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CONMEBOL Sudamericana | Wed 14 Oct, 01:30

Boca Juniors v Vasco DA Gama Stats

Data last updated: Tue 13 Oct 2026, 07:46 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This CONMEBOL Sudamericana clash features Boca Juniors hosting Vasco DA Gama in a high-stakes encounter. Vasco DA Gama arrives with solid recent form, securing 11 points and boasting a stingy defense conceding just 0.2 goals per game. Boca Juniors, while scoring more frequently, have been less consistent defensively. The tactical battle will likely hinge on Vasco's disciplined backline and counter-attacking threat against Boca's more aggressive offensive approach. Both teams face pressure to advance, making this a tense and competitive fixture with Vasco DA Gama as a confident underdog.

BT4Y best bet

Vasco DA Gama to Win

  • Vasco DA Gama holds a strong defensive record, conceding only 0.2 goals per game recently.
  • Boca Juniors score more but have a higher goals-against rate, indicating defensive vulnerability.
  • Vasco DA Gama's key attackers like C. Spinelli and Adson provide goal threat and shot volume.
  • Recent form favors Vasco DA Gama with 11 points versus Boca Juniors' 10 points in last matches.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Vasco DA Gama to win with a 44.2% chance, significantly higher than the implied 22.2% from current , indicating strong value. Vasco's defensive solidity and efficient attack, led by players like C. Spinelli with 3 goals and 2.01 shots on target per 90, underpin this . Boca Juniors' higher goals conceded and less consistent form further support Vasco's chances. The data quality is solid, and no price warnings apply, making this a well-supported selection with a good level of 69%.

Model Chance37.2% model chance vs 22.2% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance37.2% model chance vs 22.2% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Defensive StrengthVasco DA Gama concedes 0.2 goals per game
Strong positive
Key Player ThreatC. Spinelli 3 goals, 2.01 SOT/90
Positive
Recent FormVasco DA Gama 11 points vs Boca Juniors 10
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Vasco DA Gama's disciplined defense and effective counter-attacking style make them a strong contender to upset Boca Juniors. Their recent form and defensive record provide a solid foundation, while Boca's vulnerabilities at the back increase Vasco's chances of securing a win in this crucial Sudamericana fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Vasco DA Gama's resilience and clinical finishing under pressure position them well to capitalize on Boca Juniors' defensive lapses in this tight Sudamericana encounter.”

Key Data Signals

Vasco DA Gama to Win evidence

Vasco DA Gama holds a strong defensive record, conceding only 0.2 goals per game recently.

Boca Juniors score more but have a higher goals-against rate, indicating defensive vulnerability.

Vasco DA Gama's key attackers like C. Spinelli and Adson provide goal threat and shot volume.

Recent form favors Vasco DA Gama with 11 points versus Boca Juniors' 10 points in last matches.

What To Watch In The Data

Vasco DA Gama to Win notes

  • Over the last five matches, Over 2.5 Goals have occurred in 40% of Boca Juniors' games but only 20% of Vasco DA Gama's, indicating a trend towards lower scoring encounters for Vasco.
  • The average goals in recent matches suggest a cautious tempo with defensive solidity, supporting expectations of a tight game with limited goal-scoring opportunities.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Boca Juniors1.8
Avg goals scored
Vasco DA Gama1.4
Boca Juniors0.6
Avg goals conceded
Vasco DA Gama0.2
Boca Juniors40%
BTTS rate
Vasco DA Gama20%
Boca Juniors40%
Over 2.5 goals
Vasco DA Gama20%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 47% vs implied 42% · edge +4.7 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 38%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 56%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Goal trends show Boca Juniors averaging 1.8 goals per game with a 40% Over 2.5 rate and 40% BTTS, indicating moderate scoring and some defensive openness. Vasco DA Gama averages fewer goals (1.4) with a lower Over 2.5 (20%) and BTTS rate (20%), reflecting a more cautious approach. This suggests a likely tight game with limited goals and a lower chance of both teams scoring.

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Boca Juniors

DWWWL
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 1L
16 Sep 2026A Sao Paulo1-1
09 Sep 2026H Sao Paulo1-0
18 Aug 2026A Deportivo Recoleta4-0
11 Aug 2026H Deportivo Recoleta3-1
31 Jul 2026A O'Higgins0-1

Vasco DA Gama

WDWDW
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 3D 1L
15 Sep 2026H Santa Fe2-0
08 Sep 2026A Santa Fe0-0
20 Aug 2026A Olimpia4-1
13 Aug 2026H Olimpia0-0
29 Jul 2026H Independiente Medellin1-0
Market aligned with main pickVasco DA Gama to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 37% vs implied 22% · edge +15 pts
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Vasco DA Gama Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 51%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Recent form data favors Vasco DA Gama, who have collected 11 points with a strong defensive record conceding just 0.2 goals per game. Boca Juniors have 10 points but concede more frequently (0.6 goals per game), indicating potential defensive vulnerabilities. Vasco's momentum and defensive consistency provide a solid base for an away win in this fixture.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickVasco DA Gama to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 37% vs implied 22% · edge +15 pts
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Load more odds for this section
Vasco DA Gama Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 51%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 47%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 38%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
The 37.2% for Vasco DA Gama to Win sits against roughly 22.2% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Vasco DA Gama have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 10 for Boca Juniors.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Boca Juniors Over 2.5
20%Vasco DA Gama Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, Over 2.5 Goals have occurred in 40% of Boca Juniors' games but only 20% of Vasco DA Gama's, indicating a trend towards lower scoring encounters for Vasco. The average goals in recent matches suggest a cautious tempo with defensive solidity, supporting expectations of a tight game with limited goal-scoring opportunities.

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