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Bolivia crestBolivia
v
Paraguay crestParaguay

Friendlies | Sun 27 Sep, 21:30

Bolivia v Paraguay Stats

Data last updated: Sat 26 Sep 2026, 07:59 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Bolivia and Paraguay face off in a friendly that promises open play and attacking intent from both sides. Bolivia's recent matches have seen a moderate goal output but a tendency to concede, while Paraguay has demonstrated a sharper offensive edge, averaging two goals per game in recent outings. Both teams are likely to experiment with attacking formations and line-ups, increasing the chances of goals. With no competitive stakes, the match could see less defensive rigidity, favoring a lively encounter with multiple scoring opportunities.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Both teams have over 2.5 goals rates above 60% in recent matches.
  • Paraguay averages 2 goals scored and concedes less than 1 per game, showing attacking efficiency.
  • Bolivia concedes 2 goals per game on average, indicating defensive vulnerability.
  • The last seven meetings between these teams averaged 3 goals per game, supporting a high-scoring trend.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies a 64.3% chance for over 2.5 goals, supported by both teams' recent attacking output and defensive frailties. Paraguay's strong shot volume and goal threat, combined with Bolivia's susceptibility at the back, create a favorable environment for multiple goals. The at 1.73 offer positive value given the 57.8% implied chance, making this a solid pick for bettors seeking a lively, goal-rich friendly. is bolstered by consistent over 2.5 goal rates and historical head-to-head averages.

Model Chance64.3% model chance vs 57.8% implied (+6.5 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance64.3% model chance vs 57.8% implied (+6.5 pts)
Positive
Value Edge64.3% model chance vs 57.8% implied (+6.5 pts)
Strong positive
Confidence71
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking friendly where Paraguay's offensive prowess meets Bolivia's defensive challenges. Paraguay's higher shot accuracy and goal threat suggest they will create multiple chances, while Bolivia's defensive record indicates they may concede more than once. This combination points to a match likely to surpass 2.5 goals, making the over 2.5 goals bet a tactically and statistically sound choice.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Attacking roles and defensive weaknesses

“Paraguay's attacking players like G. Enciso bring significant goal threat, while Bolivia's defensive vulnerabilities create fertile ground for a high-scoring game. The statistical trends and player roles align well with an over 2.5 goals outcome in this friendly.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Both teams have over 2.5 goals rates above 60% in recent matches.

Paraguay averages 2 goals scored and concedes less than 1 per game, showing attacking efficiency.

Bolivia concedes 2 goals per game on average, indicating defensive vulnerability.

The last seven meetings between these teams averaged 3 goals per game, supporting a high-scoring trend.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • The last seven meetings between Bolivia and Paraguay have averaged 3 goals per game, indicating a historical trend toward open, high-scoring matches.
  • This trend, combined with recent form and attacking profiles, suggests a continued pattern favoring over 2.5 goals in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Bolivia0.8
Avg goals scored
Paraguay2
Bolivia2
Avg goals conceded
Paraguay0.67
Bolivia20%
BTTS rate
Paraguay33%
Bolivia60%
Over 2.5 goals
Paraguay67%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 58% · edge +6.5 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 82%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 46%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Both teams show tendencies toward matches with multiple goals, with Bolivia's over 2.5 rate at 60% and Paraguay's at 67%. Paraguay's stronger attack and Bolivia's defensive concessions create a scenario conducive to goals from both sides, although BTTS rates are moderate, indicating some risk of one-sided scoring.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 58% · edge +6.5 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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Bolivia Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Paraguay Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 73%
1.26
Check odds @ 1.26
Paraguay to WinBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Bolivia to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 23%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
The 64.3% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 57.8% implied by the current price (+6.5 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for Bolivia and 67% for Paraguay, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Friendlies hubcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Bolivia

LLWLD
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 3L
11 Jun 2026H Algeria0-4
06 Jun 2026H Scotland0-4
15 Mar 2026H Trinidad and Tobago3-0
25 Jan 2026H Mexico0-1
18 Jan 2026H Panama1-1

Paraguay

WLW
Last 52W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 1L
05 Jun 2026H Nicaragua4-0
31 Mar 2026A Morocco1-2
27 Mar 2026A Greece1-0
Best odds for this sectionBolivia Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 42% vs implied 27% · edge +15 pts
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Paraguay Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 73%
1.26
Check odds @ 1.26
Paraguay to WinBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Bolivia to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 23%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
Recent form data shows Paraguay scoring 2 goals per game and conceding less than 1, indicating strong offensive and defensive balance. Bolivia's form is less robust, scoring 0.8 and conceding 2 goals per game, suggesting defensive frailty that could lead to a higher-scoring match overall.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Bolivia Over 2.5
67%Paraguay Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
The last seven meetings between Bolivia and Paraguay have averaged 3 goals per game, indicating a historical trend toward open, high-scoring matches. This trend, combined with recent form and attacking profiles, suggests a continued pattern favoring over 2.5 goals in this fixture.

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