Casa Pia

Moreirense

Primeira Liga | Sun 30 Aug, 18:00

Casa Pia v Moreirense Stats

Data last updated: Tue 22 Sep 2026, 04:19 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Casa Pia face Moreirense in Primeira Liga on Sun 30 Aug, 18:00. Casa Pia have scored 0 goals and conceded 10 across their opening three league matches, the clearest measure of how badly both ends of the pitch need attention.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Could reshape Casa Pia’s attack The more immediate question surrounds Casa Pia’s attack

At 8/15, Could reshape Casa Pia’s attack The more immediate question surrounds Casa Pia’s attack implies roughly 65%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 38%.
Risk Factor: The selection fails if Casa Pia repeat recent defensive lapses or if Moreirense force an open, high-scoring match.
The Over 2.5 trend is 33% for Casa Pia and 100% for Moreirense, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Moreirense are carrying more of the scoring load at 1 goals per match, with Casa Pia at 0.
BTTS rates of 0% for Casa Pia and 50% for Moreirense show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

Price warning

Could reshape Casa Pia’s attack The more immediate question surrounds Casa Pia’s attack is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 65% while the model sits nearer 38% (-27.5 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Over 3.5 Goals shows a +15 pts edge at 4.5.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 38% for Could reshape Casa Pia’s attack The more immediate question surrounds Casa Pia’s attack sits against roughly 65% implied by the current price. The Over 2.5 trend is 33% for Casa Pia and 100% for Moreirense, so the goals angle is not just a price call. Risk Factor: The selection fails if Casa Pia repeat recent defensive lapses or if Moreirense force an open, high-scoring match.

Model chance vs price38% model chance against roughly 65% implied

Negative

The Over 2.5 trend is 33% for Casa Pia.Visible data support

Positive

Moreirense are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.Visible data support

Positive

Risk Factor: The selection fails if Casa Pia repeat.Article support

Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Under that scoring level is the preferred angle because under 2.5 Goals is supported by both teams’ low scoring rates and ongoing winless runs at home and away. Moreirense are carrying more of the scoring load at that scoring level per match, with Casa Pia at 0. The immediate contrast is not between strength and weakness, but between two teams trying to correct poor starts in different ways.

Main risk

The immediate contrast is not between strength and weakness, but between two teams trying to correct poor starts in different ways.

Key Data Signals

Could reshape Casa Pia’s attack The more immediate question surrounds Casa Pia’s attack evidence

Under 2.5 Goals is supported by both teams’ low scoring rates and ongoing winless runs at home.

Moreirense are carrying more of the scoring load at 1 goals per match, with Casa Pia at 0.

BTTS rates of 0% for Casa Pia and 50% for Moreirense show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

What To Watch In The Data

Could reshape Casa Pia’s attack The more immediate question surrounds Casa Pia’s attack notes

The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Casa Pia0

Avg goals scored

Moreirense1

Casa Pia3.33

Avg goals conceded

Moreirense3

Casa Pia0%

BTTS rate

Moreirense50%

Casa Pia33%

Over 2.5 goals

Moreirense100%

Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 38% vs implied 65% · edge -27.7 pts

1.53

Check odds @ 1.53

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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 84%

1.44

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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%

2.4

Check odds @ 2.4

Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 37%

4.5

Check odds @ 4.5

BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 50%

2.05

Check odds @ 2.05

BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 54%

1.7

Check odds @ 1.7

Under 2.5 Goals does not fully support the current price: recent Over 2.5 rates are 33% for Casa Pia and 100% for Moreirense, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts

2.4

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BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 50%

2.05

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Moreirense to WinBet365 guide price · model 37%

3.2

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Moreirense Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 46%

2.08

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Casa Pia to WinBetMGM guide price · model 35%

2.38

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DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%

3.1

Check odds @ 3.1

Casa Pia Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%

1.72

Check odds @ 1.72

Over 2.5 Goals is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Casa Pia3.67

Avg corners for

Moreirense3.5

Casa Pia6.33

Avg total corners

Moreirense7

Casa Pia2

Avg yellow cards

Moreirense4

Casa Pia8.33

Avg shots

Moreirense6

Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.

3.75

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Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 35%

Check odds @ 2

Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 29%

1.98

Check odds @ 1.98

Over 10.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Casa Pia

LLL

Last 50W 0D 3L

Last 5 record

Last 100W 0D 3L

24 Aug 2026A GIL Vicente0-2

17 Aug 2026H Benfica0-7

08 Aug 2026A Maritimo0-1

Moreirense

Last 50W 1D 1L

Last 5 record

Last 100W 1D 1L

16 Aug 2026A Arouca0-4

09 Aug 2026H SC Braga2-2

Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 65% · edge -0.7 pts

1.53

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Moreirense to WinBet365 guide price · model 37%

3.2

Check odds @ 3.2

Moreirense Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 46%

2.08

Check odds @ 2.08

Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 63%

1.36

Check odds @ 1.36

Casa Pia to WinBetMGM guide price · model 35%

2.38

Check odds @ 2.38

DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%

3.1

Check odds @ 3.1

Casa Pia Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%

1.72

Check odds @ 1.72

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Casa Pia wins

1Draws

3Moreirense wins

01 Mar 2026Casa Pia v Moreirense1-1

27 Sep 2025Moreirense v Casa Pia2-1

15 Feb 2025Moreirense v Casa Pia3-2

14 Sep 2024Casa Pia v Moreirense3-1

12 May 2024Casa Pia v Moreirense0-1

08 Jan 2024Moreirense v Casa Pia1-4

Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts

2.4

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BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 50%

2.05

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Moreirense to WinBet365 guide price · model 37%

3.2

Check odds @ 3.2

Casa Pia to WinBetMGM guide price · model 35%

2.38

Check odds @ 2.38

DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%

3.1

Check odds @ 3.1

The head-to-head sample gives context for Over 2.5 Goals, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Primeira Liga

Casa Pia7

Played

Moreirense7

Casa Pia0.4

Avg goals for

Moreirense1.1

Casa Pia2.3

Avg goals against

Moreirense2

Casa Pia1

Clean sheets

Moreirense1

Best odds for this sectionMoreirense to WinBet365 guide price · Model 37% vs implied 31% · edge +5.3 pts

3.2

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Moreirense Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 46%

2.08

Check odds @ 2.08

Casa Pia to WinBetMGM guide price · model 35%

2.38

Check odds @ 2.38

Casa Pia Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%

1.72

Check odds @ 1.72

Season data supports Moreirense to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
12	Moreirense	8	7	2	2	3	-6
17	Casa Pia	4	7	1	1	5	-13

Casa Pia sit in position 17, while Moreirense sit in position 12, so table pressure belongs in the Could reshape Casa Pia’s attack The more immediate question surrounds Casa Pia’s attack assessment.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

33%Casa Pia Over 2.5

100%Moreirense Over 2.5

3H2H avg goals

The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Casa Pia sit at 33% and Moreirense sit at 100% with the H2H average at 3 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

Read full prediction View match centre

Football Stats Hub

Casa Pia v Moreirense Stats

Match Report

Could reshape Casa Pia’s attack The more immediate question surrounds Casa Pia’s attack

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Verdict

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Casa Pia

Moreirense

Next step

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Football Stats Hub

Casa Pia v Moreirense Stats

Match Report

Could reshape Casa Pia’s attack The more immediate question surrounds Casa Pia’s attack

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Verdict

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Casa Pia

Moreirense

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Prediction context

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