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Botafogo crestBotafogo
v
Racing Club crestRacing Club

CONMEBOL Sudamericana | Thu 07 May, 01:30

Botafogo v Racing Club Stats

Data last updated: Wed 24 Jun 2026, 12:23 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Botafogo face Racing Club in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on Thu 07 May, 01:30. With Racing currently winless in six matches and Botafogo averaging over two goals per game in this competition, the Brazilian side have the attacking rhythm and home advantage to secure all three points in Rio.

BT4Y best bet

Ing one of three outcomes: Home Win, Away Win, or a Draw

  • At 1/1, Botafogo Win implies roughly 50%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 62%.
  • Botafogo are strong at home and already beat Racing Club 3-2 in Argentina recently.
  • Botafogo have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 4 for Racing Club.
  • Botafogo have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Botafogo Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 62% for Botafogo Win sits against roughly 50% implied by the current price. Botafogo have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 4 for Racing Club. Botafogo are strong at home and already beat Racing Club 3-2 in Argentina recently.

Model chance vs price62% model chance against roughly 50% implied
Positive
Botafogo have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points.Visible data support
Positive
Botafogo have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Botafogo are strong at home and already beat Racing.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Botafogo Win is the preferred angle because botafogo are strong at home and already beat Racing Club 3-2 in Argentina recently. Botafogo have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 4 for Racing Club. They are not collapsing, but they are drifting.

Main risk

They are not collapsing, but they are drifting.

Key Data Signals

Botafogo Win evidence

Botafogo are strong at home and already beat Racing Club 3-2 in Argentina recently.

Botafogo have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 4 for Racing Club.

Botafogo have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Botafogo Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Botafogo Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Botafogo8.67
    Avg corners for
    Racing Club7
    Botafogo12
    Avg total corners
    Racing Club10.33
    Botafogo2.67
    Avg yellow cards
    Racing Club2
    Botafogo20
    Avg shots
    Racing Club18.33
    Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 68% vs implied 48% · edge +20.8 pts
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 73%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 5.5 CardsBetMGM guide price
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    Botafogo v Racing Club predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Botafogo2.33
    Avg goals scored
    Racing Club2
    Botafogo1
    Avg goals conceded
    Racing Club1.67
    Botafogo67%
    BTTS rate
    Racing Club100%
    Botafogo67%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Racing Club67%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 76% vs implied 27% · edge +49.3 pts
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 67%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 85%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 49%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 37%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickBotafogo to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 62% vs implied 46% · edge +16 pts
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 68%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Botafogo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 70%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 67%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 73%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Botafogo to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Botafogo

    WWD
    Last 52W 1D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 1D 0L
    28 Apr 2026H Independiente Petrolero3-0
    15 Apr 2026A Racing Club3-2
    09 Apr 2026H Caracas FC1-1

    Racing Club

    DLW
    Last 51W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 1D 1L
    29 Apr 2026A Caracas FC1-1
    15 Apr 2026H Botafogo2-3
    07 Apr 2026A Independiente Petrolero3-1
    Market aligned with main pickBotafogo to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 62% vs implied 46% · edge +16 pts
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Load more odds for this section
    Botafogo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 70%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    1Botafogo wins
    0Draws
    2Racing Club wins
    15 Apr 2026Racing Club v Botafogo2-3
    28 Feb 2025Botafogo v Racing Club0-2
    21 Feb 2025Racing Club v Botafogo2-0
    Market aligned with main pickBotafogo to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 62% vs implied 46% · edge +16 pts
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 67%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Botafogo to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    CONMEBOL Sudamericana

    Botafogo6
    Played
    Racing Club6
    Botafogo2.5
    Avg goals for
    Racing Club1.8
    Botafogo0.8
    Avg goals against
    Racing Club1.5
    Botafogo2
    Clean sheets
    Racing Club1
    Market aligned with main pickBotafogo to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 62% vs implied 46% · edge +16 pts
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Load more odds for this section
    Botafogo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 70%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Season data supports Botafogo to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    1Botafogo16651010
    3Racing Club862222
    CONMEBOL Sudamericana standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    67%Botafogo Over 2.5
    67%Racing Club Over 2.5
    3H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Botafogo sit at 67% and Racing Club sit at 67% with the H2H average at 3 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Botafogo v Racing Club prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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