Casa Pia

Moreirense

Primeira Liga | Sun 30 Aug, 18:00

Casa Pia v Moreirense Stats

Data last updated: Sat 29 Aug 2026, 07:54 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Casa Pia and Moreirense meet in the Primeira Liga with both sides struggling offensively and defensively. Casa Pia have failed to score in their opening three league matches, conceding 10 goals, while Moreirense have averaged just 0.8 goals per game over their last 10 matches and are winless in six away games. Both teams have poor recent home and away records respectively, and their attacking inefficiency suggests a cautious, low-scoring encounter. The match could hinge on which side manages to convert limited chances, with defensive vulnerabilities on both sides adding uncertainty to the outcome.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Under 2.5 Goals

Price warning: current odds imply about 65%, above the 38% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
Casa Pia have scored 0 goals and conceded 10 in their first three league matches.
Moreirense average 0.8 goals per game over their last 10 league fixtures.
Both teams are on extended winless streaks at home (Casa Pia) and away (Moreirense).
Recent meetings show Moreirense unbeaten in the last three encounters with Casa Pia.

Price warning

Under 2.5 Goals is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 65% while the model sits nearer 38% (-27.7 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Moreirense Draw No Bet shows a +15 pts edge at 2.08.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The model identifies Under 2.5 Goals as the best fit given the low scoring rates of Casa Pia (0.4 goals per game) and Moreirense (0.8 goals per game) over recent matches. Both teams have struggled to create and convert clear chances, with Casa Pia failing to score in three matches and Moreirense producing limited shots on target. Despite the defensive weaknesses, the lack of attacking fluency suggests a low-goal game. However, the current are short compared to the , indicating a price-sensitive selection where reduced staking or waiting for better is advisable.

Price / value38% model chance vs 65% implied (-27.7 pts)

Negative

Casa Pia scoring rate0.4 goals per game (last 10)

Strong positive

Moreirense scoring rate0.8 goals per game (last 10)

Positive

Shot volume and qualityLow shots on target for both teams

Positive

Current odds vs model chanceOdds imply 65.2% chance vs model 37.7%

Negative

Main risk

The immediate contrast is not between strength and weakness, but between two teams trying to correct poor starts in different ways.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · match scoring potential

“This fixture features two teams with limited attacking output and ongoing scoring difficulties, making Under 2.5 Goals a logical choice despite defensive frailties. The low shot quality and recent form data reinforce the expectation of a cautious, low-scoring encounter.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Casa Pia have scored 0 goals and conceded 10 in their first three league matches.

Moreirense average 0.8 goals per game over their last 10 league fixtures.

Both teams are on extended winless streaks at home (Casa Pia) and away (Moreirense).

Recent meetings show Moreirense unbeaten in the last three encounters with Casa Pia.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

Over the last seven head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game is 3, indicating some historical openness.
However, recent matches have been tighter, with Moreirense unbeaten in the last three encounters.
The trend suggests a moderate tempo with occasional goal bursts, but current form and attacking limitations point towards fewer goals in this fixture.

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Casa Pia0

Avg goals scored

Moreirense1

Casa Pia3.33

Avg goals conceded

Moreirense3

Casa Pia0%

BTTS rate

Moreirense50%

Casa Pia33%

Over 2.5 goals

Moreirense100%

Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 38% vs implied 65% · edge -27.7 pts

1.53

Check odds @ 1.53

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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 84%

1.44

Check odds @ 1.44

Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%

2.4

Check odds @ 2.4

Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 37%

4.5

Check odds @ 4.5

BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 50%

2.05

Check odds @ 2.05

BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 54%

1.7

Check odds @ 1.7

Both teams have low scoring averages and limited shot quality, with Casa Pia failing to score in three matches and Moreirense averaging 0.8 goals per game. BTTS No is supported by Casa Pia's zero BTTS rate and Moreirense's 50%, indicating a reasonable chance that one or both teams may fail to score, reinforcing the Under 3.5 and Under 2.5 Goals context.

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionMoreirense Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts

2.08

Check odds @ 2.08

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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%

2.4

Check odds @ 2.4

Moreirense to WinBet365 guide price · model 46%

3.2

Check odds @ 3.2

BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 50%

2.05

Check odds @ 2.05

Casa Pia Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%

1.72

Check odds @ 1.72

DrawBet365 guide price · model 26%

3.1

Check odds @ 3.1

Casa Pia to WinBetMGM guide price · model 30%

2.38

Check odds @ 2.38

The Under 2.5 Goals market is priced at 1.53 with an implied probability of 65.2%, which is significantly higher than the model's 37.7% chance. This discrepancy indicates the price is short and the selection is price-sensitive rather than a clear value bet. Improved value would require drift or stronger late data confirming low scoring tendencies.

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Casa Pia3.67

Avg corners for

Moreirense3.5

Casa Pia6.33

Avg total corners

Moreirense7

Casa Pia2

Avg yellow cards

Moreirense4

Casa Pia8.33

Avg shots

Moreirense6

Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.

