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Belarus crestBelarus
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Finland crestFinland

UEFA Nations League | Tue 06 Oct, 19:45

Belarus v Finland Stats

Data last updated: Mon 05 Oct 2026, 09:27 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Finland hosts Belarus in a UEFA Nations League Group C1 clash at Helsinki Olympic Stadium, with Finland riding high after a commanding 7-0 victory in their opening match. Finland's recent home form is strong, winning three of their last four matches on home soil, led by striker Joel Pohjanpalo's hat-trick performance. Belarus arrives following a 2-0 defeat to Albania, ending a six-match unbeaten run, and faces a step up in competition quality. Belarus has shown resilience away but struggles against higher-ranked teams, while Finland aims to build on their momentum and secure maximum points in this fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Finland to Win

  • Finland won 3 of their last 4 home matches, including a 7-0 Nations League opener.
  • Belarus conceded twice in the first half of their recent 2-0 loss to Albania.
  • Joel Pohjanpalo scored a hat-trick in Finland's last match, leading their attack.
  • Belarus have struggled to score against top-80 ranked teams this year.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Finland's chances at 67.9%, higher than the implied 61.9% , indicating positive value. Finland's dominant home form and recent high-scoring display provide a strong attacking platform, while Belarus's difficulties against stronger opposition and recent defensive lapses support Finland's likelihood to win. The model is solid at 73%, reflecting consistent data signals. No data limitations affect this assessment, making Finland to Win a well-supported selection based on form, tactical control, and scoring potential.

Model Chance65% model chance vs 50% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Odds Chance65% model chance vs 50% implied (+15 pts)
Positive
Recent Home FormStrong (3 wins in last 4)
Strong positive
Opponent Defensive RecordWeak vs Top-80 teams
Positive
Confidence Level73%
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Finland's commanding home form and potent attack, spearheaded by Joel Pohjanpalo, position them well to claim victory against Belarus. The visitors' recent struggles against higher-ranked teams and defensive vulnerabilities provide Finland with tactical and statistical advantages that should translate into a winning performance.

Main risk

Finland’s seven-goal opening performance naturally makes them the more eye-catching side heading into Tuesday, but Belarus should provide a significantly different challenge from San Marino.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Finland's momentum at home, combined with Belarus's challenges stepping up in competition, makes Finland the clear favorite to secure all three points in this Nations League fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Finland to Win evidence

Finland won 3 of their last 4 home matches, including a 7-0 Nations League opener.

Belarus conceded twice in the first half of their recent 2-0 loss to Albania.

Joel Pohjanpalo scored a hat-trick in Finland's last match, leading their attack.

Belarus have struggled to score against top-80 ranked teams this year.

What To Watch In The Data

Finland to Win notes

  • Over the last five matches, Finland has a 67% rate of games exceeding 2.5 goals, driven by their attacking prowess.
  • However, head-to-head encounters with Belarus have averaged only 1 goal per game, with fewer than three goals scored in the last four meetings.
  • This suggests a potential for a moderate scoring game with Finland likely controlling tempo and chances.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Belarus1.33
Avg goals scored
Finland3
Belarus0.67
Avg goals conceded
Finland0.33
Belarus0%
BTTS rate
Finland33%
Belarus33%
Over 2.5 goals
Finland67%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBetMGM guide price · Model 68% vs implied 58% · edge +10.2 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 43%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 25%
4
Check odds @ 4
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 33%
2
Check odds @ 2
Recent form and head-to-head history suggest a low-scoring game with BTTS No and Under 3.5 Goals likely. Finland's defense has been solid, conceding only 0.33 goals per game recently, while Belarus has failed to score in their last match and has a 0% BTTS rate. Past meetings between these teams have consistently produced fewer than three goals, supporting a controlled scoring environment.

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Useful next reads

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickFinland to WinBetfred guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Finland Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.58
Check odds @ 1.58
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 65%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 43%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 33%
2
Check odds @ 2
The 65% for Finland to Win sits against roughly 50% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Finland have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 4 for Belarus. Past meetings show fewer than three goals, making a controlled two-goal margin plausible despite Belarus's away resilience.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Belarus

WDL
Last 51W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 1L
03 Oct 2026H San Marino4-0
29 Sep 2026A Finland0-0
26 Sep 2026A Albania0-2

Finland

WDW
Last 52W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 0L
03 Oct 2026H Albania2-1
29 Sep 2026H Belarus0-0
26 Sep 2026A San Marino7-0
Market aligned with main pickFinland to WinBetfred guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Finland Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.58
Check odds @ 1.58
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 84%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Finland's recent form is impressive, with 7 points from their last matches and a dominant 7-0 win boosting . Belarus, while unbeaten in six matches prior, recently lost 2-0 to Albania, highlighting vulnerability against stronger opposition. Finland's ability to maintain clean sheets and score multiple goals contrasts with Belarus's struggles to score and defend against higher-ranked teams, favoring Finland's winning prospects.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

33%Belarus Over 2.5
67%Finland Over 2.5
1H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, Finland has a 67% rate of games exceeding 2.5 goals, driven by their attacking prowess. However, head-to-head encounters with Belarus have averaged only 1 goal per game, with fewer than three goals scored in the last four meetings. This suggests a potential for a moderate scoring game with Finland likely controlling tempo and chances.

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