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Brondby crestBrondby
v
Lyngby crestLyngby

Superliga | Sun 11 Oct, 15:00

Brondby v Lyngby Stats

Data last updated: Sat 10 Oct 2026, 09:00 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Brondby hosts Lyngby in a Danish Superliga clash where form and tactical nuances could tip the balance. Brondby, positioned fifth, have struggled defensively, conceding 2.4 goals per game, while Lyngby, tenth in the table, have shown resilience with a tighter defense allowing 1.6 goals on average. Lyngby's recent away performances and ability to capitalize on counterattacks present a credible threat against Brondby's inconsistent backline. Both teams have similar goal-scoring records, but Lyngby's tactical discipline and recent momentum suggest they can secure a valuable win in this contest.

BT4Y best bet

Lyngby to Win

  • Lyngby holds a strong at 53.4% to win with positive value at 4.5 .
  • Brondby concedes an average of 2.4 goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.
  • Lyngby’s defensive record is better, conceding 1.6 goals per game, supporting an away win chance.
  • Key Lyngby attackers like Í. Þorvaldsson and S. Colyn show strong goal threat and shot volume.
  • Recent form favors Lyngby with 5 points from last matches compared to Brondby’s 3 points.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Lyngby to win due to their superior defensive record and efficient attacking players like Í. Þorvaldsson, who averages nearly one shot on target per 90 minutes. Despite being underdogs in the market, Lyngby’s recent form and tactical discipline create a strong chance against a defensively leaky Brondby side. The positive of 31.2% at 4.5 highlights this as a compelling selection. No data limitations affect , making this a solid data-driven pick.

Model Win Probability53.4%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance37.2% model chance vs 22.2% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge37.2% model chance vs 22.2% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Brondby Defensive Record2.4 goals conceded per game
Positive
Lyngby Defensive Record1.6 goals conceded per game
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Lyngy’s disciplined defensive setup combined with key attacking threats like Í. Þorvaldsson makes them a strong candidate for victory despite their lower league position. Brondby’s defensive frailties and recent form struggles increase the chance that Lyngby can capitalize and secure an upset win.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Lyngby’s tactical resilience and attacking efficiency against Brondby’s porous defense create a compelling case for an away win in this Superliga fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Lyngby to Win evidence

Lyngby holds a strong at 53.4% to win with positive value at 4.5 .

Brondby concedes an average of 2.4 goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.

Lyngby’s defensive record is better, conceding 1.6 goals per game, supporting an away win chance.

Key Lyngby attackers like Í. Þorvaldsson and S. Colyn show strong goal threat and shot volume.

What To Watch In The Data

Lyngby to Win notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.5, indicating a moderately high-scoring trend.
  • However, Lyngby’s defensive discipline and Brondby’s recent defensive struggles suggest this match could see goals but with Lyngy’s chances to win intact through counterattacks and tactical control.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Brondby1
Avg goals scored
Lyngby1
Brondby2.4
Avg goals conceded
Lyngby1.6
Brondby60%
BTTS rate
Lyngby60%
Brondby80%
Over 2.5 goals
Lyngby40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 73% vs implied 64% · edge +9.6 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 80%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 44%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 31%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Both teams have moderate scoring rates with Brondby averaging 1 goal per game and Lyngby similarly scoring 1 goal per game. Both teams to score rate stands at 60%, indicating a balanced likelihood of goals from both sides. This suggests a competitive match with goal-scoring opportunities but not necessarily a high-scoring game.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickLyngby to WinBet365 guide price · Model 37% vs implied 22% · edge +15 pts
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 73%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Lyngby Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 51%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
The 37.2% for Lyngby to Win sits against roughly 22.2% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Lyngby have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 3 for Brondby.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Brondby

LLLLW
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 4L
20 Sep 2026H FC Copenhagen0-1
14 Sep 2026A FC Midtjylland1-4
06 Sep 2026H Randers FC0-3
30 Aug 2026A FC Nordsjaelland1-3
24 Aug 2026H Silkeborg3-1

Lyngby

LDWDL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 4D 4L
18 Sep 2026H Silkeborg0-4
13 Sep 2026H Sonderjyske1-1
04 Sep 2026A Viborg2-0
30 Aug 2026H Odense1-1
23 Aug 2026A AC Horsens1-2
Market aligned with main pickLyngby to WinBet365 guide price · Model 37% vs implied 22% · edge +15 pts
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Lyngby Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 51%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Lyngby has collected 5 points recently compared to Brondby’s 3, showing better momentum. Brondby’s defense has conceded more goals in recent matches, while Lyngby’s tighter defensive performances have helped secure valuable points. This recent form trend supports Lyngy’s chances to capitalize on Brondby’s vulnerabilities.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Brondby Over 2.5
40%Lyngby Over 2.5
3.5H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.5, indicating a moderately high-scoring trend. However, Lyngby’s defensive discipline and Brondby’s recent defensive struggles suggest this match could see goals but with Lyngy’s chances to win intact through counterattacks and tactical control.

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