Brazil

Japan

World Cup | Mon 29 Jun, 18:00

Brazil v Japan Stats

Data last updated: Wed 12 Aug 2026, 23:19 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Brazil face Japan in World Cup on Mon 29 Jun, 18:00. Group-stage control no longer matters as much as knockout composure. Vinicius Junior is in sensational form, scoring four goals in three World Cup matches alongside an assist.

BT4Y best bet

In the mix naturally adds another layer of attention around Brazil, while Vinicius Jr has been the standout attacking figure of their World Cup so far

At 7/1, In the mix naturally adds another layer of attention around Brazil, while Vinicius Jr has been the standout attacking figure of their World Cup so far implies roughly 13%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 28%.
Japan's high defensive strain will struggle to neutralise his direct pace over ninety minutes.
Brazil have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 5 for Japan.
Brazil have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.33 conceded per match, which helps the In the mix naturally adds another layer of attention around Brazil, while Vinicius Jr has been the standout attacking figure.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 28% for In the mix naturally adds another layer of attention around Brazil, while Vinicius Jr has been the standout attacking figure of their World Cup so far sits against roughly 13% implied by the current price. Brazil have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 5 for Japan. Japan's high defensive strain will struggle to neutralise his direct pace over ninety minutes.

Model chance vs price28% model chance against roughly 13% implied

Strong positive

Brazil have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points.Visible data support

Positive

Brazil have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.33 conceded per.Visible data support

Positive

Japan's high defensive strain will struggle to neutralise his.Article support

Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Brazil Win is the preferred angle because japan's high defensive strain will struggle to neutralise his direct pace over ninety minutes. Brazil have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 5 for Japan. However, Brazil's elite attacking depth and individual spark should see them navigate this test by a narrow single-goal margin.

Main risk

However, Brazil's elite attacking depth and individual spark should see them navigate this test by a narrow single-goal margin.

Key Data Signals

In the mix naturally adds another layer of attention around Brazil, while Vinicius Jr has been the standout attacking figure of their World Cup so far evidence

Japan's high defensive strain will struggle to neutralise his direct pace over ninety minutes.

Brazil have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 5 for Japan.

Brazil have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.33 conceded per match, which helps the Brazil Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

In the mix naturally adds another layer of attention around Brazil, while Vinicius Jr has been the standout attacking figure of their World Cup so far notes

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Brazil5.33

Avg corners for

Japan3.67

Brazil9.67

Avg total corners

Japan9

Brazil1.67

Avg yellow cards

Japan0.33

Brazil13.67

Avg shots

Japan9.67

Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 51% vs implied 44% · edge +6.6 pts

2.25

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Over 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 52%

2.1

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Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 58%

1.67

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Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price

2.75

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Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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Useful next reads

World Cup fixtures and predictions Brazil v Japan prediction corners trends hub football cards angles player stats betting angles football stats hub football hub football predictions hub best bets research acca fixture filtering

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Brazil2.33

Avg goals scored

Japan2.33

Brazil0.33

Avg goals conceded

Japan1

Brazil33%

BTTS rate

Japan67%

Brazil67%

Over 2.5 goals

Japan67%

Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 86% vs implied 74% · edge +12.9 pts

1.36

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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 65%

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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 63%

2.1

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Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 40%

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BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%

1.75

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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 36%

1.73

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Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBrazil to WinBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 59% · edge -4 pts

1.7

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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 65%

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Brazil Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 64%

2.05

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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 63%

2.1

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Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 51%

2.25

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Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 58%

1.67

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Brazil to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Brazil

WWD

Last 52W 1D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 102W 1D 0L

24 Jun 2026A Scotland3-0

20 Jun 2026H Haiti3-0

13 Jun 2026H Morocco1-1

Japan

DWD

Last 51W 2D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 101W 2D 0L

26 Jun 2026H Sweden1-1

21 Jun 2026A Tunisia4-0

14 Jun 2026A Netherlands2-2

Market aligned with main pickBrazil to WinBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 59% · edge -4 pts

1.7

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Brazil Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 64%

2.05

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Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 81%

1.17

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Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Brazil wins

0Draws

1Japan wins

14 Oct 2025Japan v Brazil3-2

06 Jun 2022Japan v Brazil0-1

10 Nov 2017Japan v Brazil1-3

15 Jun 2013Brazil v Japan3-0

Market aligned with main pickBrazil to WinBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 59% · edge -4 pts

1.7

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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 65%

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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 63%

2.1

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The head-to-head sample gives context for Brazil to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.

Season team stats

World Cup

Brazil5

Played

Japan4

Brazil2

Avg goals for

Japan2

Brazil0.8

Avg goals against

Japan1.3

Brazil2

Clean sheets

Japan1

Market aligned with main pickBrazil to WinBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 59% · edge -4 pts

1.7

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Brazil Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 64%

2.05

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Season data supports Brazil to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
1	Brazil	7	3	2	1	0	6
2	Japan	5	3	1	2	0	4

World Cup standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

67%Brazil Over 2.5

67%Japan Over 2.5

3.25H2H avg goals

The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Brazil sit at 67% and Japan sit at 67% with the H2H average at 3.25 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

Read full prediction View match centre

Football Stats Hub

Brazil v Japan Stats

Match Report

In the mix naturally adds another layer of attention around Brazil, while Vinicius Jr has been the standout attacking figure of their World Cup so far

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

Brazil

Japan

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Football Stats Hub

Brazil v Japan Stats

Match Report

In the mix naturally adds another layer of attention around Brazil, while Vinicius Jr has been the standout attacking figure of their World Cup so far

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

Brazil

Japan

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Prediction context

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