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Chapecoense-sc crestChapecoense-sc
v
Sao Paulo crestSao Paulo

Serie A | Sun 23 Aug, 22:30

Chapecoense-sc v Sao Paulo Stats

Data last updated: Sat 22 Aug 2026, 07:37 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Chapecoense-sc faces Sao Paulo in a Serie A clash where both teams have struggled defensively but shown attacking intent. Chapecoense-sc, sitting at the bottom of the table, have conceded heavily but maintain a high rate of scoring in matches. Sao Paulo, positioned mid-table, have a more balanced defensive record but still concede regularly. Both sides will look to capitalize on offensive opportunities, making this encounter potentially open and competitive with goals expected at both ends.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Chapecoense-sc concedes 2.6 goals per game but scores 1.2 on average, showing defensive frailty and attacking threat.
  • Sao Paulo has an 80% BTTS rate in recent matches, indicating consistent goal-scoring and conceding.
  • Both teams average over 10 shots per game combined, with Sao Paulo slightly more prolific in shots on target.
  • The head-to-head average goals stand at 2.4 per game, supporting an open game with scoring chances for both sides.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 76% chance to both teams scoring, reflecting strong attacking patterns and defensive vulnerabilities on both sides. Chapecoense-sc's high goals conceded rate and Sao Paulo's consistent BTTS record underpin this view. The at 1.91 offer positive value with a 23.6% edge over the implied chance. While Chapecoense-sc's defensive struggles increase risk, Sao Paulo's balanced attack and defense suggest goals at both ends are likely. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Chapecoense-sc Defensive Record2.6 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Sao Paulo BTTS Rate80% recent matches
Strong positive
Model Probability76% chance of BTTS
Strong positive
Odds Value Edge23.6% positive edge
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both teams have shown a tendency to both score and concede goals recently, making a Both Teams to Score bet tactically sound. Chapecoense-sc's defensive weaknesses combined with Sao Paulo's attacking consistency create a scenario where goals at both ends are probable. The data supports this with high BTTS rates and shot volumes, indicating an open game likely to produce goals from both sides.

Main risk

Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Both Teams to Score

“The attacking intent from both Chapecoense-sc and Sao Paulo, coupled with their defensive vulnerabilities, makes Both Teams to Score a compelling angle. The match dynamics suggest an open contest where both sides find the net.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Chapecoense-sc concedes 2.6 goals per game but scores 1.2 on average, showing defensive frailty and attacking threat.

Sao Paulo has an 80% BTTS rate in recent matches, indicating consistent goal-scoring and conceding.

Both teams average over 10 shots per game combined, with Sao Paulo slightly more prolific in shots on target.

The head-to-head average goals stand at 2.4 per game, supporting an open game with scoring chances for both sides.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • The last 10 head-to-head matches average 2.4 goals, indicating a moderately high-scoring trend.
  • Chapecoense-sc's 80% over 2.5 goals rate and Sao Paulo's 40% rate suggest variable but frequent goal occurrences, supporting an open game with scoring opportunities for both sides.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Chapecoense-sc1.2
Avg goals scored
Sao Paulo0.8
Chapecoense-sc2.6
Avg goals conceded
Sao Paulo1.4
Chapecoense-sc60%
BTTS rate
Sao Paulo80%
Chapecoense-sc80%
Over 2.5 goals
Sao Paulo40%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 46%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Chapecoense-sc's defensive record of conceding 2.6 goals per game contrasts with their ability to score 1.2 goals, while Sao Paulo maintains an 80% BTTS rate. These attacking and defensive patterns indicate a high probability of goals at both ends, supporting the BTTS selection.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Chapecoense-sc to WinBetfred guide price · model 40%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Sao Paulo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Sao Paulo to WinBet365 guide price · model 44%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Chapecoense-sc Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
The current of 1.91 for Both Teams to Score reflect a market that recognizes the likelihood of goals from both sides but still offers positive value against the model's 76% probability. This pricing suggests a good opportunity to back BTTS without significant price sensitivity.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Chapecoense-sc4.2
Avg corners for
Sao Paulo7
Chapecoense-sc11.2
Avg total corners
Sao Paulo11.5
Chapecoense-sc1.4
Avg yellow cards
Sao Paulo1
Chapecoense-sc10.4
Avg shots
Sao Paulo13.5
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 69% vs implied 60% · edge +9.1 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
1.92
Check odds @ 1.92
Over 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Both teams generate a healthy number of shots per game, with Sao Paulo averaging 12.25 shots and Chapecoense-sc 10.4, indicating sustained offensive pressure. Sao Paulo also averages more corners and yellow cards, reflecting an aggressive style that can lead to set-piece opportunities and fouls, further increasing goal chances.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Chapecoense-sc

