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Vitoria crestVitoria

Serie A | Thu 23 Jul, 23:30

Botafogo v Vitoria Stats

Data last updated: Fri 24 Jul 2026, 13:48 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Botafogo and Vitoria meet in a Serie A clash where both teams have shown competitive intensity and physicality in recent matches. Botafogo, ranked 9th with 25 points, and Vitoria, 11th with the same points, have similar stakes to push for higher table positions. Botafogo's recent form includes a higher goals-for average and a perfect BTTS rate, indicating open play, while Vitoria's defensive resilience and tactical fouling suggest a contest that could see multiple cautions. The match is poised for a physical battle with both sides eager to assert control, increasing the likelihood of disciplinary actions.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Cards

  • Botafogo averages 4 yellow cards per game, indicating a physical style.
  • Vitoria averages 2 yellow cards per game but has key players with card risk.
  • Recent form shows Botafogo and Vitoria matches often feature multiple cautions.
  • Player data highlights several Botafogo players with high card risk indexes.
  • The model estimates a 75% chance for Over 3.5 Cards, reflecting game tempo and aggression.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies a 75% chance for Over 3.5 Cards driven by Botafogo's aggressive defensive approach and Vitoria's competitive intensity. Botafogo's average of 4 yellows per game and multiple players with high card risk, such as J. Correa and Ythallo, support this. Vitoria's players like Lucas Silva also carry card risk, suggesting both teams contribute to a high card count. The match tempo, combined with tactical fouling and physical duels, underpins the likelihood of multiple cautions. No price warnings apply, making this a standard stake opportunity based on solid data signals.

Botafogo Yellow Cards Average4 per game
Strong positive
Vitoria Card Risk PlayersLucas Silva (2.2 yellows/90)
Positive
Model Chance for Over 3.5 Cards75%
Strong positive
Player Card Risk IndexesJ. Correa and Ythallo at 100
Strong positive
Match Tempo and PhysicalityHigh intensity with tactical fouling
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a physically charged match with Botafogo's aggressive style and Vitoria's resilience likely to produce multiple cautions. The data shows strong card risk from key Botafogo players, and the competitive stakes suggest referees will have several disciplinary decisions to make, supporting Over 3.5 Cards.

Main risk

Botafogo carry the stronger scoring threat, but Vitoria must contribute for BTTS to land.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Card market analysis

“Botafogo's defensive aggression combined with Vitoria's competitive grit sets the stage for a high-card game, making Over 3.5 Cards a compelling angle based on player discipline profiles and match tempo.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Cards evidence

Botafogo averages 4 yellow cards per game, indicating a physical style.

Vitoria averages 2 yellow cards per game but has key players with card risk.

Recent form shows Botafogo and Vitoria matches often feature multiple cautions.

Player data highlights several Botafogo players with high card risk indexes.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Cards notes

  • In the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 1.7, indicating moderate scoring but not necessarily open games.
  • However, the tempo and physical nature of these encounters often lead to tactical fouling and disciplinary actions.
  • This trend suggests that while goals may be limited, card accumulation is a consistent feature, supporting the card market.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Botafogo3.8
Avg corners for
Vitoria4.2
Botafogo9.2
Avg total corners
Vitoria8.6
Botafogo4
Avg yellow cards
Vitoria2
Botafogo15
Avg shots
Vitoria12.2
Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Over 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 55%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 61%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 5.5 CardsBet365 guide price
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Both teams average around 4 corners per game, with Botafogo taking more shots (14.67) and shots on target (6.33) than Vitoria. The high shot volume and territorial pressure from Botafogo can provoke fouls and cards, while Vitoria's defensive fouling tendencies contribute to the card market. The combination of sustained pressure and fouling supports Over 3.5 Cards.

