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Grimsby crestGrimsby

Friendlies Clubs | Wed 29 Jul, 19:00

Boston United v Grimsby Stats

Data last updated: Tue 28 Jul 2026, 05:21 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This friendly clash between Boston United and Grimsby offers an intriguing test ahead of the competitive season. Grimsby enter with slightly better recent form, having accumulated 8 points compared to Boston United's 6 in recent matches. Grimsby's attack has been more productive, averaging 2.25 goals per game, while their defense remains solid, conceding just 0.5 goals on average. Boston United have shown defensive resilience but less offensive output. Both sides will be assessing squad fitness and tactical options, making this an open contest with Grimsby holding a slight edge in quality and momentum.

BT4Y best bet

Grimsby to Win

  • Grimsby have a 59.7% to win, reflecting stronger recent form and attack.
  • Boston United have scored only 1 goal recently versus Grimsby's 2.25 per game average.
  • Grimsby concede fewer goals (0.5) compared to Boston United (0.67), indicating defensive solidity.
  • Over 2.5 goals occurred in 50% of Grimsby's recent matches, higher than Boston United's 33%.
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.75 over 4 matches, suggesting moderate scoring potential.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Grimsby to win based on their superior recent form and attacking output, scoring 2.25 goals per game compared to Boston United's 1. Their defensive record is also tighter, conceding only 0.5 goals per game. These factors combine to give Grimsby a clear edge in this friendly, despite the inherent unpredictability of pre-season fixtures. The data quality is solid for both teams, supporting in this selection.

Recent form pointsGrimsby 8 vs Boston United 6
Positive
Goals scored per gameGrimsby 2.25 vs Boston United 1
Strong positive
Goals conceded per gameGrimsby 0.5 vs Boston United 0.67
Positive
Over 2.5 goals rateGrimsby 50% vs Boston United 33%
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Grimsby's recent attacking form and defensive stability give them a tactical and statistical advantage in this friendly. Their ability to create and convert chances while maintaining a solid backline suggests they are well placed to secure victory against Boston United, who have been less prolific upfront.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Grimsby's balance of offensive threat and defensive discipline stands out in this fixture, making them the logical choice to edge this friendly encounter.”

Key Data Signals

Grimsby to Win evidence

Grimsby have a 59.7% to win, reflecting stronger recent form and attack.

Boston United have scored only 1 goal recently versus Grimsby's 2.25 per game average.

Grimsby concede fewer goals (0.5) compared to Boston United (0.67), indicating defensive solidity.

Over 2.5 goals occurred in 50% of Grimsby's recent matches, higher than Boston United's 33%.

What To Watch In The Data

Grimsby to Win notes

  • Over the last four head-to-head matches, the average goals per game is 2.75, indicating a moderate scoring tempo.
  • Grimsby's higher over 2.5 goals rate in recent matches suggests this fixture could see open play and multiple goal opportunities, influenced by the attacking intent of both sides.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Boston United1
Avg goals scored
Grimsby2.25
Boston United0.67
Avg goals conceded
Grimsby0.5
Boston United33%
BTTS rate
Grimsby50%
Boston United33%
Over 2.5 goals
Grimsby50%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 43% · edge +14.2 pts
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 47%
1.58
Check odds @ 1.58
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 29%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Grimsby's matches have featured a higher rate of over 2.5 goals (50%) compared to Boston United (33%), suggesting a more open attacking style. The head-to-head average of 2.75 goals over four games supports the potential for multiple goals, with both teams capable of contributing to the scoreline.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Boston United

WWL
Last 52W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 1L
25 Jul 2026H Peterborough1-0
14 Jul 2026A Alfreton Town2-1
11 Jul 2026H Lincoln0-1

Grimsby

WWDD
Last 52W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 0L
28 Jul 2026H Lincoln5-1
25 Jul 2026A Hartlepool3-0
18 Jul 2026A Zorya Luhansk1-1
11 Jul 2026A Cleethorpes Town0-0
Market aligned with main pickGrimsby to WinBetUK guide price · Model 60% vs implied 48% · edge +12.1 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Grimsby Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Grimsby's recent form shows 8 points with an average of 2.25 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded, indicating strong momentum and balance. Boston United's 6 points and lower scoring rate reflect a less potent attack, giving Grimsby a form-based advantage heading into this match.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickGrimsby to WinBetUK guide price · Model 60% vs implied 48% · edge +12.1 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Grimsby Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 47%
1.58
Check odds @ 1.58
The pricing for Grimsby to win aligns well with the model's 59.7% chance, indicating a fair value bet without significant price sensitivity. The reflect Grimsby's stronger recent form and attacking efficiency, making this a reasonable market to consider in the context of a friendly.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Boston United wins
0Draws
3Grimsby wins
23 Jul 2025Boston United v Grimsby1-2
16 Jul 2024Boston United v Grimsby0-2
26 Jul 2023Boston United v Grimsby3-2
07 Aug 2021Boston United v Grimsby0-1
Market aligned with main pickGrimsby to WinBetUK guide price · Model 60% vs implied 48% · edge +12.1 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 47%
1.58
Check odds @ 1.58
The four previous meetings between Boston United and Grimsby have averaged 2.75 goals per game, showing a tendency for moderate scoring. While the sample is limited, it suggests neither side dominates defensively, leaving room for an open contest that aligns with Grimsby's stronger recent form.
Season team stats

Friendlies Clubs

Boston United3
Played
Grimsby4
Boston United1
Avg goals for
Grimsby2.3
Boston United0.7
Avg goals against
Grimsby0.5
Boston United1
Clean sheets
Grimsby2
Market aligned with main pickGrimsby to WinBetUK guide price · Model 60% vs implied 48% · edge +12.1 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Grimsby Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Grimsby's season stats demonstrate a more effective offense and tighter defense compared to Boston United, supporting the likelihood of a Grimsby win. Their ability to score more frequently while conceding less underpins their favorable position in this friendly encounter.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

33%Boston United Over 2.5
50%Grimsby Over 2.5
2.75H2H avg goals
Over the last four head-to-head matches, the average goals per game is 2.75, indicating a moderate scoring tempo. Grimsby's higher over 2.5 goals rate in recent matches suggests this fixture could see open play and multiple goal opportunities, influenced by the attacking intent of both sides.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.