Football Stats Hub

China crestChina
v
New Zealand crestNew Zealand

Friendlies | Sun 27 Sep, 12:35

China v New Zealand Stats

Data last updated: Sat 26 Sep 2026, 07:59 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

China faces New Zealand in a friendly match where China enters with stronger recent form and attacking output. China averages 1.75 goals per game with a solid defensive record conceding 0.75 goals, while New Zealand struggles offensively and defensively, scoring 0.67 and conceding 2.33 on average. China’s attacking style and higher shot volume suggest they will control the tempo and create more chances. New Zealand’s defensive vulnerabilities and limited offensive threat set the stage for China to assert control in this encounter.

BT4Y best bet

China to Win

  • China has won 8 points recently compared to New Zealand's 1 point.
  • China averages 18.67 shots per game versus New Zealand's 7.5, indicating offensive pressure.
  • China concedes only 0.75 goals per game, showing defensive solidity.
  • New Zealand concedes 2.33 goals per game, highlighting defensive weakness.
  • China’s Over 2.5 goals rate is 75%, suggesting attacking intent and goal opportunities.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 74% chance for China to win, reflecting their superior recent form, attacking efficiency, and defensive stability. China’s high shot volume and goal-scoring rates contrast with New Zealand’s struggles in both attack and defense. The 2.55 offer positive value given the implied chance is only 39.2%. This pick is supported by strong and a clear football read, with no data limitations affecting the assessment.

Recent formChina’s 8 points vs New Zealand’s 1 point
Strong positive
Attacking statsChina averages 18.67 shots and 1.75 goals per game
Strong positive
Defensive statsChina concedes 0.75 goals per game vs New Zealand’s 2.33
Strong positive
Price value54.2% model chance vs 39.2% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

China’s superior recent form and attacking firepower make them the clear favorite to win this friendly. Their ability to create and convert chances, combined with a solid defensive record, contrasts sharply with New Zealand’s struggles at both ends. This tactical and statistical edge supports backing China to secure victory.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“China’s control in shots and goal-scoring opportunities, paired with New Zealand’s defensive frailties, creates a strong foundation for a home win. The attacking roles and recent momentum favor China controlling the match.”

Key Data Signals

China to Win evidence

China has won 8 points recently compared to New Zealand's 1 point.

China averages 18.67 shots per game versus New Zealand's 7.5, indicating offensive pressure.

China concedes only 0.75 goals per game, showing defensive solidity.

New Zealand concedes 2.33 goals per game, highlighting defensive weakness.

What To Watch In The Data

China to Win notes

  • Over the last several matches, China’s 75% Over 2.5 goals rate and New Zealand’s 67% rate suggest a tendency toward open games with multiple goals.
  • The average 1.5 goals in their limited head-to-head meetings supports a moderate scoring tempo, favoring goal opportunities for China.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

China1.75
Avg goals scored
New Zealand0.67
China0.75
Avg goals conceded
New Zealand2.33
China50%
BTTS rate
New Zealand33%
China75%
Over 2.5 goals
New Zealand67%
Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 60% vs implied 48% · edge +12 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 42%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 47%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 44%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
The goal context suggests a controlled scoring environment with China’s 50% BTTS rate and New Zealand’s 33%. China’s strong attack contrasts with New Zealand’s defensive issues, but the lower BTTS rates indicate New Zealand may struggle to score, supporting a no BTTS or low-scoring outcome.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Friendlies fixtures and predictionscorners trends hubplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickChina to WinBet365 guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Load more odds for this section
China Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 60%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
The 54.2% for China to Win sits against roughly 39.2% implied by the current price (+15 pts). China have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 1 for New Zealand.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

China

WDWD
Last 52W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 0L
24 Sep 2026H Maldives3-0
09 Jun 2026H Thailand0-0
05 Jun 2026A Singapore2-1
26 Jan 2026A Uzbekistan2-2

New Zealand

DLL
Last 50W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 2L
24 Sep 2026A Palestine2-2
06 Jun 2026A England0-1
03 Jun 2026A Haiti0-4
Market aligned with main pickChina to WinBet365 guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Load more odds for this section
China Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
China’s recent form is markedly superior, accumulating 8 points with a 75% Over 2.5 goals rate, reflecting attacking and consistency. New Zealand’s 1 point and defensive frailty underline their struggles, reinforcing China’s favored status in this matchup.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

75%China Over 2.5
67%New Zealand Over 2.5
1.5H2H avg goals
Over the last several matches, China’s 75% Over 2.5 goals rate and New Zealand’s 67% rate suggest a tendency toward open games with multiple goals. The average 1.5 goals in their limited head-to-head meetings supports a moderate scoring tempo, favoring goal opportunities for China.

Loading deeper match data…