Football Stats Hub

China crestChina
v
Tajikistan crestTajikistan

Friendlies | Tue 06 Oct, 12:35

China v Tajikistan Stats

Data last updated: Mon 05 Oct 2026, 09:23 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

China faces Tajikistan in a friendly match where both teams show contrasting offensive and defensive tendencies. China has a strong recent record of high-scoring games, with 80% of their last matches exceeding 2.5 goals, while Tajikistan's games have been more balanced but still capable of producing goals. China’s attackers, including Wang Ziming and Zhao Songyuan, are active in creating and taking shots, suggesting an open game. The fixture offers an intriguing tactical battle with China likely pushing forward and Tajikistan aiming to exploit counter-attacks, setting the stage for multiple goal opportunities.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • China has an 80% rate of Over 2.5 Goals in recent matches.
  • Tajikistan’s games have a 50% Over 2.5 Goals rate, showing moderate scoring.
  • China averages 15.2 shots per game with 4.4 on target, indicating offensive pressure.
  • Head-to-head matches have been low scoring, but recent form suggests more goals now.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model estimates a 53.5% chance of Over 2.5 Goals, slightly above the implied market chance of 48.8%, indicating a small positive value. China’s recent matches frequently exceed 2.5 goals, supported by their high shot volume and attacking players like Wang Ziming who averages nearly 2 shots on target per 90 minutes. Tajikistan’s moderate scoring rate and defensive concessions add to the likelihood of a goal-rich game. The data quality is solid, with no limitations, reinforcing in this selection.

China Over 2.5 Rate80% recent matches
Strong positive
Tajikistan Over 2.5 Rate50% recent matches
Positive
China Average Shots15.2 per game
Strong positive
Model Chance vs Market53.5% model chance vs 48.8% implied (+4.7 pts)
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open game with China’s attacking players pushing the tempo and Tajikistan looking to capitalize on transitions. China’s strong offensive form and shot volume suggest a higher likelihood of multiple goals, making Over 2.5 Goals a tactically and statistically sound choice for this friendly encounter.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and tactical openness

“China’s attacking prowess combined with Tajikistan’s moderate defensive vulnerabilities creates a fertile ground for goals. The match dynamics and recent scoring trends strongly favor a lively, goal-filled game.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

China has an 80% rate of Over 2.5 Goals in recent matches.

Tajikistan’s games have a 50% Over 2.5 Goals rate, showing moderate scoring.

China averages 15.2 shots per game with 4.4 on target, indicating offensive pressure.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the last two head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored were low at 0.5 per match, but recent form data over the last five matches shows a significant increase in goal frequency, especially for China.
  • This suggests a shift in playing style or personnel that favors more attacking play and higher tempo, supporting the Over 2.5 Goals trend for this encounter.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

China1
Avg goals scored
Tajikistan1.5
China1.8
Avg goals conceded
Tajikistan1.75
China20%
BTTS rate
Tajikistan75%
China80%
Over 2.5 goals
Tajikistan50%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 54% vs implied 49% · edge +4.7 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 62%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 72%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 36%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 51%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 42%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Recent form data shows China’s matches frequently surpass 2.5 goals, while Tajikistan’s games have a more mixed scoring profile but still contribute to goal opportunities. BTTS rates differ, with China’s low BTTS rate contrasting Tajikistan’s higher rate, implying China may dominate scoring but the opponent can still find the net. This blend supports a game with multiple goals but possibly uneven scoring distribution.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Friendlies fixtures and predictionscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 54% vs implied 49% · edge +4.7 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 62%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Tajikistan Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.55
Check odds @ 3.55
Tajikistan to WinBet365 guide price · model 32%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
China to WinBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
China Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 61%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
The 53.5% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 48.8% implied by the current price (+4.7 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for China and 50% for Tajikistan, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

China

LLWDW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 2L
02 Oct 2026H Palestine0-5
27 Sep 2026H New Zealand0-3
24 Sep 2026H Maldives3-0
09 Jun 2026H Thailand0-0
05 Jun 2026A Singapore2-1

Tajikistan

LLDW
Last 51W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 2L
28 Sep 2026H Palestine2-4
23 Sep 2026A Azerbaijan0-1
09 Jun 2026H India1-1
05 Jun 2026H India3-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 50% · edge +9.8 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Tajikistan Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.55
Check odds @ 3.55
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 79%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Tajikistan to WinBet365 guide price · model 32%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
China to WinBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
China Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 61%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
China’s recent form strongly favors Over 2.5 Goals with an 80% rate, reflecting a pattern of open, high-scoring matches. Tajikistan’s recent games have a 50% Over 2.5 rate, indicating a more cautious but still capable scoring profile. The contrast suggests China’s offensive momentum will likely drive the match tempo and goal count upward, while Tajikistan may contribute sporadically to the scoring.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%China Over 2.5
50%Tajikistan Over 2.5
0.5H2H avg goals
In the last two head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored were low at 0.5 per match, but recent form data over the last five matches shows a significant increase in goal frequency, especially for China. This suggests a shift in playing style or personnel that favors more attacking play and higher tempo, supporting the Over 2.5 Goals trend for this encounter.

Loading deeper match data…