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Useful next reads

Serie A fixtures and predictionsBotafogo v Vitoria predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Botafogo1.6
Avg goals scored
Vitoria1.2
Botafogo1.2
Avg goals conceded
Vitoria1.4
Botafogo100%
BTTS rate
Vitoria40%
Botafogo60%
Over 2.5 goals
Vitoria40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 54%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 32%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
2
Check odds @ 2
While Botafogo averages 1.6 goals per game and Vitoria 1.2, the BTTS rate is 100% for Botafogo and 40% for Vitoria, suggesting open play from Botafogo but more cautious defense from Vitoria. This dynamic may lead to tactical fouling and interruptions, indirectly increasing card counts rather than goal totals.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
Vitoria to WinBetMGM guide price · model 33%
5
Check odds @ 5
Vitoria Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
2.85
Check odds @ 2.85
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 61%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Botafogo to WinBetUK guide price · model 51%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Botafogo Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 61%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
The Over 3.5 Cards market is supported by a 75% , reflecting Botafogo's high average of 4 yellow cards per game and several players with maximum card risk indexes. Vitoria's contribution through players like Lucas Silva adds to the likelihood. The price is standard with no warning flags, indicating a balanced market aligned with the data.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Botafogo

WLDWD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 4D 2L
16 Jul 2026H Santos2-1
30 May 2026A Bahia1-2
23 May 2026A Sao Paulo1-1
17 May 2026H Corinthians3-1
10 May 2026A Atletico-MG1-1

Vitoria

WLWLD
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 3L
16 Jul 2026H Vasco DA Gama1-0
31 May 2026A Santos1-3
23 May 2026H Internacional2-0
17 May 2026A RB Bragantino0-2
09 May 2026A Fluminense2-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 50% · edge +10.2 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Vitoria to WinBetMGM guide price · model 33%
5
Check odds @ 5
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 79%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Vitoria Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
2.85
Check odds @ 2.85
Botafogo to WinBetUK guide price · model 51%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Botafogo Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 61%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Recent matches show Botafogo averaging 4 yellow cards and Vitoria 2, with Botafogo's games featuring more physicality and fouling. Both teams have points totals reflecting competitive matches where discipline is tested. This recent form data aligns with the model's 75% chance for Over 3.5 Cards, indicating a continuation of aggressive play and refereeing intervention.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

5Botafogo wins
5Draws
0Vitoria wins
09 Nov 2025Vitoria v Botafogo0-0
17 Jul 2025Botafogo v Vitoria0-0
23 Nov 2024Botafogo v Vitoria1-1
12 Jul 2024Vitoria v Botafogo0-1
22 May 2024Vitoria v Botafogo1-2
02 May 2024Botafogo v Vitoria1-0
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
Vitoria to WinBetMGM guide price · model 33%
5
Check odds @ 5
Botafogo to WinBetUK guide price · model 51%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
The head-to-head sample of ten matches shows a moderate average of 1.7 goals but does not strongly indicate high or low card counts. The disciplinary aspect is less clear from past meetings, so current form and player card risk profiles provide stronger signals for the Over 3.5 Cards market in this fixture.
Season team stats

Serie A

Botafogo19
Played
Vitoria19
Botafogo1.7
Avg goals for
Vitoria1.2
Botafogo1.7
Avg goals against
Vitoria1.3
Botafogo2
Clean sheets
Vitoria8
Best odds for this sectionVitoria to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 33% vs implied 20% · edge +12.8 pts
5
Check odds @ 5
Load more odds for this section
Vitoria Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
2.85
Check odds @ 2.85
Botafogo to WinBetUK guide price · model 51%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Botafogo Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 61%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over the season, Botafogo's defensive approach results in a higher yellow card average, while Vitoria maintains a moderate disciplinary record. Botafogo's aggressive style and Vitoria's tactical fouling patterns combine to increase the likelihood of multiple cautions, supporting the Over 3.5 Cards market from a season-long perspective.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
9Botafogo26197571
11Vitoria2619757-3
Both Botafogo and Vitoria sit mid-table with equal points, creating a competitive environment where physicality and intensity rise as teams seek to improve standings. This pressure often leads to increased fouling and cards, reinforcing the probability of Over 3.5 Cards in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Botafogo Over 2.5
40%Vitoria Over 2.5
1.7H2H avg goals
In the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 1.7, indicating moderate scoring but not necessarily open games. However, the tempo and physical nature of these encounters often lead to tactical fouling and disciplinary actions. This trend suggests that while goals may be limited, card accumulation is a consistent feature, supporting the card market.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Botafogo v Vitoria prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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