DLDLL
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 3D 7L
16 Aug 2026H Bahia3-3
09 Aug 2026A Coritiba1-2
25 Jul 2026A Santos2-2
23 Jul 2026H Flamengo0-4
17 Jul 2026A Bahia0-2

Sao Paulo

DLDLL
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 4D 5L
16 Aug 2026H Coritiba1-1
08 Aug 2026A Gremio1-2
26 Jul 2026A Flamengo1-1
23 Jul 2026H Atletico Paranaense1-2
01 Jun 2026A Remo0-1
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetUK guide price · Model 69% vs implied 58% · edge +11.2 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
Chapecoense-sc to WinBetfred guide price · model 40%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Sao Paulo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Sao Paulo to WinBet365 guide price · model 44%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Chapecoense-sc Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 29%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Recent form shows Chapecoense-sc scoring 1.2 goals but conceding 2.6 per game, highlighting defensive struggles. Sao Paulo scores less at 0.8 but concedes 1.4, with an 80% BTTS rate. Both teams' recent matches suggest openness and goal-scoring at both ends, reinforcing the BTTS pick.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Chapecoense-sc wins
3Draws
4Sao Paulo wins
12 Mar 2026Sao Paulo v Chapecoense-sc2-0
03 Oct 2021Chapecoense-sc v Sao Paulo1-1
16 Jun 2021Sao Paulo v Chapecoense-sc1-1
03 Nov 2019Chapecoense-SC v Sao Paulo0-3
23 Jul 2019Sao Paulo v Chapecoense-SC4-0
02 Dec 2018Chapecoense-sc v Sao Paulo1-0
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Chapecoense-sc to WinBetfred guide price · model 40%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Sao Paulo to WinBet365 guide price · model 44%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 29%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
The 10 previous meetings between Chapecoense-sc and Sao Paulo have averaged 2.4 goals per game, showing a tendency for matches with multiple goals. This historical trend supports the expectation of both teams finding the net, though the sample size is moderate and should be combined with current form data.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Serie A

Chapecoense-sc23
Played
Sao Paulo23
Chapecoense-sc1
Avg goals for
Sao Paulo1.2
Chapecoense-sc2
Avg goals against
Sao Paulo1.2
Chapecoense-sc2
Clean sheets
Sao Paulo4
Best odds for this sectionChapecoense-sc to WinBetfred guide price · Model 40% vs implied 26% · edge +14.4 pts
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Load more odds for this section
Sao Paulo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Sao Paulo to WinBet365 guide price · model 44%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Chapecoense-sc Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Season-long data reveals Chapecoense-sc's porous defense and moderate attack, while Sao Paulo balances a decent attack with a more stable defense. Both teams' season stats align with a high likelihood of both scoring, fitting the BTTS market profile.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
13Sao Paulo272376100
20Chapecoense-sc14232813-22
Chapecoense-sc sits at the bottom of the table with 11 points, under pressure to improve results, while Sao Paulo is mid-table with 27 points. The standings context suggests Chapecoense-sc will push forward aggressively, increasing chances for both teams to score in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Chapecoense-sc Over 2.5
40%Sao Paulo Over 2.5
2.4H2H avg goals
The last 10 head-to-head matches average 2.4 goals, indicating a moderately high-scoring trend. Chapecoense-sc's 80% over 2.5 goals rate and Sao Paulo's 40% rate suggest variable but frequent goal occurrences, supporting an open game with scoring opportunities for both sides.

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