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Botafogo crestBotafogo
v
Vitoria crestVitoria

Serie A | Thu 23 Jul, 23:30

Botafogo v Vitoria Stats

Data last updated: Tue 29 Sep 2026, 09:11 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Botafogo face Vitoria in Serie A on Thu 23 Jul, 23:30. Botafogo lead the league in goals scored but have defensive vulnerabilities, conceding in every recent match. Vitória bring strong attacking momentum and have scored in 11 consecutive away games, making both teams scoring a consistent pattern in their encounters.

BT4Y best bet

Dom, or Botafogo’s current tendency towards open football finally overwhelms the historical pattern

  • At 13/2, Dom, or Botafogo’s current tendency towards open football finally overwhelms the historical pattern implies roughly 13%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 28%.
  • Both teams have scored in Botafogo’s last 14 Brasileiro Série A matches, underlining how consistently their attacking ambition is accompanied by defensive exposure.
  • Botafogo have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 7 for Vitoria.
  • Botafogo have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Dom, or Botafogo’s current tendency towards open football finally overwhelms the historical pattern angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Botafogo sit 12 in the table, while Vitoria sit 13, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 28% for Dom, or Botafogo’s current tendency towards open football finally overwhelms the historical pattern sits against roughly 13% implied by the current price. Botafogo have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 7 for Vitoria. Both teams have scored in Botafogo’s last 14 Brasileiro Série A matches, underlining how consistently their attacking ambition is accompanied by defensive exposure.

Model chance vs price28% model chance against roughly 13% implied
Strong positive
Botafogo have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points.Visible data support
Positive
Botafogo have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Both teams have scored in Botafogo’s last 14 Brasileiro.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Botafogo Win is the preferred angle because both teams have scored in Botafogo’s last 14 Brasileiro Série A matches, underlining how consistently their attacking ambition is accompanied by defensive exposure. Botafogo have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 7 for Vitoria. Botafogo carry the stronger scoring threat, but Vitoria must contribute for BTTS to land.

Main risk

Botafogo carry the stronger scoring threat, but Vitoria must contribute for BTTS to land.

Key Data Signals

Dom, or Botafogo’s current tendency towards open football finally overwhelms the historical pattern evidence

Both teams have scored in Botafogo’s last 14 Brasileiro Série A matches, underlining how consistently their attacking ambition.

Botafogo have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 7 for Vitoria.

Botafogo have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Botafogo Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Botafogo sit 12 in the table, while Vitoria sit 13, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Dom, or Botafogo’s current tendency towards open football finally overwhelms the historical pattern notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Botafogo1.6
    Avg goals scored
    Vitoria1.2
    Botafogo1.2
    Avg goals conceded
    Vitoria1.4
    Botafogo100%
    BTTS rate
    Vitoria40%
    Botafogo60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Vitoria40%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
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    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 54%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 68%
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 32%
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickBotafogo to WinBetUK guide price · Model 51% vs implied 57% · edge -5.9 pts
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
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    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 72%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 61%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Botafogo Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 61%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Botafogo to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Botafogo

    WLDWD
    Last 52W 2D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 4D 2L
    16 Jul 2026H Santos2-1
    30 May 2026A Bahia1-2
    23 May 2026A Sao Paulo1-1
    17 May 2026H Corinthians3-1
    10 May 2026A Atletico-MG1-1

    Vitoria

    WLWLD
    Last 52W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 3D 3L
    16 Jul 2026H Vasco DA Gama1-0
    31 May 2026A Santos1-3
    23 May 2026H Internacional2-0
    17 May 2026A RB Bragantino0-2
    09 May 2026A Fluminense2-2
    Market aligned with main pickBotafogo to WinBetUK guide price · Model 51% vs implied 57% · edge -5.9 pts
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
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    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 79%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Botafogo Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 61%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%Botafogo Over 2.5
    40%Vitoria Over 2.5
    1.7H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Botafogo sit at 60% and Vitoria sit at 40% with the H2H average at 1.7 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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