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Cadiz crestCadiz
v
Leganes crestLeganes

Segunda División | Sat 03 Oct, 17:30

Cadiz v Leganes Stats

Data last updated: Fri 02 Oct 2026, 10:40 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Segunda División clash features Cadiz hosting Leganes, with Leganes currently positioned 10th and Cadiz struggling near the relegation zone at 20th. Leganes have shown more consistent form, accumulating 11 points compared to Cadiz's 4, and have demonstrated tactical discipline and sharper attacking transitions. Cadiz's defensive vulnerabilities and lower goal output contrast with Leganes' more balanced approach, making this a contest where Leganes' momentum and tactical setup could prove decisive in securing an away victory.

BT4Y best bet

Leganes to Win

  • Leganes hold a 62.5% to win, with strong value at 2.55 .
  • Cadiz have scored only 1 goal in recent matches, while Leganes average 0.8 goals per game.
  • Leganes maintain a solid defensive record, conceding 1.2 goals per match versus Cadiz's 1.6.
  • Leganes generate more shots and shots on target per game, indicating better attacking threat.
  • Cadiz's high BTTS rate contrasts with Leganes' more conservative approach, favoring a controlled away win.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

Leganes are favored due to superior recent form, tactical balance, and efficient attacking metrics. Their higher shot volume and better defensive solidity underpin a 62.5% to win, supported by a significant over the current . Cadiz's struggles in scoring and conceding more goals weaken their position, while Leganes' key players like Ismaël Gharbi and Sule provide creative and finishing quality. The data quality is robust, reinforcing in this selection as a well-founded away win pick.

Model Win Probability62.5%
Strong positive
Value Edge vs Odds55% model chance vs 40% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Form PointsLeganes 7 vs Cadiz 2
Positive
Shots per GameLeganes 13.4 vs Cadiz 9.8
Positive
Defensive Concession RateLeganes 1.2 vs Cadiz 1.6
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Leganes' superior recent form and tactical organization make them the logical choice for victory. Their ability to create more chances and maintain defensive discipline contrasts with Cadiz's struggles, suggesting Leganes can capitalize on this advantage to secure an away win.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Leganes tactical and form advantage

“Leganes combine effective attacking creativity with a disciplined defense, positioning them well to exploit Cadiz's defensive frailties and earn a valuable away victory in this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Leganes to Win evidence

Leganes hold a 62.5% to win, with strong value at 2.55 .

Cadiz have scored only 1 goal in recent matches, while Leganes average 0.8 goals per game.

Leganes maintain a solid defensive record, conceding 1.2 goals per match versus Cadiz's 1.6.

Leganes generate more shots and shots on target per game, indicating better attacking threat.

What To Watch In The Data

Leganes to Win notes

  • In the last two head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored were 2.5 per game, indicating moderately open contests.
  • Cadiz's higher Over 2.5 goals rate (40%) contrasts with Leganes' conservative 20%, suggesting this match could feature controlled tempo with selective attacking bursts, favoring a lower-scoring outcome aligned with Leganes' defensive approach.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Cadiz1
Avg goals scored
Leganes0.8
Cadiz1.6
Avg goals conceded
Leganes1.2
Cadiz80%
BTTS rate
Leganes20%
Cadiz40%
Over 2.5 goals
Leganes20%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 52% · edge +10.9 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 55%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 41%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Cadiz have an 80% BTTS rate and a 40% Over 2.5 goals rate, indicating openness and goal-scoring on both sides. Conversely, Leganes show a more defensive style with only 20% BTTS and 20% Over 2.5 rates, suggesting a lower-scoring, controlled game. This contrast implies a match where Leganes may limit Cadiz's scoring opportunities while capitalizing on chances themselves.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickLeganes to WinBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
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Leganes Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 44%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
The 55% for Leganes to Win sits against roughly 40% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Leganes have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 2 for Cadiz.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Cadiz

DLLLD
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 4D 3L
26 Sep 2026A Tenerife1-1
19 Sep 2026H Girona1-2
12 Sep 2026H Las Palmas0-1
06 Sep 2026A Almeria2-3
30 Aug 2026H Valladolid1-1

Leganes

LWLDW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 2L
28 Sep 2026H Castellón0-2
20 Sep 2026H Granada CF3-2
13 Sep 2026A Tenerife0-2
04 Sep 2026A Las Palmas0-0
29 Aug 2026H Eldense1-0
Market aligned with main pickLeganes to WinBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Leganes Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Leganes have collected 7 points recently, demonstrating more consistent performances compared to Cadiz's 2 points. Leganes' defensive solidity and ability to create chances have translated into positive results, while Cadiz's struggles to convert chances and defensive lapses have hindered their form. This recent momentum favors Leganes in securing a win in this encounter.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Cadiz Over 2.5
20%Leganes Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
In the last two head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored were 2.5 per game, indicating moderately open contests. Cadiz's higher Over 2.5 goals rate (40%) contrasts with Leganes' conservative 20%, suggesting this match could feature controlled tempo with selective attacking bursts, favoring a lower-scoring outcome aligned with Leganes' defensive approach.

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