Football Stats Hub

Charlton crestCharlton
v
Derby crestDerby

Championship | Sat 15 Aug, 15:00

Charlton v Derby Stats

Data last updated: Fri 14 Aug 2026, 07:26 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Charlton face Derby in Championship on Sat 15 Aug, 15:00. Charlton lost six of their final eight home games last season, while Derby lost six of their last eight away league matches. Neither side brings convincing defensive form into the opener.

BT4Y match pick

Both Teams To Score YES

  • At 20/23, Both Teams To Score YES implies roughly 54%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 50%.
  • Selection: Both Teams To Score YES.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 50% for Both Teams To Score YES sits against roughly 54% implied by the current price. Selection: Both Teams To Score YES.

Model chance vs price50% model chance against roughly 54% implied
Negative
Selection: Both Teams To Score YES.Article support
Positive
Price sensitivityEdge -3.5 pts
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Both Teams To Score is the preferred angle because selection: Both Teams To Score YES. The defeat to Lincoln was particularly concerning because Eustace used a strong side featuring Carlton Morris and Sammie Szmodics, but Derby still struggled to create meaningful opportunities.

Main risk

The defeat to Lincoln was particularly concerning because Eustace used a strong side featuring Carlton Morris and Sammie Szmodics, but Derby still struggled to create meaningful opportunities.

Key Data Signals

Both Teams To Score YES evidence

Selection: Both Teams To Score YES.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams To Score YES notes

  • Use shots on target to decide whether attacking involvement is shared or one-sided.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Charlton-
Avg goals scored
Derby-
Charlton-
Avg goals conceded
Derby-
Charlton-
BTTS rate
Derby-
Charlton-
Over 2.5 goals
Derby-
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 50% vs implied 55% · edge -4.6 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 49%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 54%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 31%
4
Check odds @ 4
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS Yes does not fully support the current price; this needs scoring involvement from both teams, not just pressure from one side.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Championship hubrelated match predictionplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 50% vs implied 55% · edge -4.6 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 49%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Derby Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 46%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Charlton to WinBetfred guide price · model 35%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Derby to WinBetUK guide price · model 35%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 29%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
BTTS Yes is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Charlton

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Charlton yet.

Derby

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Derby yet.

Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 69% · edge -4.6 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Derby Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 46%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Charlton to WinBetfred guide price · model 35%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Derby to WinBetUK guide price · model 35%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 29%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Charlton Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 46%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Charlton wins
2Draws
5Derby wins
20 Jan 2026Charlton v Derby1-2
30 Sep 2025Derby v Charlton1-1
27 Feb 2024Derby v Charlton1-2
03 Feb 2024Charlton v Derby0-1
18 Feb 2023Derby v Charlton2-0
06 Aug 2022Charlton v Derby1-0
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 50% vs implied 55% · edge -4.6 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 49%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Charlton to WinBetfred guide price · model 35%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Derby to WinBetUK guide price · model 35%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 29%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
The head-to-head sample gives context for BTTS Yes, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Championship

Charlton8
Played
Derby8
Charlton0.9
Avg goals for
Derby0.9
Charlton1.3
Avg goals against
Derby1.8
Charlton3
Clean sheets
Derby1
Best odds for this sectionDerby Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 46% vs implied 51% · edge -5 pts
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Load more odds for this section
Charlton to WinBetfred guide price · model 35%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Derby to WinBetUK guide price · model 35%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Charlton Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 46%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Season data supports Derby Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
9Charlton128332-3
22Derby58125-7
Charlton sit in position 9, while Derby sit in position 22, so table pressure belongs in the Both Teams To Score YES assessment.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

-Charlton Over 2.5
-Derby Over 2.5
2.1H2H avg goals
Selection: Both Teams To Score YES.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Charlton v Derby prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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Next step

Betting context

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