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China crestChina
v
Maldives crestMaldives

Friendlies | Thu 24 Sep, 12:35

China v Maldives Stats

Data last updated: Wed 23 Sep 2026, 08:05 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

China hosts Maldives in a friendly where China arrives with a stronger recent record, having secured five points from their last three matches compared to Maldives' single point. China tends to play with attacking intent, reflected in their higher goal output and shots volume, while Maldives have struggled defensively, conceding more than one and a half goals per game recently. The tactical setup suggests China will press forward, but Maldives' resilience and counter-attacking threat could yield scoring chances, making this an open contest with potential for goals at both ends.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • China averages 1.33 goals per game with a 67% BTTS rate in recent matches
  • Maldives concede 1.67 goals per game and have a 33% BTTS rate, indicating defensive vulnerability
  • Head-to-head meetings average 4.25 goals, suggesting open games with scoring from both sides
  • China's attacking players like Zhang Yuning and Serginho show strong shot and goal threat metrics
  • China's high average shots (17.5) and corners (10.5) indicate sustained offensive pressure

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Both Teams to Score at 61.2% chance, significantly above the market implied chance of 20%, indicating strong value. China's attacking metrics, including a high shots and goals rate, combined with Maldives' defensive concessions, support the likelihood of goals from both sides. The recent form data shows China scoring regularly while Maldives have struggled to keep clean sheets, reinforcing the BTTS case. The sample size is sufficient to trust these trends, making this a compelling pick with a high level of 88%.

China attacking output1.33 goals/game, 17.5 shots/game
Strong positive
Maldives defensive weakness1.67 goals conceded/game
Positive
Head-to-head goal average4.25 goals per match
Positive
Model confidence88%
Strong positive
Market price vs model chanceMarket implies 20%, model 61.2%
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both Teams to Score is a logical choice given China's offensive pressure and Maldives' defensive vulnerabilities. China's attackers frequently create and convert chances, while Maldives' recent defensive record suggests they are likely to concede. This combination points to goals at both ends, making BTTS a tactically and statistically sound selection for this friendly.

Main risk

Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Player attacking roles and defensive vulnerabilities

“China's attacking players like Zhang Yuning and Serginho consistently generate shots and scoring opportunities, while Maldives' defensive record indicates susceptibility to conceding, making Both Teams to Score a well-supported pick in this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

China averages 1.33 goals per game with a 67% BTTS rate in recent matches

Maldives concede 1.67 goals per game and have a 33% BTTS rate, indicating defensive vulnerability

Head-to-head meetings average 4.25 goals, suggesting open games with scoring from both sides

China's attacking players like Zhang Yuning and Serginho show strong shot and goal threat metrics

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last four head-to-head meetings, the average goals per match is 4.25, indicating a trend toward high-scoring games.
  • This suggests a fast tempo and open play style that favors Over 2.5 Goals.
  • Both teams have shown tendencies to concede and score, making goal-rich encounters likely in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

China1.33
Avg goals scored
Maldives0.33
China1
Avg goals conceded
Maldives1.67
China67%
BTTS rate
Maldives33%
China67%
Over 2.5 goals
Maldives33%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 35% vs implied 20% · edge +15 pts
5
Check odds @ 5
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BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Recent form data reveals China scores 1.33 goals per game with a 67% BTTS rate, while Maldives concedes 1.67 goals per game and has a 33% BTTS rate. Head-to-head matches average 4.25 goals, indicating open games with scoring from both teams. These trends support a high probability of goals at both ends in this friendly.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 35% vs implied 20% · edge +15 pts
5
Check odds @ 5
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Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
DrawBetUK guide price · model 20%
21
Check odds @ 21
Maldives to WinBetMGM guide price · model 17%
51
Check odds @ 51
China to WinBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.01
Check odds @ 1.01
The Both Teams to Score market shows strong value as the of 61.2% far exceeds the market's implied 20%. This large suggests the market underestimates the likelihood of both sides scoring, likely due to Maldives' defensive struggles and China's offensive firepower. The pricing is favorable for a standard stake with no warnings needed.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

China10.5
Avg corners for
Maldives-
China13
Avg total corners
Maldives-
China1.5
Avg yellow cards
Maldives-
China17.5
Avg shots
Maldives-
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 69% vs implied 60% · edge +9.1 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price
2
Check odds @ 2
China's average of 17.5 shots and 10.5 corners per game reflects sustained attacking pressure and territorial control. The 1.5 average yellow cards suggest moderate fouling, possibly from Maldives trying to disrupt play. Maldives' lack of available data limits detailed analysis, but China's offensive metrics indicate a high chance of creating scoring opportunities.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

China

DWD
Last 51W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 0L
09 Jun 2026H Thailand0-0
05 Jun 2026A Singapore2-1
26 Jan 2026A Uzbekistan2-2

Maldives

DLL
Last 50W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 2L
07 Jun 2026H Bangladesh U231-1
04 Jun 2026H Pakistan0-3
01 Jun 2026H Afghanistan0-1
Best odds for this sectionDrawBetUK guide price · Model 20% vs implied 5% · edge +15 pts
21
Check odds @ 21
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Maldives to WinBetMGM guide price · model 17%
51
Check odds @ 51
China to WinBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.01
Check odds @ 1.01
China's recent form is solid with five points from three matches, scoring an average of 1.33 goals and conceding one per game. Maldives have struggled, earning only one point and conceding 1.67 goals per game. China's higher BTTS rate of 67% compared to Maldives' 33% suggests China is more consistent in matches where both teams score, reinforcing the BTTS pick.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4China wins
0Draws
0Maldives wins
11 Jun 2021China v Maldives5-0
10 Sep 2019Maldives v China0-5
24 Mar 2016China v Maldives4-0
08 Sep 2015Maldives v China0-3
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 35% vs implied 20% · edge +15 pts
5
Check odds @ 5
Load more odds for this section
DrawBetUK guide price · model 20%
21
Check odds @ 21
Maldives to WinBetMGM guide price · model 17%
51
Check odds @ 51
China to WinBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.01
Check odds @ 1.01
The four previous meetings between China and Maldives have averaged 4.25 goals per game, highlighting a history of open and attacking matches. This sample supports the likelihood of goals from both teams, though the small number of encounters means current form and tactical approaches should also be considered heavily.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Friendlies

China3
Played
Maldives3
China1.3
Avg goals for
Maldives0.3
China1
Avg goals against
Maldives1.7
China1
Clean sheets
Maldives0
Best odds for this sectionMaldives to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 17% vs implied 2% · edge +15 pts
51
Check odds @ 51
Load more odds for this section
China to WinBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.01
Check odds @ 1.01
Season-long stats show China maintains a strong attacking profile with 1.33 goals per game and a high BTTS rate of 67%, indicating frequent goal exchanges. Maldives' defensive record is weaker, conceding 1.67 goals per game and showing a lower BTTS rate, reflecting fewer matches with goals at both ends. This contrast supports the expectation of goals from both sides in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

67%China Over 2.5
33%Maldives Over 2.5
4.25H2H avg goals
Over the last four head-to-head meetings, the average goals per match is 4.25, indicating a trend toward high-scoring games. This suggests a fast tempo and open play style that favors Over 2.5 Goals. Both teams have shown tendencies to concede and score, making goal-rich encounters likely in this fixture.

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