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Bodo/Glimt crestBodo/Glimt
v
Lillestrom crestLillestrom

Eliteserien | Fri 31 Jul, 20:00

Bodo/Glimt v Lillestrom Stats

Data last updated: Thu 30 Jul 2026, 04:14 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Bodo/Glimt enter this Eliteserien clash as league leaders, boasting a strong recent run with 13 points from their last five matches and an impressive defensive record conceding just 0.4 goals per game. Lillestrom, positioned fourth, have been less consistent, securing 6 points in the same period and conceding 1.4 goals per match. Bodo/Glimt's attacking efficiency and solid home form set the stage for a tactical battle where they are expected to control possession and limit Lillestrom's chances, aiming to extend their lead at the top of the table.

BT4Y match pick · price watch

Bodo/Glimt to Win

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 80%, above the 74% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • Bodo/Glimt leads the league with 35 points, showing strong overall form.
  • Bodo/Glimt averages 2.2 goals scored and only 0.4 conceded per game recently.
  • Lillestrom concedes 1.4 goals per match, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.
  • Bodo/Glimt averages 16.4 shots with 6 on target per game, dominating offensive stats.
Price warning

Bodo/Glimt to Win is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 80% while the model sits nearer 74% (-6 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Lillestrom Draw No Bet shows a +15 pts edge at 5.25.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The model favors Bodo/Glimt to win based on their dominant league position, superior recent form, and strong defensive and attacking statistics. Their high shot volume and low goals conceded rate underline their control in matches, while Lillestrom's defensive frailties and lower scoring rate make them less likely to challenge effectively. The data quality is solid for both teams, reinforcing in this selection as a well-supported choice without price sensitivity concerns.

Price / value74% model chance vs 80% implied (-6 pts)
Negative
League PositionBodo/Glimt 1st vs Lillestrom 4th
Strong positive
Recent Form Points13 vs 6 in last 5 matches
Strong positive
Goals Conceded per Game0.4 vs 1.4
Strong positive
Average Shots per Game16.4 vs 11.6
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Bodo/Glimt's tactical discipline and attacking firepower make them the clear favorites to secure victory. Their recent form and defensive solidity provide a strong foundation, while Lillestrom's inconsistency and defensive weaknesses reduce their chances of causing an upset in this fixture.

Main risk

Lillestrom carry the stronger scoring threat, but Bodo/Glimt must contribute for BTTS to land.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Bodo/Glimt's blend of clinical finishing and defensive resilience positions them well to dominate this encounter, especially given Lillestrom's struggles to contain high-pressure attacks.”

Key Data Signals

Bodo/Glimt to Win evidence

Bodo/Glimt leads the league with 35 points, showing strong overall form.

Bodo/Glimt averages 2.2 goals scored and only 0.4 conceded per game recently.

Lillestrom concedes 1.4 goals per match, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.

Bodo/Glimt averages 16.4 shots with 6 on target per game, dominating offensive stats.

What To Watch In The Data

Bodo/Glimt to Win notes

  • In the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 3.9, indicating a relatively open fixture historically.
  • Both teams have a 60% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals recently, suggesting potential for multiple goals.
  • However, Bodo/Glimt's defensive discipline may temper the overall goal count, pointing to a controlled but potentially high-tempo game.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Bodo/Glimt7.6
Avg corners for
Lillestrom5.6
Bodo/Glimt9.4
Avg total corners
Lillestrom11.2
Bodo/Glimt0.4
Avg yellow cards
Lillestrom1.2
Bodo/Glimt16.4
Avg shots
Lillestrom11.6
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
2
Check odds @ 2
Bodo/Glimt's average of 7.6 corners and 16.4 shots per game highlights their offensive pressure and territorial control. Their low yellow card average (0.4) contrasts with Lillestrom's higher disciplinary count (1.2 yellows), reflecting Bodo/Glimt's composed style versus Lillestrom's more physical approach, which may lead to fouls and set-piece opportunities.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Bodo/Glimt2.2
Avg goals scored
Lillestrom1.2
Bodo/Glimt0.4
Avg goals conceded
Lillestrom1.4
Bodo/Glimt20%
BTTS rate
Lillestrom60%
Bodo/Glimt60%
Over 2.5 goals
Lillestrom60%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 39% vs implied 29% · edge +10 pts
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 83%
1.08
Check odds @ 1.08
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 44%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Bodo/Glimt's low BTTS rate of 20% combined with their strong defensive record suggests a controlled match with limited goal concessions. Lillestrom's higher BTTS rate indicates they are more prone to conceding, but Bodo/Glimt's ability to manage games reduces the likelihood of both teams scoring, favoring a more measured goal scenario.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBodo/Glimt to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 80% · edge -6 pts
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Bodo/Glimt Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.16
Check odds @ 1.16
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
The pricing for Bodo/Glimt to win reflects their strong of 74%, indicating a fair market valuation without significant or warning. The are stable and align well with the team's dominant form and league standing, suggesting a reliable betting angle rather than a speculative price-sensitive play.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Bodo/Glimt

