9 pts). Cittadella show a 40% BTTS rate and Albinoleffe show a 60% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Cittadella Over 2.5
40%Albinoleffe Over 2.5
2.33H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, Cittadella has a 60% rate of games with over 2.5 goals, while Albinoleffe's rate is 40%. The head-to-head average of 2.33 goals per game suggests a moderate tempo with opportunities for multiple goals, reinforcing the BTTS and over 2.5 goals trends.

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