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Burnley crestBurnley
v
Middlesbrough crestMiddlesbrough

Championship | Wed 02 Sep, 20:00

Burnley v Middlesbrough Stats

Data last updated: Tue 01 Sep 2026, 07:40 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Burnley face Middlesbrough in Championship on Wed 02 Sep, 20:00. Despite Burnley's scoring consistency, their defensive leakiness and Middlesbrough's attacking momentum suggest both teams will score in this fixture, supporting the BTTS YES selection. Burnley vs Middlesbrough: Clarets’ defensive problems face an in-form Boro attack.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams To Score YES

  • At 17/1, Both Teams To Score YES implies roughly 6%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 21%.
  • Selection: Both Teams To Score YES.
  • Burnley show a 100% BTTS rate and Middlesbrough show a 100% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
  • Burnley average 1.33 goals scored and Middlesbrough average 2, so both attacking contributions need separating.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 21% for Both Teams To Score YES sits against roughly 6% implied by the current price. Burnley show a 100% BTTS rate and Middlesbrough show a 100% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Selection: Both Teams To Score YES.

Model chance vs price21% model chance against roughly 6% implied
Strong positive
Burnley show a 100% BTTS rate and Middlesbrough show a.Visible data support
Positive
Burnley average 1.33 goals scored and Middlesbrough average 2, so.Visible data support
Positive
Selection: Both Teams To Score YES.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Both Teams To Score is the preferred angle because selection: Both Teams To Score YES. Burnley show a that shared-scoring rate rate and Middlesbrough show a 100% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. The visitors are not flawless — Blackburn beat them 2-1 and clean sheets have been scarce — but their early-season efficiency looks particularly threatening against a Burnley side whose problems have gone.

Main risk

The visitors are not flawless — Blackburn beat them 2-1 and clean sheets have been scarce — but their early-season efficiency looks particularly threatening against a Burnley side whose problems have gone.

Key Data Signals

Both Teams To Score YES evidence

Selection: Both Teams To Score YES.

Burnley show a 100% BTTS rate and Middlesbrough show a 100% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.

Burnley average 1.33 goals scored and Middlesbrough average 2, so both attacking contributions need separating.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams To Score YES notes

  • Use shots on target to decide whether attacking involvement is shared or one-sided.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Burnley1.33
Avg goals scored
Middlesbrough2
Burnley3
Avg goals conceded
Middlesbrough1.33
Burnley100%
BTTS rate
Middlesbrough100%
Burnley100%
Over 2.5 goals
Middlesbrough100%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 62% · edge +14.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 88%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 48%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 26%
2
Check odds @ 2
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 62% · edge +14.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
Middlesbrough Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 71%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Middlesbrough to WinBet365 guide price · model 57%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 69%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Burnley Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Burnley to WinBetUK guide price · model 27%
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
BTTS Yes is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more Championship analysisfull betting preview for Burnley v Middlesbroughcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Burnley5
Avg corners for
Middlesbrough7.33
Burnley9
Avg total corners
Middlesbrough11.67
Burnley2
Avg yellow cards
Middlesbrough0.33
Burnley15
Avg shots
Middlesbrough20
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 58% · edge +5.6 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 69%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 4.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 46%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Burnley

LLD
Last 50W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 2L
29 Aug 2026A Norwich1-4
23 Aug 2026A West Brom1-3
16 Aug 2026H West Ham2-2

Middlesbrough

WLW
Last 52W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 1L
29 Aug 2026H West Brom3-1
22 Aug 2026A Blackburn1-2
15 Aug 2026H Lincoln2-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 84% vs implied 71% · edge +12.6 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
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Middlesbrough Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 71%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Middlesbrough to WinBet365 guide price · model 57%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Burnley Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Burnley to WinBetUK guide price · model 27%
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 48%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
DrawBet365 guide price · model 19%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4Burnley wins
4Draws
2Middlesbrough wins
29 Dec 2024Middlesbrough v Burnley0-0
06 Dec 2024Burnley v Middlesbrough1-1
07 Apr 2023Middlesbrough v Burnley1-2
17 Dec 2022Burnley v Middlesbrough3-1
08 Apr 2017Middlesbrough v Burnley0-0
26 Dec 2016Burnley v Middlesbrough1-0
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 62% · edge +14.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Middlesbrough to WinBet365 guide price · model 57%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Burnley to WinBetUK guide price · model 27%
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
DrawBet365 guide price · model 19%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
The head-to-head sample gives context for BTTS Yes, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Championship

Burnley3
Played
Middlesbrough3
Burnley1.3
Avg goals for
Middlesbrough2
Burnley3
Avg goals against
Middlesbrough1.3
Burnley0
Clean sheets
Middlesbrough0
Best odds for this sectionMiddlesbrough Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Load more odds for this section
Middlesbrough to WinBet365 guide price · model 57%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Burnley Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Burnley to WinBetUK guide price · model 27%
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
Season data supports Middlesbrough Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
5Middlesbrough632012
22Burnley13012-5
Burnley sit in position 22, while Middlesbrough sit in position 5, so table pressure belongs in the Both Teams To Score YES assessment.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Burnley Over 2.5
100%Middlesbrough Over 2.5
1.7H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Burnley sit at 100% and Middlesbrough sit at 100% with the H2H average at 1.7 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Burnley v Middlesbrough prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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Competition and hubs

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Next step

Betting context

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