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Burton Albion crestBurton Albion
v
Mansfield Town crestMansfield Town

League One | Sat 19 Sep, 12:30

Burton Albion v Mansfield Town Stats

Data last updated: Tue 13 Oct 2026, 18:12 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Burton Albion face Mansfield Town in League One on Sat 19 Sep, 12:30. Mansfield have lost all three of their League One away matches this season, conceding eight goals and scoring just once. Burton Albion look stronger on recent form, while Mansfield Town remain vulnerable after weaker results.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2

  • At 20/23, Over 2 implies roughly 54%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 69%.
  • The combined goal profile supports Over 2.5 Goals as a solid pick.
  • The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Burton Albion and 60% for Mansfield Town, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
  • Burton Albion are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.8 goals per match, with Mansfield Town at 1.2.
  • BTTS rates of 80% for Burton Albion and 40% for Mansfield Town show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 69% for Over 2 sits against roughly 54% implied by the current price. The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Burton Albion and 60% for Mansfield Town, so the goals angle is not just a price call. The combined goal profile supports Over 2.5 Goals as a solid pick.

Model chance vs price69% model chance against roughly 54% implied
Strong positive
The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Burton Albion.Visible data support
Positive
Burton Albion are carrying more of the scoring load at.Visible data support
Positive
The combined goal profile supports Over 2.5 Goals as.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Over that scoring level is the preferred angle because the combined goal profile supports Over 2.5 Goals as a solid pick. The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Burton Albion and 60% for Mansfield Town, so the goals angle is not just a price call. Burton have shown they can score at a useful rate, but opponents have rarely needed much encouragement to stay involved.

Main risk

Burton have shown they can score at a useful rate, but opponents have rarely needed much encouragement to stay involved.

Key Data Signals

Over 2 evidence

The combined goal profile supports Over 2.5 Goals as a solid pick.

The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Burton Albion and 60% for Mansfield Town, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Burton Albion are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.8 goals per match, with Mansfield Town at 1.2.

BTTS rates of 80% for Burton Albion and 40% for Mansfield Town show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2 notes

  • Use the last-five and H2H goal samples to judge whether Over 2.5 has a tempo route, not just a historical average.
  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Burton Albion1.8
Avg goals scored
Mansfield Town1.2
Burton Albion1.8
Avg goals conceded
Mansfield Town2
Burton Albion80%
BTTS rate
Mansfield Town40%
Burton Albion100%
Over 2.5 goals
Mansfield Town60%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 69% vs implied 54% · edge +15 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95

Continue the research

Useful next reads

League One hubrelated match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 69% vs implied 54% · edge +15 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Load more odds for this section
Burton Albion Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Burton Albion to WinBet365 guide price · model 59%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Mansfield Town Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
DrawBetfred guide price · model 24%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Over 2.5 Goals is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Burton Albion

LDWLW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 2L
12 Sep 2026A Oxford United0-3
05 Sep 2026H Cambridge United2-2
02 Sep 2026H AFC Wimbledon4-1
29 Aug 2026A Notts County1-2
22 Aug 2026A Leicester2-1

Mansfield Town

DLLWL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 3L
12 Sep 2026H Huddersfield0-0
05 Sep 2026A Bradford0-1
02 Sep 2026A Reading0-5
30 Aug 2026H Luton5-2
22 Aug 2026A Peterborough1-2
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetUK guide price · Model 86% vs implied 71% · edge +14.1 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Load more odds for this section
Burton Albion Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Burton Albion to WinBet365 guide price · model 59%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Mansfield Town Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2
Check odds @ 2
DrawBetfred guide price · model 24%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Mansfield Town to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Burton Albion Over 2.5
60%Mansfield Town Over 2.5
2.4H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Burton Albion sit at 100% and Mansfield Town sit at 60% with the H2H average at 2.4 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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