Football Stats Hub

Celtic crestCeltic
v
Dunfermline crestDunfermline

FA Cup | Sat 23 May, 15:00

Celtic v Dunfermline Stats

Data last updated: Tue 09 Jun 2026, 03:33 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Celtic face Dunfermline in FA Cup on Sat 23 May, 15:00. An 87th-minute winner changed the atmosphere before Callum Osmand’s stoppage-time strike sealed a fifth consecutive league title in scenes bordering on chaos.

BT4Y match pick

Celtic Win

  • At 9/5, Celtic Win implies roughly 36%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 34%.
  • However, O'Neill's side have shown defensive vulnerabilities, conceding in nine of their last ten matches, meaning resilient underdogs Dunfermline can find the net.
  • Dunfermline have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 10 for Celtic.
  • Dunfermline have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.2 conceded per match, which helps the Celtic Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 34% for Celtic Win sits against roughly 36% implied by the current price. Dunfermline have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 10 for Celtic. However, O'Neill's side have shown defensive vulnerabilities, conceding in nine of their last ten matches, meaning resilient underdogs Dunfermline can find the net.

Model chance vs price34% model chance against roughly 36% implied
Neutral
Dunfermline have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points.Visible data support
Positive
Dunfermline have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.2 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
However, O'Neill's side have shown defensive vulnerabilities, conceding in.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Celtic Win is the preferred angle because however, O'Neill's side have shown defensive vulnerabilities, conceding in nine of their last ten matches, meaning resilient underdogs Dunfermline can find the net. Dunfermline have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 10 for Celtic. Dunfermline possess cup resilience after knocking out top clubs, meaning they can strike but will ultimately be outpowered by Celtic's immense momentum.

Main risk

Dunfermline possess cup resilience after knocking out top clubs, meaning they can strike but will ultimately be outpowered by Celtic's immense momentum.

Key Data Signals

Celtic Win evidence

However, O'Neill's side have shown defensive vulnerabilities, conceding in nine of their last ten matches, meaning resilient underdogs.

Dunfermline have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 10 for Celtic.

Dunfermline have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.2 conceded per match, which helps the Celtic Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Celtic Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Celtic5
    Avg corners for
    Dunfermline7
    Celtic13
    Avg total corners
    Dunfermline13
    Celtic1
    Avg yellow cards
    Dunfermline1
    Celtic0
    Avg shots
    Dunfermline14
    Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 51% vs implied 48% · edge +3.4 pts
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    FA Cup fixtures and predictionsfull betting preview for Celtic v Dunfermlinecorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Celtic2.5
    Avg goals scored
    Dunfermline1.6
    Celtic0.75
    Avg goals conceded
    Dunfermline0.2
    Celtic50%
    BTTS rate
    Dunfermline20%
    Celtic50%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Dunfermline40%
    Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 54% vs implied 40% · edge +14.4 pts
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 49%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 55%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 68%
    1.14
    Check odds @ 1.14
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 32%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickCeltic to WinBetfred guide price · Model 34% vs implied 85% · edge -50.3 pts
    1.18
    Check odds @ 1.18
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 51%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 49%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Celtic Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
    1.1
    Check odds @ 1.1
    Celtic to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Celtic

    WDWW
    Last 53W 1D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 1D 0L
    19 Apr 2026H ST Mirren6-2
    08 Mar 2026A Rangers0-0
    07 Feb 2026H Dundee2-1
    18 Jan 2026A Auchinleck Talbot2-0

    Dunfermline

    DWWWW
    Last 54W 1D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 1D 0L
    18 Apr 2026H Falkirk0-0
    07 Mar 2026H Aberdeen3-0
    07 Feb 2026H Kelty Hearts2-0
    17 Jan 2026H Hibernian1-0
    29 Nov 2025H Queen of the South2-1
    Market aligned with main pickCeltic to WinBetfred guide price · Model 34% vs implied 85% · edge -50.3 pts
    1.18
    Check odds @ 1.18
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 62%
    1.02
    Check odds @ 1.02
    Celtic Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
    1.1
    Check odds @ 1.1
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    4Celtic wins
    0Draws
    0Dunfermline wins
    17 Aug 2019Celtic v Dunfermline2-1
    22 Feb 2012Celtic v Dunfermline2-0
    02 Jan 2012Dunfermline v Celtic0-3
    23 Nov 2011Celtic v Dunfermline2-1
    Market aligned with main pickCeltic to WinBetfred guide price · Model 34% vs implied 85% · edge -50.3 pts
    1.18
    Check odds @ 1.18
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 49%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Celtic to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    FA Cup

    Celtic5
    Played
    Dunfermline6
    Celtic2.8
    Avg goals for
    Dunfermline1.7
    Celtic0.8
    Avg goals against
    Dunfermline0.7
    Celtic2
    Clean sheets
    Dunfermline4
    Market aligned with main pickCeltic to WinBetfred guide price · Model 34% vs implied 85% · edge -50.3 pts
    1.18
    Check odds @ 1.18
    Load more odds for this section
    Celtic Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
    1.1
    Check odds @ 1.1
    Season data supports Celtic to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    50%Celtic Over 2.5
    40%Dunfermline Over 2.5
    2.75H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Celtic sit at 50% and Dunfermline sit at 40% with the H2H average at 2.75 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Celtic v Dunfermline prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

    More stats pages

    Browse football stats pages

    Open the main stats hub for the latest fixture dashboards.

    Competition and hubs

    FA Cup hubFA Cup fixtures and predictionsfull betting preview for Celtic v Dunfermlinecorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hub

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

    Read full prediction View match centre