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Chicago Fire crestChicago Fire
v
Philadelphia Union crestPhiladelphia Union

Major League Soccer | Thu 15 Oct, 01:30

Chicago Fire v Philadelphia Union Stats

Data last updated: Wed 14 Oct 2026, 07:53 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Chicago Fire face Philadelphia Union in Major League Soccer on Thu 15 Oct, 01:30. Chicago Fire come in with 9 recent points and 1.4 goals per match, while Philadelphia Union have 15 points and 4 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Philadelphia Union to Win

  • At 2.55, Philadelphia Union to Win implies roughly 39%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 54%.
  • Philadelphia Union have the stronger recent points return, taking 15 points from the sample compared with 9 for Chicago Fire.
  • Philadelphia Union have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Philadelphia Union to Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Chicago Fire sit 3 in the table, while Philadelphia Union sit 6, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 54% for Philadelphia Union to Win sits against roughly 39% implied by the current price. Philadelphia Union have the stronger recent points return, taking 15 points from the sample compared with 9 for Chicago Fire.

Model chance vs price54% model chance against roughly 39% implied
Strong positive
Philadelphia Union have the stronger recent points return, taking 15.Visible data support
Positive
Philadelphia Union have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Philadelphia Union Win is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Philadelphia Union have the stronger recent points return, taking 15 points from the sample compared with 9 for Chicago Fire. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

Philadelphia Union to Win evidence

Philadelphia Union have the stronger recent points return, taking 15 points from the sample compared with 9 for Chicago Fire.

Philadelphia Union have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Philadelphia Union Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Chicago Fire sit 3 in the table, while Philadelphia Union sit 6, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Philadelphia Union to Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Chicago Fire1.4
    Avg goals scored
    Philadelphia Union4
    Chicago Fire1.4
    Avg goals conceded
    Philadelphia Union1.2
    Chicago Fire60%
    BTTS rate
    Philadelphia Union60%
    Chicago Fire80%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Philadelphia Union100%
    Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 78% vs implied 69% · edge +8.6 pts
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
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    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 88%
    1.12
    Check odds @ 1.12
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 73%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 31%
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 26%
    2.7
    Check odds @ 2.7

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    Major League Soccer fixtures and predictionscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickPhiladelphia Union to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
    2.55
    Check odds @ 2.55
    Load more odds for this section
    Philadelphia Union Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 66%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 78%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 73%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 60%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Philadelphia Union to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Chicago Fire

    WWWLL
    Last 53W 0D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 4D 2L
    10 Oct 2026H New York City FC2-1
    07 Oct 2026H Vancouver Whitecaps3-1
    27 Sep 2026A Charlotte1-0
    20 Sep 2026A Nashville SC0-3
    13 Sep 2026H New England Revolution1-2

    Philadelphia Union

    WWWWW
    Last 55W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 108W 2D 0L
    11 Oct 2026H Real Salt Lake2-1
    27 Sep 2026H Orlando City SC4-2
    20 Sep 2026A Sporting Kansas City4-3
    14 Sep 2026A San Diego5-0
    10 Sep 2026H FC Cincinnati5-0
    Market aligned with main pickPhiladelphia Union to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
    2.55
    Check odds @ 2.55
    Load more odds for this section
    Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 80%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Philadelphia Union Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 66%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    80%Chicago Fire Over 2.5
    100%Philadelphia Union Over 2.5
    3.6H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Chicago Fire sit at 80% and Philadelphia Union sit at 100% with the H2H average at 3.6 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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