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Championship | Sun 06 Sep, 12:00

Birmingham v Wolves Stats

Data last updated: Sat 05 Sep 2026, 08:09 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Championship clash features Birmingham hosting Wolves in a fixture poised for attacking intensity. Wolves have shown strong offensive form with an average of 2.75 goals scored per game, while Birmingham have contributed to open contests, boasting a 75% BTTS rate. Both sides have been involved in matches with multiple goals recently, setting the stage for a lively encounter. Wolves' higher league position and offensive threat contrast with Birmingham's resilience, suggesting a dynamic game with goal-scoring opportunities at both ends.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Wolves average 2.75 goals per game, indicating strong attacking potential.
  • Birmingham's matches have a 75% BTTS rate, showing frequent goals for both sides.
  • Both teams have combined for a 66.4% of Over 2.5 Goals.
  • Recent form shows Wolves have a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate, Birmingham 50%.
  • Average shots per game: Wolves 17.5, Birmingham 10.75, supporting offensive intent.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 2.5 Goals as a strong value bet with a 66.4% chance, well above the implied market probability of 47.6%. Wolves' potent attack averaging 2.75 goals per game and Birmingham's openness, with a high BTTS rate, create conditions conducive to multiple goals. The teams' recent form and shot volumes reinforce the likelihood of an open, goal-rich match. No data limitations affect , and the current offer a positive , making this a compelling selection.

Model Chance66.4%
Strong positive
Wolves Goals Per Game2.75
Strong positive
Birmingham BTTS Rate75%
Positive
Recent Over 2.5 RatesWolves 100%, Birmingham 50%
Positive
Implied Market Chance47.6%
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open game with Wolves pushing forward aggressively and Birmingham responding with attacking intent. Wolves' superior goal-scoring form and Birmingham's tendency to concede and score suggest Over 2.5 Goals is a fitting prediction. The data supports a lively encounter with multiple scoring opportunities.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match goal-scoring potential

“Wolves' attacking firepower combined with Birmingham's openness sets the stage for a high-scoring Championship fixture. The statistical indicators strongly favor Over 2.5 Goals, reflecting both teams' offensive tendencies and recent match dynamics.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Wolves average 2.75 goals per game, indicating strong attacking potential.

Birmingham's matches have a 75% BTTS rate, showing frequent goals for both sides.

Both teams have combined for a 66.4% of Over 2.5 Goals.

Recent form shows Wolves have a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate, Birmingham 50%.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.1, suggesting moderate scoring historically.
  • However, recent form and attacking metrics indicate an upward trend in goals, with Wolves' recent matches consistently exceeding 2.5 goals, pointing to a faster tempo and more open game in this fixture.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Birmingham6
Avg corners for
Wolves7
Birmingham9.25
Avg total corners
Wolves10.5
Birmingham1.75
Avg yellow cards
Wolves1
Birmingham10.75
Avg shots
Wolves18
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 60% vs implied 55% · edge +5.2 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 56%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Wolves average 5.75 corners per game and Birmingham 6, indicating balanced territorial battles and set-piece opportunities. Wolves' higher shot volume (17.5 per game) compared to Birmingham (10.75) points to sustained attacking pressure, while card data shows moderate discipline levels, unlikely to disrupt attacking flow significantly.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Birmingham1.25
Avg goals scored
Wolves2.75
Birmingham1
Avg goals conceded
Wolves2
Birmingham75%
BTTS rate
Wolves100%
Birmingham50%
Over 2.5 goals
Wolves100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 42%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 38%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Both teams have shown a propensity for goals, with Wolves scoring 2.75 goals per game and Birmingham involved in matches with a 75% BTTS rate. This suggests that goals are likely at both ends, increasing the probability of Over 2.5 Goals and BTTS outcomes in this fixture.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Wolves to WinBet365 guide price · model 52%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Wolves Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 61%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 56%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Birmingham Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
The Over 2.5 Goals market is priced attractively with around 2.1, reflecting a 47.6% implied chance, which is significantly lower than the model's 66.4% probability. This discrepancy indicates clear value in backing Over 2.5 Goals, supported by both teams' offensive metrics and recent scoring trends.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Birmingham

DWDD
Last 51W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 3D 0L
01 Sep 2026H Southampton1-1
28 Aug 2026A Wrexham2-1
22 Aug 2026H Bristol City2-2
15 Aug 2026A Sheffield Utd0-0

Wolves

LWWD
Last 52W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 1L
01 Sep 2026A West Ham2-4
29 Aug 2026H Stoke City4-1
22 Aug 2026A Preston3-1
14 Aug 2026H Blackburn2-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 78% vs implied 71% · edge +6.9 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
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Wolves to WinBet365 guide price · model 52%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Wolves Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 61%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Birmingham Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Birmingham to WinBetMGM guide price · model 33%
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Recent form data shows Wolves have consistently participated in high-scoring games, with a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate, while Birmingham's rate stands at 50%. Both teams have scored and conceded regularly, reflecting open matches and supporting the likelihood of Over 2.5 Goals in this encounter.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Birmingham wins
2Draws
6Wolves wins
15 Apr 2018Wolves v Birmingham2-0
04 Dec 2017Birmingham v Wolves0-1
24 Feb 2017Wolves v Birmingham1-2
20 Aug 2016Birmingham v Wolves1-3
13 Mar 2016Wolves v Birmingham0-0
31 Oct 2015Birmingham v Wolves0-2
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Wolves to WinBet365 guide price · model 52%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Birmingham to WinBetMGM guide price · model 33%
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
The head-to-head record over ten matches shows an average of 2.1 goals per game, a moderate scoring rate. While this suggests balanced encounters historically, current attacking form and recent scoring trends suggest a higher likelihood of Over 2.5 Goals in this upcoming match.
Season team stats

Championship

Birmingham4
Played
Wolves4
Birmingham1.3
Avg goals for
Wolves2.8
Birmingham1
Avg goals against
Wolves2
Birmingham1
Clean sheets
Wolves0
Best odds for this sectionWolves to WinBet365 guide price · Model 52% vs implied 42% · edge +9.8 pts
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
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Wolves Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 61%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Birmingham Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Birmingham to WinBetMGM guide price · model 33%
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
Season-long statistics reveal Wolves as a high-scoring side with 2.75 goals per game, while Birmingham's defense concedes an average of 1 goal per match. Birmingham's 75% BTTS rate and Wolves' 100% Over 2.5 rate underscore a season pattern favoring multiple goals and open play.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
9Wolves742113
11Birmingham641301
Wolves sit 4th and Birmingham 8th in the Championship standings, indicating Wolves' stronger form and offensive efficiency. While standings provide context, the goal-scoring trends and attacking styles of both teams offer more direct insight into the expected match dynamics and goal potential.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

50%Birmingham Over 2.5
100%Wolves Over 2.5
2.1H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.1, suggesting moderate scoring historically. However, recent form and attacking metrics indicate an upward trend in goals, with Wolves' recent matches consistently exceeding 2.5 goals, pointing to a faster tempo and more open game in this fixture.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.