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Cadiz crestCadiz
v
Girona crestGirona

Segunda División | Sat 19 Sep, 20:00

Cadiz v Girona Stats

Data last updated: Fri 18 Sep 2026, 07:47 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Segunda División clash features Cadiz hosting Girona, with Girona currently positioned 13th and Cadiz struggling near the relegation zone at 19th. Girona have accumulated 7 points from recent matches, showing more attacking intent and efficiency compared to Cadiz's 3 points. Girona's tactical approach emphasizes offensive pressure and shot volume, while Cadiz have struggled to convert chances and maintain defensive solidity. The match carries importance for Girona to consolidate mid-table safety, while Cadiz aim to arrest their poor run. The contest promises a tactical battle with Girona likely to press for the win given their recent form and squad .

BT4Y best bet

Girona to Win

  • Girona ranks 13th with 7 points, Cadiz 19th with 3 points.
  • Girona averages 14.4 shots and 5.2 shots on target per game, outshooting Cadiz's 9.4 and 2.8 respectively.
  • Girona has a 60% Over 2.5 Goals rate and 80% BTTS rate, indicating attacking openness.
  • Cadiz concedes 1.4 goals per game, matching Girona's defensive concession, but struggles offensively.
  • Key Girona players like Y. Stuani provide strong goal threat and shot volume.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

Girona's of 65.4% to win reflects their superior recent form, higher shot volume, and attacking efficiency compared to Cadiz. Girona's offensive players, notably Y. Asprilla with 4 goals and 2.61 shots on target per 90 minutes, create consistent scoring opportunities. Cadiz's low points tally and limited goal production underline their struggles. The price at 1.95 offers positive value given Girona's clear statistical edge in attack and momentum. No data limitations affect in this pick, making Girona a strong candidate for victory based on current form and player impact.

Model Win Probability65.4%
Strong positive
Shot Volume AdvantageGirona 14.4 vs Cadiz 9.4 per game
Strong positive
Key Player Goal ThreatY. Asprilla 4 goals, 2.61 SOT/90
Strong positive
Recent PointsGirona 7 vs Cadiz 3
Positive
Defensive ConcessionBoth concede 1.4 goals per game
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Girona's superior attacking metrics and recent form suggest they have the tactical edge to secure victory over Cadiz. Their ability to generate more shots and involve key players like Asprilla provides a clear offensive advantage, while Cadiz's struggles in scoring and points accumulation reinforce Girona as the likely winner.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Girona's attacking superiority

“Girona's offensive dynamism, led by Asprilla's goal threat and high shot volume, positions them well to exploit Cadiz's defensive vulnerabilities and claim the win in this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Girona to Win evidence

Girona ranks 13th with 7 points, Cadiz 19th with 3 points.

Girona averages 14.4 shots and 5.2 shots on target per game, outshooting Cadiz's 9.4 and 2.8 respectively.

Girona has a 60% Over 2.5 Goals rate and 80% BTTS rate, indicating attacking openness.

Cadiz concedes 1.4 goals per game, matching Girona's defensive concession, but struggles offensively.

What To Watch In The Data

Girona to Win notes

  • In the last nine head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.22, indicating a moderately open scoring trend.
  • Girona's recent Over 2.5 Goals rate of 60% in matches suggests a tempo favoring multiple goals, driven by their attacking style and Cadiz's defensive vulnerabilities.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Cadiz4.8
Avg corners for
Girona4
Cadiz10.2
Avg total corners
Girona7.6
Cadiz3.4
Avg yellow cards
Girona3
Cadiz9.4
Avg shots
Girona14.4
Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · Model 56% vs implied 58% · edge -1.7 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Girona's higher average shots (14.4) and shots on target (5.2) compared to Cadiz (9.4 and 2.8) suggest sustained attacking pressure likely to generate corners and fouls. Cadiz's higher yellow card average (3.4 vs 3) points to a potentially physical contest, with Girona's offensive pressure possibly forcing defensive fouls.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Cadiz1
Avg goals scored
Girona2
Cadiz1.4
Avg goals conceded
Girona1.4
Cadiz60%
BTTS rate
Girona80%
Cadiz40%
Over 2.5 goals
Girona60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 58% · edge +15 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 50%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 32%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2
Check odds @ 2
Girona's 60% Over 2.5 Goals rate and 80% BTTS rate indicate matches involving them tend to be open and high scoring. Cadiz's 40% Over 2.5 rate and 60% BTTS rate suggest a slightly more cautious approach, but the combined data favors a game with multiple goals and both teams scoring.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickGirona to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 51% · edge +14.1 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Girona Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 73%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 56%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 50%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
The of 1.95 for Girona to win represent a positive value opportunity given the model's 65.4% win probability. This pricing reflects market in Girona's form and attacking capabilities, making the selection a sensible choice without major price sensitivity concerns.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Cadiz

LLDDD
Last 50W 3D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 3D 2L
12 Sep 2026H Las Palmas0-1
06 Sep 2026A Almeria2-3
30 Aug 2026H Valladolid1-1
22 Aug 2026A Eldense2-2
15 Aug 2026H Celta de Vigo II0-0

Girona

LWWLD
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 2L
12 Sep 2026H Castellón1-2
05 Sep 2026A Sporting Gijon2-0
29 Aug 2026H Las Palmas5-2
21 Aug 2026A Cordoba1-2
16 Aug 2026H Leganes1-1
Market aligned with main pickGirona to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 51% · edge +14.1 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Girona Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 73%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
Girona's recent accumulation of 7 points compared to Cadiz's 3 points reflects better momentum and . Girona's ability to score more goals and maintain a higher BTTS rate underlines their offensive form, while Cadiz's struggles to convert chances and defend consistently have hampered their results.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Cadiz wins
2Draws
4Girona wins
20 Apr 2024Girona v Cadiz4-1
07 Oct 2023Cadiz v Girona0-1
10 Feb 2023Cadiz v Girona2-0
15 Oct 2022Girona v Cadiz1-1
16 Jan 2021Girona v Cadiz2-0
17 Jul 2020Girona v Cadiz2-1
Market aligned with main pickGirona to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 51% · edge +14.1 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 50%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
The nine previous meetings between Cadiz and Girona have averaged 2.22 goals per game, showing a moderate scoring trend. While the sample is limited, it provides background that matches between these teams tend to be competitive with a reasonable chance of goals, aligning with Girona's attacking profile and Cadiz's defensive challenges.
Season team stats

Segunda División

Cadiz5
Played
Girona5
Cadiz1
Avg goals for
Girona2
Cadiz1.4
Avg goals against
Girona1.4
Cadiz1
Clean sheets
Girona1
Market aligned with main pickGirona to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 51% · edge +14.1 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Girona Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 73%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
Over the season, Girona's attack has been more productive with higher shot and goal rates, supporting their likelihood to win. Both teams concede 1.4 goals per game, but Girona's superior offensive numbers and higher BTTS rate suggest they are better positioned to break down Cadiz's defense.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
13Girona752123
20Cadiz35032-2
Girona's mid-table position at 13th with 7 points contrasts with Cadiz's 19th place and 3 points, indicating Girona face less pressure and have more stability. This standing context supports Girona's and tactical freedom to play for the win, while Cadiz may be under pressure to avoid further slip-ups.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Cadiz Over 2.5
60%Girona Over 2.5
2.22H2H avg goals
In the last nine head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.22, indicating a moderately open scoring trend. Girona's recent Over 2.5 Goals rate of 60% in matches suggests a tempo favoring multiple goals, driven by their attacking style and Cadiz's defensive vulnerabilities.

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Fixture links

Prediction context

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Betting context

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