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Chelsea crestChelsea
v
Nottingham Forest crestNottingham Forest

Premier League | Mon 04 May, 15:00

Chelsea v Nottingham Forest Stats

Data last updated: Tue 16 Jun 2026, 13:40 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Chelsea face Nottingham Forest in Premier League on Mon 04 May, 15:00. Nottingham Forest are in exceptional form, losing only once in their last eleven matches while scoring thirteen goals in their last four league outings. Forest are unbeaten in their last nine matches across all competitions, losing just one of their last 11 overall.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Rationale: Nottingham Forest 2-0 Correct Score A 2-0 victory for the visitors is plausible given the extreme divergence in recent league productivity

  • At 6/5, Chelsea Win implies roughly 46%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 27%.
  • Chelsea's structural fragility has led to three or more conceded goals in five of their last eight matches recently.
  • Nottingham Forest have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 0 for Chelsea.
  • Nottingham Forest have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.4 conceded per match, which helps the Chelsea Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Chelsea sit 10 in the table, while Nottingham Forest sit 16, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.
Price warning

Rationale: Nottingham Forest 2-0 Correct Score A 2-0 victory for the visitors is plausible given the extreme divergence in recent league productivity is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 46% while the model sits nearer 27% (-18.5 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Nottingham Forest Draw No Bet shows a +21.9 pts edge at 1.85.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 27% for Chelsea Win sits against roughly 46% implied by the current price. Nottingham Forest have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 0 for Chelsea. Chelsea's structural fragility has led to three or more conceded goals in five of their last eight matches recently.

Model chance vs price27% model chance against roughly 46% implied
Negative
Nottingham Forest have the stronger recent points return, taking 11.Visible data support
Positive
Nottingham Forest have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.4 conceded.Visible data support
Positive
Chelsea's structural fragility has led to three or more.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Chelsea Win is the preferred angle because chelsea's structural fragility has led to three or more conceded goals in five of their last eight matches recently. Nottingham Forest have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 0 for Chelsea. Chelsea have failed to score in six of their last eight matches, a statistic that paints a picture of a side struggling not just with finishing, but with creativity, cohesion, and .

Main risk

Chelsea have failed to score in six of their last eight matches, a statistic that paints a picture of a side struggling not just with finishing, but with creativity, cohesion, and .

Key Data Signals

Chelsea Win evidence

Chelsea's structural fragility has led to three or more conceded goals in five of their last eight matches.

Nottingham Forest have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 0 for Chelsea.

Nottingham Forest have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.4 conceded per match, which helps the Chelsea Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Chelsea sit 10 in the table, while Nottingham Forest sit 16, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Chelsea Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Chelsea6.6
    Avg corners for
    Nottingham Forest5
    Chelsea11.2
    Avg total corners
    Nottingham Forest10.4
    Chelsea1.8
    Avg yellow cards
    Nottingham Forest2.2
    Chelsea14.6
    Avg shots
    Nottingham Forest10.8
    Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 48% · edge +9.4 pts
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
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    Over 10.5 CornersBetUK guide price
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 4.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Chelsea0
    Avg goals scored
    Nottingham Forest2.6
    Chelsea2.2
    Avg goals conceded
    Nottingham Forest0.4
    Chelsea0%
    BTTS rate
    Nottingham Forest40%
    Chelsea60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Nottingham Forest60%
    Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 80% vs implied 82% · edge -1.8 pts
    1.22
    Check odds @ 1.22
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    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 43%
    3.25
    Check odds @ 3.25
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 44%
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 42%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 61%
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Over 1.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: recent Over 2.5 rates are 60% for Chelsea and 60% for Nottingham Forest, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickChelsea to WinBetfred guide price · Model 27% vs implied 59% · edge -31.8 pts
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 43%
    3.25
    Check odds @ 3.25
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Chelsea Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Chelsea to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Chelsea

    LLLLL
    Last 50W 0D 5L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 2D 6L
    21 Apr 2026A Brighton0-3
    18 Apr 2026H Manchester United0-1
    12 Apr 2026H Manchester City0-3
    21 Mar 2026A Everton0-3
    14 Mar 2026H Newcastle0-1

    Nottingham Forest

    WWDWD
    Last 53W 2D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 4D 3L
    24 Apr 2026A Sunderland5-0
    19 Apr 2026H Burnley4-1
    12 Apr 2026H Aston Villa1-1
    22 Mar 2026A Tottenham3-0
    15 Mar 2026H Fulham0-0
    Market aligned with main pickChelsea to WinBetfred guide price · Model 27% vs implied 59% · edge -31.8 pts
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Load more odds for this section
    Chelsea Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 48%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    6Chelsea wins
    3Draws
    1Nottingham Forest wins
    18 Oct 2025Nottingham Forest v Chelsea0-3
    25 May 2025Nottingham Forest v Chelsea0-1
    06 Oct 2024Chelsea v Nottingham Forest1-1
    11 May 2024Nottingham Forest v Chelsea2-3
    02 Sep 2023Chelsea v Nottingham Forest0-1
    13 May 2023Chelsea v Nottingham Forest2-2
    Market aligned with main pickChelsea to WinBetfred guide price · Model 27% vs implied 59% · edge -31.8 pts
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 43%
    3.25
    Check odds @ 3.25
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Chelsea to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Premier League

    Chelsea38
    Played
    Nottingham Forest38
    Chelsea1.5
    Avg goals for
    Nottingham Forest1.3
    Chelsea1.4
    Avg goals against
    Nottingham Forest1.3
    Chelsea9
    Clean sheets
    Nottingham Forest9
    Market aligned with main pickChelsea to WinBetfred guide price · Model 27% vs implied 59% · edge -31.8 pts
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Load more odds for this section
    Chelsea Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Season data supports Chelsea to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    10Chelsea52381410146
    16Nottingham Forest4438111116-3
    Chelsea sit in position 10, while Nottingham Forest sit in position 16, so table pressure belongs in the Chelsea Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%Chelsea Over 2.5
    60%Nottingham Forest Over 2.5
    2.8H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Chelsea sit at 60% and Nottingham Forest sit at 60% with the H2H average at 2.8 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Chelsea v Nottingham Forest prediction

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