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Premier League | Sat 09 May, 15:00

Brighton v Wolves Stats

Data last updated: Sat 18 Jul 2026, 19:38 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Brighton face Wolves in Premier League on Sat 09 May, 15:00. Wolves are still without a Premier League away victory this season, collecting just five points from 17 road matches. Brighton's strong recent record at the Amex compared to Wolves' winless away form makes a home win the most statistical probability.

BT4Y best bet

Brighton Win

  • At 4/6, Brighton Win implies roughly 60%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 74%.
  • Wolves have lost 23 times this season and concede frequently, while Brighton's attacking rotations under Hürzeler have become far more clinical against struggling defensive.
  • Brighton have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 2 for Wolves.
  • Brighton have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Brighton Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Brighton sit 8 in the table, while Wolves sit 20, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 74% for Brighton Win sits against roughly 60% implied by the current price. Brighton have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 2 for Wolves. Wolves have lost 23 times this season and concede frequently, while Brighton's attacking rotations under Hürzeler have become far more clinical against struggling defensive.

Model chance vs price74% model chance against roughly 60% implied
Positive
Brighton have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points.Visible data support
Positive
Brighton have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Wolves have lost 23 times this season and concede.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Brighton Win is the preferred angle because wolves have lost 23 times this season and concede frequently, while Brighton's attacking rotations under Hürzeler have become far more clinical against struggling defensive units. Brighton have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 2 for Wolves. The defeat at Newcastle last weekend halted momentum, but it did not destroy belief.

Main risk

The defeat at Newcastle last weekend halted momentum, but it did not destroy belief.

Key Data Signals

Brighton Win evidence

Wolves have lost 23 times this season and concede frequently, while Brighton's attacking rotations under Hürzeler have become.

Brighton have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 2 for Wolves.

Brighton have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Brighton Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Brighton sit 8 in the table, while Wolves sit 20, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Brighton Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Brighton2
    Avg goals scored
    Wolves0.6
    Brighton1.2
    Avg goals conceded
    Wolves2.2
    Brighton60%
    BTTS rate
    Wolves40%
    Brighton80%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Wolves60%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 51% · edge +15.4 pts
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 82%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 64%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 46%
    2.3
    Check odds @ 2.3
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 40%
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickBrighton to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 80% · edge -6 pts
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Load more odds for this section
    Brighton Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
    1.9
    Check odds @ 1.9
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 65%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 64%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Brighton to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    Premier League hubrelated match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Brighton5.4
    Avg corners for
    Wolves4.8
    Brighton11.4
    Avg total corners
    Wolves8.6
    Brighton2.2
    Avg yellow cards
    Wolves2
    Brighton13.4
    Avg shots
    Wolves13
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 69% vs implied 56% · edge +13.4 pts
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 58%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 65%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Brighton

    LWDWW
    Last 53W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 106W 1D 3L
    02 May 2026A Newcastle1-3
    21 Apr 2026H Chelsea3-0
    18 Apr 2026A Tottenham2-2
    11 Apr 2026A Burnley2-0
    21 Mar 2026H Liverpool2-1

    Wolves

    DLLLD
    Last 50W 2D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 4D 4L
    02 May 2026H Sunderland1-1
    25 Apr 2026H Tottenham0-1
    18 Apr 2026A Leeds0-3
    10 Apr 2026A West Ham0-4
    16 Mar 2026A Brentford2-2
    Market aligned with main pickBrighton to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 80% · edge -6 pts
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Load more odds for this section
    Brighton Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
    1.9
    Check odds @ 1.9
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
    1.04
    Check odds @ 1.04
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    6Brighton wins
    3Draws
    1Wolves wins
    05 Oct 2025Wolves v Brighton1-1
    10 May 2025Wolves v Brighton0-2
    26 Oct 2024Brighton v Wolves2-2
    18 Sep 2024Brighton v Wolves3-2
    28 Feb 2024Wolves v Brighton1-0
    22 Jan 2024Brighton v Wolves0-0
    Market aligned with main pickBrighton to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 80% · edge -6 pts
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 64%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Brighton to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    Premier League

    Brighton38
    Played
    Wolves38
    Brighton1.4
    Avg goals for
    Wolves0.7
    Brighton1.2
    Avg goals against
    Wolves1.8
    Brighton10
    Clean sheets
    Wolves4
    Market aligned with main pickBrighton to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 80% · edge -6 pts
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Load more odds for this section
    Brighton Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
    1.9
    Check odds @ 1.9
    Season data supports Brighton to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    8Brighton53381411136
    20Wolves203831124-41
    Brighton sit in position 8, while Wolves sit in position 20, so table pressure belongs in the Brighton Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    80%Brighton Over 2.5
    60%Wolves Over 2.5
    3.3H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Brighton sit at 80% and Wolves sit at 60% with the H2H average at 3.3 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Brighton v Wolves prediction

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    Betting context

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