3.75

Check odds @ 3.75

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Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 35%

Check odds @ 2

Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 29%

1.98

Check odds @ 1.98

Both teams average similar corner counts (Casa Pia 3.67, Moreirense 3.5) and shots per game are modest (Casa Pia 8.33, Moreirense 6). Moreirense accumulate more yellow cards (4 per game) than Casa Pia (2), suggesting a more aggressive defensive approach. The moderate shot volume and pressure levels align with a controlled, low-tempo match.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Casa Pia

LLL

Last 50W 0D 3L

Last 5 record

Last 100W 0D 3L

24 Aug 2026A GIL Vicente0-2

17 Aug 2026H Benfica0-7

08 Aug 2026A Maritimo0-1

Moreirense

Last 50W 1D 1L

Last 5 record

Last 100W 1D 1L

16 Aug 2026A Arouca0-4

09 Aug 2026H SC Braga2-2

Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 80% vs implied 65% · edge +14.9 pts

1.53

Check odds @ 1.53

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Moreirense Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 63%

2.08

Check odds @ 2.08

Moreirense to WinBet365 guide price · model 46%

3.2

Check odds @ 3.2

Casa Pia Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%

1.72

Check odds @ 1.72

Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 55%

1.36

Check odds @ 1.36

DrawBet365 guide price · model 26%

3.1

Check odds @ 3.1

Casa Pia to WinBetMGM guide price · model 30%

2.38

Check odds @ 2.38

Recent form data shows Casa Pia with 0 points and 0 goals scored over their last three matches, conceding an average of 3.33 goals per game. Moreirense have 1 point and 1 goal scored, conceding 3 goals per game. Casa Pia's Under 2.5 Goals rate is 33%, while Moreirense's is 100%, reflecting Moreirense's matches tending to be lower scoring. This form supports a cautious game with limited goal-scoring opportunities.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Casa Pia wins

1Draws

3Moreirense wins

01 Mar 2026Casa Pia v Moreirense1-1

27 Sep 2025Moreirense v Casa Pia2-1

15 Feb 2025Moreirense v Casa Pia3-2

14 Sep 2024Casa Pia v Moreirense3-1

12 May 2024Casa Pia v Moreirense0-1

08 Jan 2024Moreirense v Casa Pia1-4

Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts

2.4

Check odds @ 2.4

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Moreirense to WinBet365 guide price · model 46%

3.2

Check odds @ 3.2

BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 50%

2.05

Check odds @ 2.05

DrawBet365 guide price · model 26%

3.1

Check odds @ 3.1

Casa Pia to WinBetMGM guide price · model 30%

2.38

Check odds @ 2.38

The head-to-head record shows seven matches with an average of 3 goals per game. Moreirense are unbeaten in the last three meetings, winning two. Despite this, recent encounters have been competitive and low scoring, with the last visit ending 1-1. This history provides some support for a tight match but is less decisive than current form and attacking data.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Primeira Liga

Casa Pia3

Played

Moreirense2

Casa Pia0

Avg goals for

Moreirense1

Casa Pia3.3

Avg goals against

Moreirense3

Casa Pia0

Clean sheets

Moreirense0

Best odds for this sectionMoreirense Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts

2.08

Check odds @ 2.08

Load more odds for this section

Moreirense to WinBet365 guide price · model 46%

3.2

Check odds @ 3.2

Casa Pia Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%

1.72

Check odds @ 1.72

Casa Pia to WinBetMGM guide price · model 30%

2.38

Check odds @ 2.38

Season-long stats reveal Casa Pia's offensive struggles with only 0.4 goals per game over 10 matches and a leaky defense conceding 10 goals in three games. Moreirense's attack is modest at 0.8 goals per game, while their defense concedes 1.7 goals per game. These figures underpin the expectation of a low-scoring match, consistent with the Under 2.5 Goals selection.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
17	Moreirense	1	2	0	1	1	-4
18	Casa Pia	0	3	0	0	3	-10

Casa Pia sits at the bottom of the table with 0 points, while Moreirense is just above with 1 point. Both teams face pressure to improve results, but their poor home and away records respectively suggest limited . The standings highlight the stakes but do not indicate a clear offensive breakthrough, supporting a conservative match outlook.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

33%Casa Pia Over 2.5

100%Moreirense Over 2.5

3H2H avg goals

Over the last seven head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game is 3, indicating some historical openness. However, recent matches have been tighter, with Moreirense unbeaten in the last three encounters. The trend suggests a moderate tempo with occasional goal bursts, but current form and attacking limitations point towards fewer goals in this fixture.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

Read full prediction View match centre

Football Stats Hub

Casa Pia v Moreirense Stats

Match Report

Under 2.5 Goals

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Casa Pia

Moreirense

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Football Stats Hub

Casa Pia v Moreirense Stats

Match Report

Under 2.5 Goals

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Casa Pia

Moreirense

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