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Rep. Of Ireland crestRep. Of Ireland

Friendlies | Sat 06 Jun, 00:30

Canada v Rep. Of Ireland Stats

Data last updated: Fri 05 Jun 2026, 05:21 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Canada hosts Ireland in a friendly that serves as a crucial final test before the 2026 World Cup. Canada enters on a seven-match unbeaten run, boasting six clean sheets, reflecting a disciplined defensive structure under Jesse Marsch. Ireland, integrating ten debutants and missing key defenders, rely on the attacking spark of Troy Parrott, who has scored four goals in his last two away games. The tactical battle will focus on Canada's defensive compactness against Ireland's youthful energy and transition threat, with both sides likely cautious given the stakes and squad circumstances.

BT4Y best bet

Canada to Win & Under 2.5 Goals

  • Canada has kept six clean sheets in their last seven matches, showing defensive solidity.
  • Ireland field ten debutants, impacting their attacking cohesion and defensive familiarity.
  • Seven of Canada's last eight matches ended with under 2.5 goals, indicating low-scoring tendencies.
  • Troy Parrott is Ireland's main attacking threat, with four goals in his last two away games.
  • Canada's absence of Alphonso Davies reduces wide attacking threat, favoring a controlled offensive approach.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model recognizes Canada's strong defensive record and Ireland's experimental lineup as key factors favoring a Canadian win with a low-scoring outcome. Canada's six clean sheets in seven matches and Ireland's lack of attacking cohesion due to many debutants support the under 2.5 goals angle. However, the current are shorter than the model's chance, indicating a price-sensitive selection rather than clear value. Reduced staking or waiting for drift is advisable unless team news or line-ups change to improve the .

Canada Defensive Stability6 clean sheets in last 7 matches
Strong positive
Ireland Squad Experimentation10 debutants impacting cohesion
Positive
Low Scoring Trend7 of last 8 Canada matches under 2.5 goals
Strong positive
Price SensitivityModel chance 39% vs market implied 47.6%
Negative

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Canada's disciplined defensive structure and unbeaten run make them the likely winners in this friendly, while Ireland's youthful squad faces challenges in cohesion and attacking fluency. The combination of Canada's solidity and Ireland's experimentation suggests a narrow, low-scoring Canadian victory.

Main risk

The main risk is Ireland's potential to exploit individual moments of transition or defensive lapses from their inexperienced lineup, which could lead to unexpected goals and invalidate the low-scoring prediction.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and tactical balance

“Canada's defensive consistency and Ireland's experimental lineup set the stage for a tightly contested match where Canada's structured approach should prevail.”

Key Data Signals

Canada to Win & Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Canada has kept six clean sheets in their last seven matches, showing defensive solidity.

Ireland field ten debutants, impacting their attacking cohesion and defensive familiarity.

Seven of Canada's last eight matches ended with under 2.5 goals, indicating low-scoring tendencies.

Troy Parrott is Ireland's main attacking threat, with four goals in his last two away games.

What To Watch In The Data

Canada to Win & Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Recent trends show Canada’s matches averaging low goal totals, with seven of eight under 2.5 goals, reinforcing a slow tempo and tight defensive battles.
  • Ireland’s away scoring form is highlighted by Parrott's recent goals, but overall the trend suggests a controlled game with limited scoring chances and a low likelihood of over 2.5 goals.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Canada9
Avg corners for
Rep. Of Ireland9
Canada12
Avg total corners
Rep. Of Ireland10.67
Canada1.33
Avg yellow cards
Rep. Of Ireland0
Canada13
Avg shots
Rep. Of Ireland21
Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 75% vs implied 52% · edge +22.9 pts
1.92
Check odds @ 1.92
Both teams average nine corners per game, indicating balanced territorial exchanges. Canada averages fewer shots but maintains defensive discipline, while Ireland's higher shot volume is tempered by lower shot accuracy and squad inexperience. Discipline is moderate, with Canada averaging 1.33 yellows and Ireland showing low card risk, suggesting a controlled match environment.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Canada1.25
Avg goals scored
Rep. Of Ireland2
Canada0.5
Avg goals conceded
Rep. Of Ireland0
Canada25%
BTTS rate
Rep. Of Ireland0%
Canada25%
Over 2.5 goals
Rep. Of Ireland33%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 58% · edge +8.2 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 68%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 32%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Canada's recent matches have predominantly been low scoring, with seven of eight under 2.5 goals and six clean sheets in seven games. Ireland's attacking threat is limited by their many debutants, reducing the likelihood of both teams scoring and supporting a BTTS No and under 3.5 goals scenario.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickCanada to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 39% vs implied 65% · edge -25.5 pts
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
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Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.92
Check odds @ 1.92
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 32%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Canada Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
The for Canada to Win & Under 2.5 Goals reflect strong in Canada's defensive form and Ireland's unsettled squad. However, the market price is slightly short compared to the model's probability, indicating a price-sensitive pick that requires cautious staking or better to be considered strong value.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Canada

WDDW
Last 52W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 0L
02 Jun 2026H Uzbekistan2-0
01 Apr 2026H Tunisia0-0
28 Mar 2026H Iceland2-2
18 Jan 2026H Guatemala1-0

Rep. Of Ireland

WWD
Last 52W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 0L
28 May 2026H Qatar1-0
16 May 2026H Grenada5-0
31 Mar 2026H FYR Macedonia0-0
Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 68% vs implied 91% · edge -23.1 pts
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
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Canada to WinBetMGM guide price · model 39%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Canada Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Canada's unbeaten streak with six clean sheets highlights their defensive strength and match control, while Ireland's seven-match unbeaten run includes resilience shown in a 1-0 win over Qatar with ten men. However, Ireland's squad rotation and debutants suggest a team still building rhythm, contrasting with Canada's settled structure.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Canada wins
0Draws
0Rep. Of Ireland wins
Market aligned with main pickCanada to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 39% vs implied 65% · edge -25.5 pts
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 32%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
No recent head-to-head data exists between Canada and Ireland, so historical meetings offer little insight. The focus remains on current form, tactical setups, and squad composition to assess the likely match outcome and goal expectations.
Season team stats

Friendlies

Canada4
Played
Rep. Of Ireland3
Canada1.3
Avg goals for
Rep. Of Ireland2
Canada0.5
Avg goals against
Rep. Of Ireland0
Canada3
Clean sheets
Rep. Of Ireland3
Market aligned with main pickCanada to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 39% vs implied 65% · edge -25.5 pts
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
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Canada Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Canada's season stats show a strong defensive profile with low goals conceded (0.5 per game) and a low rate of over 2.5 goals matches (25%), supporting the under 2.5 goals pick. Ireland's higher goals for (2 per game) is offset by their zero goals conceded recently, reflecting a mixed but cautious approach consistent with the expected low-scoring match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

25%Canada Over 2.5
33%Rep. Of Ireland Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Recent trends show Canada’s matches averaging low goal totals, with seven of eight under 2.5 goals, reinforcing a slow tempo and tight defensive battles. Ireland’s away scoring form is highlighted by Parrott's recent goals, but overall the trend suggests a controlled game with limited scoring chances and a low likelihood of over 2.5 goals.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.