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Burton Albion crestBurton Albion
v
Mansfield Town crestMansfield Town

League One | Sat 19 Sep, 12:30

Burton Albion v Mansfield Town Stats

Data last updated: Fri 18 Sep 2026, 07:46 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Burton Albion face Mansfield Town in League One on Sat 19 Sep, 12:30. Burton Albion come in with 7 recent points and 1.8 goals per match, while Mansfield Town have 4 points and 1.2 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • At 1.9, Over 2.5 Goals implies roughly 53%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 68%.
  • The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Burton Albion and 60% for Mansfield Town, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
  • Burton Albion are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.8 goals per match, with Mansfield Town at 1.2.
  • BTTS rates of 80% for Burton Albion and 40% for Mansfield Town show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 68% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 53% implied by the current price. The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Burton Albion and 60% for Mansfield Town, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Model chance vs price68% model chance against roughly 53% implied
Strong positive
The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Burton Albion.Visible data support
Positive
Burton Albion are carrying more of the scoring load at.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Over 2.5 Goals is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Burton Albion and 60% for Mansfield Town, so the goals angle is not just a price call. A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Burton Albion and 60% for Mansfield Town, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Burton Albion are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.8 goals per match, with Mansfield Town at 1.2.

BTTS rates of 80% for Burton Albion and 40% for Mansfield Town show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Use the last-five and H2H goal samples to judge whether Over 2.5 has a tempo route, not just a historical average.
  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Burton Albion1.8
Avg goals scored
Mansfield Town1.2
Burton Albion1.8
Avg goals conceded
Mansfield Town2
Burton Albion80%
BTTS rate
Mansfield Town40%
Burton Albion100%
Over 2.5 goals
Mansfield Town60%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 68% vs implied 53% · edge +15 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 46%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 46%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 34%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33

Continue the research

Useful next reads

League One hubcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 68% vs implied 53% · edge +15 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Load more odds for this section
Burton Albion Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Burton Albion to WinBet365 guide price · model 54%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 46%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Mansfield Town Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2
Check odds @ 2
DrawBetfred guide price · model 24%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Mansfield Town to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Over 2.5 Goals is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Burton Albion3.5
Avg corners for
Mansfield Town2.8
Burton Albion8.75
Avg total corners
Mansfield Town8.4
Burton Albion1.5
Avg yellow cards
Mansfield Town1.8
Burton Albion11.75
Avg shots
Mansfield Town11.4
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 47% vs implied 55% · edge -8.1 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Burton Albion

LDWLW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 2L
12 Sep 2026A Oxford United0-3
05 Sep 2026H Cambridge United2-2
02 Sep 2026H AFC Wimbledon4-1
29 Aug 2026A Notts County1-2
22 Aug 2026A Leicester2-1

Mansfield Town

DLLWL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 3L
12 Sep 2026H Huddersfield0-0
05 Sep 2026A Bradford0-1
02 Sep 2026A Reading0-5
30 Aug 2026H Luton5-2
22 Aug 2026A Peterborough1-2
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetUK guide price · Model 84% vs implied 69% · edge +15 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Load more odds for this section
Burton Albion Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Burton Albion to WinBet365 guide price · model 54%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Mansfield Town Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2
Check odds @ 2
DrawBetfred guide price · model 24%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Mansfield Town to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

5Burton Albion wins
4Draws
1Mansfield Town wins
06 Apr 2026Mansfield Town v Burton Albion0-0
02 Aug 2025Burton Albion v Mansfield Town2-1
01 Mar 2025Burton Albion v Mansfield Town1-1
17 Aug 2024Mansfield Town v Burton Albion3-3
21 Nov 2023Burton Albion v Mansfield Town2-1
12 Nov 2019Burton Albion v Mansfield Town1-2
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 68% vs implied 53% · edge +15 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Load more odds for this section
Burton Albion to WinBet365 guide price · model 54%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 46%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
DrawBetfred guide price · model 24%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Mansfield Town to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
The head-to-head sample gives context for Over 2.5 Goals, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

League One

Burton Albion6
Played
Mansfield Town6
Burton Albion1.7
Avg goals for
Mansfield Town1.3
Burton Albion1.7
Avg goals against
Mansfield Town1.8
Burton Albion0
Clean sheets
Mansfield Town1
Best odds for this sectionBurton Albion Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 56% · edge +14.1 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Burton Albion to WinBet365 guide price · model 54%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Mansfield Town Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2
Check odds @ 2
Mansfield Town to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Season data supports Burton Albion Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
11Burton Albion862220
17Mansfield Town76213-3
Burton Albion sit in position 11, while Mansfield Town sit in position 17, so table pressure belongs in the Over 2.5 Goals assessment.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Burton Albion Over 2.5
60%Mansfield Town Over 2.5
2.4H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Burton Albion sit at 100% and Mansfield Town sit at 60% with the H2H average at 2.4 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

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