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Belarus crestBelarus
v
San Marino crestSan Marino

UEFA Nations League | Sat 03 Oct, 17:00

Belarus v San Marino Stats

Data last updated: Fri 02 Oct 2026, 10:42 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Belarus hosts San Marino in a UEFA Nations League clash where both teams seek their first win of the campaign. Belarus, under Viktor Goncharenko, have struggled to find the net recently, failing to score in three consecutive home matches and two group games, but boast a solid defensive record at home. San Marino faces a steep challenge after conceding 10 goals in two group matches and enduring a 10-match losing streak. The visitors' defensive frailty contrasts with Belarus's territorial control, setting the stage for a potentially high-scoring encounter despite Belarus's scoring difficulties.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 71%, above the 58% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • San Marino conceded 37 goals in last six matches, including 10 in two Nations League games.
  • Belarus failed to score in three consecutive home matches but have strong home defensive form.
  • Previous Nations League meetings saw Belarus score seven unanswered goals against San Marino.
  • San Marino's ongoing losing streak and poor scoring record increase likelihood of goals.
Price warning

Over 2.5 Goals is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 71% while the model sits nearer 58% (-13.3 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: San Marino to Win shows a +5.7 pts edge at 26.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The model estimates a 58.1% chance for over 2.5 goals, driven by San Marino's porous defense conceding 37 goals in six matches and Belarus's historical control in this fixture. Despite Belarus's recent scoring struggles, the visitors' vulnerability and tendency to concede early goals suggest a high-scoring game. The current imply a 69.2% chance, making the price short and recommending reduced stake. Improvement in line-ups or drift would strengthen the value case.

San Marino Defensive Record37 goals conceded in last 6 matches
Strong positive
Belarus Scoring Form0.5 goals per game over last 8 matches
Neutral
Historical H2H7 goals scored by Belarus without reply in 2 meetings
Positive
Market Implied Chance58.1% model chance vs 71.4% implied (-13.3 pts)
Negative
Model Probability58.1% model chance vs 71.4% implied (-13.3 pts)
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Belarus's solid home defensive record combined with San Marino's defensive frailty sets a strong foundation for a high-scoring match. While Belarus's recent scoring issues temper expectations, the visitors' inability to contain attacks and their long losing streak make over 2.5 goals a plausible outcome in this Nations League fixture.

Main risk

Risk Factor: Exact-score bets risk losing if Belarus scores fewer than three or San Marino scores once.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match scoring potential

“San Marino's defensive vulnerabilities and Belarus's territorial control create a scenario ripe for multiple goals, even if Belarus's finishing has been inconsistent recently.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

San Marino conceded 37 goals in last six matches, including 10 in two Nations League games.

Belarus failed to score in three consecutive home matches but have strong home defensive form.

Previous Nations League meetings saw Belarus score seven unanswered goals against San Marino.

San Marino's ongoing losing streak and poor scoring record increase likelihood of goals.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the two previous Nations League meetings, Belarus scored seven goals without reply, averaging 3.5 goals per game.
  • Recent matches show San Marino conceding multiple goals early, suggesting a trend towards high-tempo, goal-rich games.
  • This trend panel over the last two fixtures supports the over 2.5 goals prediction through sustained attacking pressure and defensive lapses.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Belarus0
Avg goals scored
San Marino0
Belarus1
Avg goals conceded
San Marino5
Belarus0%
BTTS rate
San Marino0%
Belarus0%
Over 2.5 goals
San Marino100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 58% vs implied 71% · edge -13.3 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 76%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 32%
3
Check odds @ 3
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 40%
2
Check odds @ 2
San Marino's defense has conceded heavily, allowing 37 goals in six matches, while Belarus has struggled to score but historically dominates this fixture. Both teams' recent matches show a high rate of goals conceded and scored, supporting the likelihood of over 2.5 goals. The absence of goals from Belarus tempers but does not negate this trend.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 58% vs implied 71% · edge -13.3 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
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Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Belarus to WinBet365 guide price · model 79%
1.06
Check odds @ 1.06
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 32%
3
Check odds @ 3
San Marino to WinBetUK guide price · model 10%
26
Check odds @ 26
DrawBetfred guide price · model 12%
12
Check odds @ 12
The 58.1% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 71.4% implied by the current price (-13.3 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 0% for Belarus and 100% for San Marino, so the goals angle is not just a price call. San Marino's poor defence has conceded 37 goals in six matches, making a high-scoring game likely despite Belarus's scoring struggles.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

UEFA Nations League fixtures and predictionsrelated match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Belarus

DL
Last 50W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 1L
29 Sep 2026A Finland0-0
26 Sep 2026A Albania0-2

San Marino

LL
Last 50W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 2L
29 Sep 2026H Albania0-3
26 Sep 2026H Finland0-7
Best odds for this sectionBelarus to WinBet365 guide price · Model 79% vs implied 94% · edge -15.8 pts
1.06
Check odds @ 1.06
Load more odds for this section
San Marino to WinBetUK guide price · model 10%
26
Check odds @ 26
DrawBetfred guide price · model 12%
12
Check odds @ 12
Belarus has earned 1 point from two Nations League matches but failed to score, while San Marino has lost both games conceding 5 goals. Belarus's over 2.5 goals rate is 0%, contrasting with San Marino's 100%, reflecting their defensive frailty. This recent form data supports a high-scoring game, especially given San Marino's consistent conceding pattern.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Belarus Over 2.5
100%San Marino Over 2.5
3.5H2H avg goals
In the two previous Nations League meetings, Belarus scored seven goals without reply, averaging 3.5 goals per game. Recent matches show San Marino conceding multiple goals early, suggesting a trend towards high-tempo, goal-rich games. This trend panel over the last two fixtures supports the over 2.5 goals prediction through sustained attacking pressure and defensive lapses.

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