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Ceara crestCeara
v
Criciuma crestCriciuma

Serie B | Thu 08 Oct, 23:30

Ceara v Criciuma Stats

Data last updated: Wed 07 Oct 2026, 08:23 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Criciuma hosts Ceara in a Serie B clash marked by contrasting home and away dynamics. Criciuma arrives unbeaten in their last seven league matches, boasting a formidable home record with 19 consecutive scoring games at Estádio Heriberto Hülse. Their disciplined defensive approach has kept five of their last six matches under 2.5 goals. Ceara, meanwhile, struggles on the road with four defeats in six away fixtures, despite showing attacking threat. This match promises a tactical battle between Criciuma's structured home control and Ceara's volatile away form, with both sides eager to assert control and secure vital points.

BT4Y match pick

Criciuma Win & Under 2.5 Goals

  • Criciuma unbeaten in last 7 Serie B matches and scored in 19 consecutive home games
  • Criciuma’s last 5 of 6 matches featured under 3 goals, showing defensive discipline
  • Ceara lost 4 of their last 6 away matches, indicating away instability
  • Criciuma averages 61 dangerous attacks per match, applying sustained pressure

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model supports Criciuma to win with under 2.5 goals based on their strong home form and defensive solidity, combined with Ceara's inconsistent away performances. Criciuma’s ability to maintain possession and generate high-quality attacks while restricting opponents aligns with a low-scoring home victory. Although the price is slightly short, the tactical setup and recent data justify cautious backing of this selection. The limited away form of Ceara and Criciuma’s scoring consistency at home underpin the model's in this outcome.

Home formUnbeaten in last 7 matches with 19 consecutive home scoring games
Strong positive
Defensive record5 of last 6 Criciuma matches under 2.5 goals
Positive
Away formCeara lost 4 of last 6 away games
Positive
Price sensitivity15.5% model chance vs 18.2% implied (-2.7 pts)
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Criciuma’s home consistency and defensive discipline make them the logical choice for a narrow victory with limited goals. Ceara’s away struggles and recent defeats suggest they may struggle to break down a well-organized home side. This bet reflects the tactical battle where Criciuma’s control and pressure should prevail.

Main risk

They are dangerous, but not always secure.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · home control and defensive solidity

“Criciuma’s unbeaten home run and ability to control matches through possession and pressure create a strong foundation for a low-scoring win against a Ceara side vulnerable on the road.”

Key Data Signals

Criciuma Win & Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Criciuma unbeaten in last 7 Serie B matches and scored in 19 consecutive home games

Criciuma’s last 5 of 6 matches featured under 3 goals, showing defensive discipline

Ceara lost 4 of their last 6 away matches, indicating away instability

Criciuma averages 61 dangerous attacks per match, applying sustained pressure

What To Watch In The Data

Criciuma Win & Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2.6, with Criciuma’s home matches trending towards under 2.5 goals.
  • Ceara’s recent away games have featured more goals, but Criciuma’s tactical control and defensive discipline suggest this match will lean towards a lower scoring tempo with controlled chances.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickCriciuma to WinBetUK guide price · Model 28% vs implied 32% · edge -4.7 pts
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 60%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Criciuma Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 42%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The 15.5% for Criciuma Win & Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 18.2% implied by the current price (-2.7 pts). Five of Criciúma’s past six fixtures featured fewer than three goals, showing disciplined defensive structures at home.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Ceara1.4
Avg goals scored
Criciuma1
Ceara1.2
Avg goals conceded
Criciuma1.6
Ceara80%
BTTS rate
Criciuma0%
Ceara60%
Over 2.5 goals
Criciuma40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 60% vs implied 50% · edge +10 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 68%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 32%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 54%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 44%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Criciuma’s recent matches show a clear trend towards low-scoring affairs, with five of their last six games under 2.5 goals and no BTTS in recent home fixtures. Ceara’s away matches tend to be more open, but their defensive fragility and Criciuma’s control suggest a low-scoring game with Criciuma likely to keep a clean sheet or concede minimally.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Ceara

WDWDL
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 4L
03 Oct 2026A Avai1-0
26 Sep 2026A Operario-PR2-2
19 Sep 2026H Novorizontino2-1
13 Sep 2026A Fortaleza EC1-1
10 Sep 2026A Atletico Goianiense1-2

Criciuma

WWLLL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 5L
03 Oct 2026A Londrina2-0
27 Sep 2026H Avai3-0
22 Sep 2026H Operario-PR0-2
13 Sep 2026A Atletico Goianiense0-4
09 Sep 2026H Juventude0-2
Market aligned with main pickAway / DrawBetUK guide price · Model 53% vs implied 65% · edge -12 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
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Criciuma to WinBetUK guide price · model 28%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Criciuma Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 42%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Criciuma’s unbeaten streak and recent defensive solidity at home contrast with Ceara’s patchy away form marked by four defeats in six matches. Criciuma’s ability to control possession and limit opposition chances has been pivotal, while Ceara’s inconsistency and defensive lapses away from home reduce their chances of an upset.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Ceara Over 2.5
40%Criciuma Over 2.5
2.6H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2.6, with Criciuma’s home matches trending towards under 2.5 goals. Ceara’s recent away games have featured more goals, but Criciuma’s tactical control and defensive discipline suggest this match will lean towards a lower scoring tempo with controlled chances.

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