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Belarus crestBelarus
v
Finland crestFinland

UEFA Nations League | Tue 06 Oct, 19:45

Belarus v Finland Stats

Data last updated: Tue 27 Oct 2026, 01:28 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Belarus face Finland in UEFA Nations League on Tue 06 Oct, 19:45. Belarus vs Finland preview: Group C1 leaders face stubborn test in Budapest. Leo Walta's form and Joel Pohjanpalo's presence provide scoring options, while Belarus's inability to score against stronger teams supports a Finnish clean sheet.

BT4Y best bet

Finland to win

  • At 19/20, Finland to win implies roughly 51%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 66%.
  • Belarus will again be nominal hosts on neutral territory, so conventional home advantage is limited.
  • Finland have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 4 for Belarus.
  • Finland have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.33 conceded per match, which helps the Finland to win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Belarus sit 2 in the table, while Finland sit 3, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 66% for Finland to win sits against roughly 51% implied by the current price. Finland have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 4 for Belarus. Belarus will again be nominal hosts on neutral territory, so conventional home advantage is limited.

Model chance vs price66% model chance against roughly 51% implied
Strong positive
Finland have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points.Visible data support
Positive
Finland have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.33 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Belarus will again be nominal hosts on neutral territory.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Finland Win is the preferred angle because belarus will again be nominal hosts on neutral territory, so conventional home advantage is limited. Finland have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 4 for Belarus. Their recent improvement, however, gives them reason for .

Main risk

Their recent improvement, however, gives them reason for .

Key Data Signals

Finland to win evidence

Belarus will again be nominal hosts on neutral territory, so conventional home advantage is limited.

Finland have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 4 for Belarus.

Finland have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.33 conceded per match, which helps the Finland Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Belarus sit 2 in the table, while Finland sit 3, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Finland to win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Belarus1.33
    Avg goals scored
    Finland3
    Belarus0.67
    Avg goals conceded
    Finland0.33
    Belarus0%
    BTTS rate
    Finland33%
    Belarus33%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Finland67%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBetMGM guide price · Model 68% vs implied 62% · edge +6.3 pts
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
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    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 62%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 43%
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 61%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 25%
    4.5
    Check odds @ 4.5
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 33%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    BTTS No is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: Belarus concede 0.67 on average and Finland score 3, so the clean-sheet route has a data base.

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    Useful next reads

    more UEFA Nations League analysisrelated match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickFinland to WinBetfred guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Load more odds for this section
    Finland Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    1.48
    Check odds @ 1.48
    Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 65%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 43%
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 33%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Finland to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Belarus

    WDL
    Last 51W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 1D 1L
    03 Oct 2026H San Marino4-0
    29 Sep 2026A Finland0-0
    26 Sep 2026A Albania0-2

    Finland

    WDW
    Last 52W 1D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 1D 0L
    03 Oct 2026H Albania2-1
    29 Sep 2026H Belarus0-0
    26 Sep 2026A San Marino7-0
    Market aligned with main pickFinland to WinBetfred guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Load more odds for this section
    Finland Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    1.48
    Check odds @ 1.48
    Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 84%
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    33%Belarus Over 2.5
    67%Finland Over 2.5
    1H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Belarus sit at 33% and Finland sit at 67% with the H2H average at 1 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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