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Iran crestIran

World Cup | Sun 21 Jun, 20:00

Belgium v Iran Stats

Data last updated: Mon 22 Jun 2026, 13:56 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Belgium and Iran meet in a pivotal Group G World Cup fixture with both teams level on one point after opening draws. Belgium's unbeaten streak and commanding possession metrics set the stage for territorial control, while Iran's recent high-scoring form and resilience in attack promise a lively contest. Belgium's ability to control possession and create high-quality chances contrasts with Iran's threat on transitions and counterattacks, making this match a tactical battle between control and chaos with significant group-stage implications.

BT4Y best bet

Belgium to Win & Over 2.5 Goals

  • Belgium average 69% possession and 18.64 shots per game, indicating strong territorial control and attacking volume.
  • Iran have scored 13 goals in their last 5 matches, showing potent offensive threat despite defensive vulnerabilities.
  • Belgium have scored in 16 of their last 20 matches, averaging 2.5 goals per game, supporting an expectation of multiple goals.
  • Both teams have a 100% BTTS rate in recent matches, suggesting both sides are likely to find the net.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Belgium to Win & Over 2.5 Goals highly with a 76% chance, reflecting Belgium's superior possession, shot volume, and scoring consistency. Iran's recent goal-scoring form and Belgium's defensive concessions create a scenario favoring multiple goals. The price at 3.4 offers strong value given the model's 76% probability, supported by Belgium's ability to dominate possession and Iran's counterattacking threat. No price warnings apply, making this a confident selection based on tactical and statistical evidence.

Belgium's possession and shot control69% possession, 18.64 shots per game
Strong positive
Iran's recent goal-scoring form13 goals in last 5 matches
Positive
Belgium's scoring consistency2.5 goals per game average, 16/20 matches scored
Strong positive
Price vs model chance3.4 decimal odds vs 76% chance
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Belgium's ability to control possession and generate high-quality chances makes them the clear favorites to win. Iran's attacking resilience ensures the match will feature goals from both sides, aligning well with the combined bet. The tactical balance suggests a competitive but ultimately Belgian-controlled game with multiple goals scored.

Main risk

The main risk lies in Belgium's defensive vulnerabilities and Iran's effective counterattacks, which could lead to an unexpected scoreline or fewer goals if Belgium controls transitions better than expected.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · tactical and scoring balance

“Belgium's control in possession and shot creation sets a strong foundation for a high-scoring win, but Iran's sharp counterattacks mean this won't be a straightforward clean sheet. Expect a dynamic match with goals at both ends.”

Key Data Signals

Belgium to Win & Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Belgium average 69% possession and 18.64 shots per game, indicating strong territorial control and attacking volume.

Iran have scored 13 goals in their last 5 matches, showing potent offensive threat despite defensive vulnerabilities.

Belgium have scored in 16 of their last 20 matches, averaging 2.5 goals per game, supporting an expectation of multiple goals.

Both teams have a 100% BTTS rate in recent matches, suggesting both sides are likely to find the net.

What To Watch In The Data

Belgium to Win & Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Recent trends show a strong inclination towards over 2.5 goals in matches involving both teams, with Iran's last five games averaging 2.6 goals and Belgium's matches frequently exceeding this threshold.
  • The combination of Belgium's possession-based attack and Iran's counterattacking style suggests a fast-paced game with multiple scoring opportunities, reinforcing the over 2.5 goals trend in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Belgium1
Avg goals scored
Iran2
Belgium1
Avg goals conceded
Iran2
Belgium100%
BTTS rate
Iran100%
Belgium0%
Over 2.5 goals
Iran100%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 48% · edge +28.4 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 54%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 50%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 32%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Both teams have demonstrated strong scoring form recently, with Belgium scoring in 16 of their last 20 matches and Iran netting 13 goals in their last five games. Both sides have a 100% BTTS rate in recent fixtures, indicating a high likelihood of goals at both ends and supporting the expectation of over 2.5 goals in this match.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBelgium Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 51% vs implied 83% · edge -32.6 pts
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 58%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 50%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Belgium to WinBetfred guide price · model 41%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
The of 3.4 for Belgium to Win & Over 2.5 Goals reflect significant value compared to the model's 76% probability. Belgium's strong possession and shot metrics underpin this , while Iran's scoring threat supports the over 2.5 goals component. This pricing offers a compelling risk-reward balance without requiring caution for short pricing.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Belgium2
Avg corners for
Iran4
Belgium9
Avg total corners
Iran5
Belgium2
Avg yellow cards
Iran1
Belgium15
Avg shots
Iran17
Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 46% · edge +12 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 44%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Belgium's average of 15 shots per game and Iran's 17 shots indicate an open game with frequent attacking attempts. Iran's higher average corners (4 vs Belgium's 2) suggest they will generate set-piece opportunities, while Belgium's slightly higher yellow card average (2 vs 1) reflects their aggressive pressing style. These factors point to a dynamic match with sustained pressure and tactical fouling.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Belgium

D
Last 50W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 0L
15 Jun 2026H Egypt1-1

Iran

D
Last 50W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 0L
16 Jun 2026H New Zealand2-2
Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBetUK guide price · Model 70% vs implied 93% · edge -22.9 pts
1.08
Check odds @ 1.08
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Belgium Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 51%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Belgium to WinBetfred guide price · model 41%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Belgium's unbeaten run of six matches, including high-scoring wins, contrasts with Iran's recent scoring burst of 13 goals in five games. Both teams earned draws in their World Cup openers, but Belgium's consistent form and territorial control suggest they are poised to impose their style, while Iran's offensive momentum ensures the match will be competitive and goal-rich.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Belgium wins
0Draws
0Iran wins
Market aligned with main pickBelgium to WinBetfred guide price · Model 41% vs implied 70% · edge -29.9 pts
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 50%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
No previous head-to-head matches exist between Belgium and Iran, so historical data offers no direct insight. This absence places greater emphasis on current form, tactical setups, and statistical profiles to assess likely match dynamics and outcomes.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

World Cup

Belgium2
Played
Iran2
Belgium0.5
Avg goals for
Iran1
Belgium0.5
Avg goals against
Iran1
Belgium1
Clean sheets
Iran1
Market aligned with main pickBelgium Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 51% vs implied 83% · edge -32.6 pts
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Load more odds for this section
Belgium to WinBetfred guide price · model 41%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Belgium's season-long average of 2.5 goals per game and 69% possession highlight their offensive control and control. Iran's 1.9 goals per game and 57% possession reflect a balanced but less controlling approach. Belgium's higher shot accuracy and dangerous attacks per game support the expectation of multiple goals and a home win, while Iran's defensive concessions underline vulnerability against sustained pressure.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
2Iran220200
3Belgium220200
5Belgium220200
Both Belgium and Iran sit level on one point in Group G after opening draws, creating a high-stakes environment where a win significantly boosts qualification chances. The tight group standings add pressure for Belgium to assert control and for Iran to capitalize on counterattacks, making this match crucial for both sides' progression hopes.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Belgium Over 2.5
100%Iran Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Recent trends show a strong inclination towards over 2.5 goals in matches involving both teams, with Iran's last five games averaging 2.6 goals and Belgium's matches frequently exceeding this threshold. The combination of Belgium's possession-based attack and Iran's counterattacking style suggests a fast-paced game with multiple scoring opportunities, reinforcing the over 2.5 goals trend in this fixture.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Belgium v Iran prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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