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Benfica crestBenfica
v
Villarreal crestVillarreal

Friendlies Clubs | Fri 17 Jul, 19:45

Benfica v Villarreal Stats

Data last updated: Thu 16 Jul 2026, 13:45 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Benfica face Villarreal in Friendlies Clubs on Fri 17 Jul, 19:45. Benfica come in with 0 recent points and 1 goals per match, while Villarreal have 0 points and - goals per match in the same lens. In this competition context, game state, selection calls and recent rhythm matter more than a simple table position.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • At 1.72, Over 2.5 Goals implies roughly 58%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 78%.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 78% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 58% implied by the current price.

Model chance vs price78% model chance against roughly 58% implied
Strong positive
Price sensitivityEdge +19.9 pts
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Over 2.5 Goals is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Use the last-five and H2H goal samples to judge whether Over 2.5 has a tempo route, not just a historical average.
  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Benfica

L
Last 50W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 1L
11 Jul 2026H Flamengo1-2

Villarreal

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Villarreal yet.

Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 58% · edge +14.9 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
Villarreal Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 54%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Villarreal to WinBetUK guide price · model 44%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Benfica Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 51%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Benfica to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Benfica1
Avg goals scored
Villarreal-
Benfica2
Avg goals conceded
Villarreal-
Benfica100%
BTTS rate
Villarreal-
Benfica100%
Over 2.5 goals
Villarreal-
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 78% vs implied 58% · edge +19.9 pts
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Load more odds for this section
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.23
Check odds @ 1.23
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 26%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 78% vs implied 58% · edge +19.9 pts
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Load more odds for this section
Villarreal Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 54%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Villarreal to WinBetUK guide price · model 44%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Benfica Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 51%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Benfica to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 Goals is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Benfica wins
0Draws
0Villarreal wins
21 Jul 2024Benfica v Villarreal3-1
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 78% vs implied 58% · edge +19.9 pts
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Load more odds for this section
Villarreal to WinBetUK guide price · model 44%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Benfica to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
The head-to-head sample gives context for Over 2.5 Goals, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Friendlies Clubs

Benfica1
Played
Villarreal0
Benfica1
Avg goals for
Villarreal0
Benfica2
Avg goals against
Villarreal0
Benfica0
Clean sheets
Villarreal0
Best odds for this sectionVillarreal Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 54% vs implied 42% · edge +11.7 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Load more odds for this section
Villarreal to WinBetUK guide price · model 44%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Benfica Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 51%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Benfica to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Season data supports Villarreal Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Benfica Over 2.5
-Villarreal Over 2.5
4H2H avg goals

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

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Betting context

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