Football Stats Hub

Burgos crestBurgos
v
Eldense crestEldense

Segunda División | Sun 27 Sep, 17:30

Burgos v Eldense Stats

Data last updated: Sat 26 Sep 2026, 08:00 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Burgos hosts Eldense in a Segunda División clash where Burgos currently sit 6th with 11 points, showing stronger recent form compared to Eldense's 17th place and 5 points. Burgos have demonstrated a more potent attack and better defensive resilience, making them favorites in this fixture. Eldense's struggles in scoring and lower points tally add to the uphill challenge they face away from home. The match promises tactical battles with Burgos aiming to capitalize on home advantage and momentum.

BT4Y best bet

Burgos to Win

  • Burgos hold a 60.1% to win, priced attractively at 1.85 .
  • Burgos average 1.4 goals per game and concede 1, showing balanced performance.
  • Eldense have scored only 0.8 goals per game and conceded 1, reflecting offensive struggles.
  • Recent form favors Burgos with 8 points from last matches versus Eldense's 5 points.
  • Burgos rank 6th in the league, significantly above Eldense's 17th position.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Burgos to win with a 60.1% chance, supported by their superior recent form, higher league standing, and better goal-scoring record. Burgos' balanced attack and defense contrast with Eldense's lower scoring and points accumulation. The of 1.85 offer positive value with a 6% edge over the implied market chance. No data limitations affect , making this a solid pick based on current season performance and tactical context.

Model Chance60.1% model chance vs 54.1% implied (+6 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance60.1% model chance vs 54.1% implied (+6 pts)
Positive
Value Edge60.1% model chance vs 54.1% implied (+6 pts)
Strong positive
Recent FormBurgos outperform Eldense
Positive
League PositionBurgos 6th vs Eldense 17th
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Burgos' tactical discipline and home advantage position them well to secure victory against a struggling Eldense side. Their consistent scoring and defensive solidity provide a strong foundation, while Eldense's lower form and goal output make them unlikely to challenge effectively in this fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Burgos' blend of steady defense and efficient attack, combined with Eldense's offensive limitations, makes the home win a logical and data-backed choice for this match.”

Key Data Signals

Burgos to Win evidence

Burgos hold a 60.1% to win, priced attractively at 1.85 .

Burgos average 1.4 goals per game and concede 1, showing balanced performance.

Eldense have scored only 0.8 goals per game and conceded 1, reflecting offensive struggles.

Recent form favors Burgos with 8 points from last matches versus Eldense's 5 points.

What To Watch In The Data

Burgos to Win notes

  • In the last five matches, the Over 2.5 Goals rate for Burgos is 60%, suggesting a tendency for higher-scoring games.
  • The average goals in their head-to-head meetings stand at 1.4, indicating moderately open games but with Burgos likely to provide most of the attacking impetus.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Burgos1.4
Avg goals scored
Eldense0.8
Burgos1
Avg goals conceded
Eldense1
Burgos60%
BTTS rate
Eldense40%
Burgos60%
Over 2.5 goals
Eldense40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 60% vs implied 52% · edge +7.6 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 57%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 47%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 44%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Burgos average 1.4 goals per game with a 60% over 2.5 goals rate and 60% BTTS rate, indicating a tendency for open games. Eldense's lower scoring and BTTS rates (0.8 goals, 40%) suggest they are less likely to contribute goals, pointing to a moderate chance of goals but with Burgos as the main source.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

corners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBurgos to WinBetUK guide price · Model 60% vs implied 54% · edge +6 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Burgos Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 47%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
The 60.1% for Burgos to Win sits against roughly 54.1% implied by the current price (+6 pts). Burgos have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 5 for Eldense.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Burgos

WWDDL
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 1L
20 Sep 2026A Las Palmas2-1
11 Sep 2026H AD Ceuta FC3-1
06 Sep 2026A Oviedo0-0
31 Aug 2026H Real Sociedad II2-2
23 Aug 2026A Sporting Gijon0-1

Eldense

LWDLD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 3L
19 Sep 2026H Eibar1-2
13 Sep 2026A Sporting Gijon1-0
05 Sep 2026H Mallorca0-0
29 Aug 2026A Leganes0-1
22 Aug 2026H Cadiz2-2
Market aligned with main pickBurgos to WinBetUK guide price · Model 60% vs implied 54% · edge +6 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 85%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Burgos Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Burgos have collected 8 points recently, showing better momentum than Eldense's 5 points. This form difference aligns with Burgos' higher league standing and goal output, reinforcing their status as favorites in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Burgos Over 2.5
40%Eldense Over 2.5
1.4H2H avg goals
In the last five matches, the Over 2.5 Goals rate for Burgos is 60%, suggesting a tendency for higher-scoring games. The average goals in their head-to-head meetings stand at 1.4, indicating moderately open games but with Burgos likely to provide most of the attacking impetus.

Loading deeper match data…