WWWWD
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 108W 1D 1L
26 Jul 2026A Sandefjord3-0
22 Jul 2026H Ham-Kam3-0
17 Jul 2026H Fredrikstad1-0
12 Jul 2026A KFUM Oslo2-0
29 May 2026A Rosenborg2-2

Lillestrom

LWWLL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 0D 5L
22 Jul 2026H Viking1-2
18 Jul 2026H KFUM Oslo2-1
11 Jul 2026A Fredrikstad2-0
25 May 2026A Ham-Kam0-2
20 May 2026H Kristiansund BK1-2
Market aligned with main pickBodo/Glimt to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 80% · edge -6 pts
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.07
Check odds @ 1.07
Bodo/Glimt Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.16
Check odds @ 1.16
Bodo/Glimt's recent form is impressive, securing 13 points in their last five matches with a strong goal difference. Their defensive solidity, conceding just 0.4 goals per game, complements their attacking output of 2.2 goals per game, underscoring their balanced and effective play. Lillestrom's form is less convincing, with only 6 points and a higher goals-against average, suggesting they may struggle to contain Bodo/Glimt's momentum.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

7Bodo/Glimt wins
1Draws
2Lillestrom wins
26 Apr 2026Lillestrom v Bodo/Glimt0-2
22 Mar 2026Bodo/Glimt v Lillestrom4-0
01 Dec 2024Bodo/Glimt v Lillestrom5-2
01 May 2024Bodo/Glimt v Lillestrom2-4
14 Apr 2024Lillestrom v Bodo/Glimt0-5
30 Oct 2023Bodo/Glimt v Lillestrom3-1
Market aligned with main pickBodo/Glimt to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 80% · edge -6 pts
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
The head-to-head record over the last ten matches shows an average of 3.9 goals per game, reflecting open and competitive encounters. While this suggests both teams can score, Bodo/Glimt's current defensive form and league position provide them with an advantage, making previous meetings a useful but not decisive factor in predicting the outcome.
Season team stats

Eliteserien

Bodo/Glimt15
Played
Lillestrom14
Bodo/Glimt2.5
Avg goals for
Lillestrom1.6
Bodo/Glimt0.7
Avg goals against
Lillestrom1
Bodo/Glimt9
Clean sheets
Lillestrom5
Market aligned with main pickBodo/Glimt to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 80% · edge -6 pts
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Load more odds for this section
Bodo/Glimt Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.16
Check odds @ 1.16
Over the season, Bodo/Glimt has demonstrated consistent attacking efficiency and defensive resilience, reflected in their league-leading position and superior goal difference. Their ability to maintain pressure and limit opponents' chances supports the expectation of a home win. Lillestrom's season stats reveal vulnerabilities in defense and less prolific scoring, which may be exploited in this fixture.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1Bodo/Glimt3515112226
4Lillestrom25148158
Bodo/Glimt sits atop the Eliteserien standings with a 10-point lead over Lillestrom in fourth place. This gap highlights the pressure on Lillestrom to close the distance and Bodo/Glimt's motivation to maintain control. The league context emphasizes the importance of this match for both teams' ambitions, with Bodo/Glimt aiming to consolidate their lead.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Bodo/Glimt Over 2.5
60%Lillestrom Over 2.5
3.9H2H avg goals
In the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 3.9, indicating a relatively open fixture historically. Both teams have a 60% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals recently, suggesting potential for multiple goals. However, Bodo/Glimt's defensive discipline may temper the overall goal count, pointing to a controlled but potentially high-tempo game.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Bodo/Glimt v Lillestrom prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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