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Botafogo crestBotafogo
v
Vitoria crestVitoria

Serie A | Thu 23 Jul, 23:30

Botafogo v Vitoria Stats

Data last updated: Sun 16 Aug 2026, 04:24 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Botafogo face Vitoria in Serie A on Thu 23 Jul, 23:30. Botafogo lead the league in goals scored but have defensive vulnerabilities, conceding in every recent match. Vitória bring strong attacking momentum and have scored in 11 consecutive away games, making both teams scoring a consistent pattern in their encounters.

BT4Y best bet

Dom, or Botafogo’s current tendency towards open football finally overwhelms the historical pattern

  • At 13/2, Dom, or Botafogo’s current tendency towards open football finally overwhelms the historical pattern implies roughly 13%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 28%.
  • Both teams have scored in Botafogo’s last 14 Brasileiro Série A matches, underlining how consistently their attacking ambition is accompanied by defensive exposure.
  • Botafogo have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 7 for Vitoria.
  • Botafogo have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Dom, or Botafogo’s current tendency towards open football finally overwhelms the historical pattern angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Botafogo sit 9 in the table, while Vitoria sit 13, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 28% for Dom, or Botafogo’s current tendency towards open football finally overwhelms the historical pattern sits against roughly 13% implied by the current price. Botafogo have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 7 for Vitoria. Both teams have scored in Botafogo’s last 14 Brasileiro Série A matches, underlining how consistently their attacking ambition is accompanied by defensive exposure.

Model chance vs price28% model chance against roughly 13% implied
Strong positive
Botafogo have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points.Visible data support
Positive
Botafogo have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Both teams have scored in Botafogo’s last 14 Brasileiro.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Botafogo Win is the preferred angle because both teams have scored in Botafogo’s last 14 Brasileiro Série A matches, underlining how consistently their attacking ambition is accompanied by defensive exposure. Botafogo have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 7 for Vitoria. Botafogo carry the stronger scoring threat, but Vitoria must contribute for BTTS to land.

Main risk

Botafogo carry the stronger scoring threat, but Vitoria must contribute for BTTS to land.

Key Data Signals

Dom, or Botafogo’s current tendency towards open football finally overwhelms the historical pattern evidence

Both teams have scored in Botafogo’s last 14 Brasileiro Série A matches, underlining how consistently their attacking ambition.

Botafogo have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 7 for Vitoria.

Botafogo have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Botafogo Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Botafogo sit 9 in the table, while Vitoria sit 13, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Dom, or Botafogo’s current tendency towards open football finally overwhelms the historical pattern notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Botafogo3.8
    Avg corners for
    Vitoria4.2
    Botafogo9.2
    Avg total corners
    Vitoria8.6
    Botafogo4
    Avg yellow cards
    Vitoria2
    Botafogo15
    Avg shots
    Vitoria12.2
    Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
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    Over 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 55%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 61%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    Over 5.5 CardsBet365 guide price
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Over 4.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Botafogo1.6
    Avg goals scored
    Vitoria1.2
    Botafogo1.2
    Avg goals conceded
    Vitoria1.4
    Botafogo100%
    BTTS rate
    Vitoria40%
    Botafogo60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Vitoria40%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
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    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 54%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 68%
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 32%
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickBotafogo to WinBetUK guide price · Model 51% vs implied 57% · edge -5.9 pts
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 72%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 61%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Botafogo Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 61%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Botafogo to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Botafogo

    WLDWD
    Last 52W 2D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 4D 2L
    16 Jul 2026H Santos2-1
    30 May 2026A Bahia1-2
    23 May 2026A Sao Paulo1-1
    17 May 2026H Corinthians3-1
    10 May 2026A Atletico-MG1-1

    Vitoria

    WLWLD
    Last 52W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 3D 3L
    16 Jul 2026H Vasco DA Gama1-0
    31 May 2026A Santos1-3
    23 May 2026H Internacional2-0
    17 May 2026A RB Bragantino0-2
    09 May 2026A Fluminense2-2
    Market aligned with main pickBotafogo to WinBetUK guide price · Model 51% vs implied 57% · edge -5.9 pts
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
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    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 79%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Botafogo Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 61%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    5Botafogo wins
    5Draws
    0Vitoria wins
    09 Nov 2025Vitoria v Botafogo0-0
    17 Jul 2025Botafogo v Vitoria0-0
    23 Nov 2024Botafogo v Vitoria1-1
    12 Jul 2024Vitoria v Botafogo0-1
    22 May 2024Vitoria v Botafogo1-2
    02 May 2024Botafogo v Vitoria1-0
    Market aligned with main pickBotafogo to WinBetUK guide price · Model 51% vs implied 57% · edge -5.9 pts
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
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    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 72%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Botafogo to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Serie A

    Botafogo21
    Played
    Vitoria22
    Botafogo1.7
    Avg goals for
    Vitoria1
    Botafogo1.6
    Avg goals against
    Vitoria1.5
    Botafogo3
    Clean sheets
    Vitoria8
    Market aligned with main pickBotafogo to WinBetUK guide price · Model 51% vs implied 57% · edge -5.9 pts
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Load more odds for this section
    Botafogo Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 61%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Season data supports Botafogo to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    9Botafogo30218672
    13Vitoria26227510-11
    Botafogo sit in position 9, while Vitoria sit in position 13, so table pressure belongs in the Dom, or Botafogo’s current tendency towards open football finally overwhelms the historical pattern assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%Botafogo Over 2.5
    40%Vitoria Over 2.5
    1.7H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Botafogo sit at 60% and Vitoria sit at 40% with the H2H average at 1.7 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.