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Barnet crestBarnet
v
Accrington ST crestAccrington ST

League Two | Sat 12 Sep, 15:00

Barnet v Accrington ST Stats

Data last updated: Fri 11 Sep 2026, 08:35 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Barnet host Accrington ST in a League Two clash where both sides have shown attacking intent early in the season. Barnet sit third with nine points, boasting an 80% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, while Accrington ST, positioned 19th, also share an 80% over 2.5 rate despite defensive vulnerabilities. Both teams have averaged multiple goals per game, suggesting an open contest with potential for multiple scoring opportunities. The match promises tactical battles with Barnet's higher league standing contrasting Accrington's resilience, setting the stage for an engaging encounter with goal-scoring chances at a premium.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Barnet and Accrington ST both have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season.
  • Barnet averages 2.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game, indicating open play.
  • Accrington ST concedes 2.2 goals per game, highlighting defensive frailties.
  • Both teams average high shot volumes, with Accrington ST at 16.25 and Barnet at 14.75 shots per game.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model estimates a 73.2% chance of Over 2.5 Goals, well above the implied market chance of 62.5%, indicating clear value. Both teams have demonstrated attacking prowess and defensive vulnerabilities, with Barnet scoring 2.4 goals per game and Accrington ST conceding 2.2. High shot volumes and BTTS rates further support an open, goal-rich match. The data quality is solid, with no limitations, reinforcing in this selection as a strong football and statistical case.

Model Chance73.2%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance62.5%
Positive
Barnet Goals For2.4 per game
Strong positive
Accrington ST Goals Against2.2 per game
Strong positive
Over 2.5 Rate Both Teams80%
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open game with both teams pushing forward, given Barnet's strong home form and Accrington ST's defensive struggles. The high volume of shots and goals scored this season suggests Over 2.5 Goals is a fitting prediction for this fixture.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential

“Barnet's attacking efficiency combined with Accrington ST's defensive lapses creates a fertile ground for goals. This match is poised to deliver multiple scoring moments, making Over 2.5 Goals a compelling call.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Barnet and Accrington ST both have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season.

Barnet averages 2.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game, indicating open play.

Accrington ST concedes 2.2 goals per game, highlighting defensive frailties.

Both teams average high shot volumes, with Accrington ST at 16.25 and Barnet at 14.75 shots per game.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.6, supporting the trend for matches with multiple goals.
  • Both teams' recent Over 2.5 rates at 80% over the current season align with this historical data, indicating a consistent tempo and openness conducive to a high-scoring encounter.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Barnet2.4
Avg goals scored
Accrington ST1.8
Barnet1.6
Avg goals conceded
Accrington ST2.2
Barnet100%
BTTS rate
Accrington ST80%
Barnet80%
Over 2.5 goals
Accrington ST80%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 63% · edge +10.7 pts
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 88%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 31%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 28%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Both Barnet and Accrington ST have high BTTS and Over 2.5 rates, with Barnet at 100% BTTS and Accrington ST at 80%. Their combined attacking and defensive profiles point to a match where both sides are likely to score, and the total goals will exceed 2.5, supported by their average goals per game and recent scoring trends.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 63% · edge +10.7 pts
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Barnet to WinBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Barnet Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
Accrington ST Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Accrington ST to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
DrawBet365 guide price · model 23%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
The Over 2.5 Goals market is priced attractively with around 1.6, reflecting a 62.5% implied chance. The model's 73.2% probability indicates a positive , suggesting the market underestimates the likelihood of a high-scoring game. This pricing offers a strong betting opportunity without requiring movement.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Barnet7.2
Avg corners for
Accrington ST3.4
Barnet11.4
Avg total corners
Accrington ST9.2
Barnet2
Avg yellow cards
Accrington ST2.8
Barnet16.4
Avg shots
Accrington ST15.8
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
1.88
Check odds @ 1.88
Barnet averages 7 corners per game compared to Accrington ST's 4, indicating slightly more attacking pressure from Barnet. Accrington ST commits more fouls and receives more yellow cards, suggesting a physical contest that could lead to set-piece opportunities and sustained pressure, contributing to shot volume and goal chances.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Barnet

DDDWW
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 0L
05 Sep 2026A Chesterfield3-3
01 Sep 2026A Exeter City1-1
29 Aug 2026H Cheltenham2-2
22 Aug 2026A Shrewsbury3-1
15 Aug 2026H Salford City3-1

Accrington ST

WDLLD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 2L
05 Sep 2026H Crawley Town3-2
01 Sep 2026H Grimsby2-2
29 Aug 2026A Walsall2-3
22 Aug 2026A Exeter City0-2
15 Aug 2026H Colchester2-2
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 86% vs implied 88% · edge -1.7 pts
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Load more odds for this section
Barnet to WinBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Barnet Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
Accrington ST Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 46%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Accrington ST to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
DrawBet365 guide price · model 23%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Barnet's recent form shows a strong tendency for high-scoring games, with an 80% Over 2.5 rate and 100% BTTS in their last matches. Accrington ST matches this with an 80% Over 2.5 rate despite a lower points tally, indicating that recent matches have been open and goal-rich, reinforcing the likelihood of continued goal-scoring in this fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Barnet wins
2Draws
5Accrington ST wins
24 Feb 2026Accrington ST v Barnet0-1
04 Oct 2025Barnet v Accrington ST2-0
26 Nov 2022Accrington ST v Barnet1-0
17 Feb 2018Barnet v Accrington ST1-1
28 Oct 2017Accrington ST v Barnet4-1
04 Mar 2017Accrington ST v Barnet1-0
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 63% · edge +10.7 pts
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Barnet to WinBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Accrington ST to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
DrawBet365 guide price · model 23%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
The 10 previous meetings between Barnet and Accrington ST have averaged 2.6 goals per game, reflecting a history of relatively open contests. While not overwhelmingly high, this average supports the expectation of multiple goals, especially when combined with current season attacking and defensive trends from both teams.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

League Two

Barnet5
Played
Accrington ST5
Barnet2.4
Avg goals for
Accrington ST1.8
Barnet1.6
Avg goals against
Accrington ST2.2
Barnet0
Clean sheets
Accrington ST0
Best odds for this sectionBarnet to WinBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 64% · edge +3.7 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
Barnet Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
Accrington ST Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Accrington ST to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Season-long data reveals Barnet's attack averages 2.4 goals per game while conceding 1.6, reflecting an aggressive style with defensive gaps. Accrington ST concedes 2.2 goals per game, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities. Both teams' high Over 2.5 rates (80%) underscore a season pattern favoring matches with multiple goals.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
3Barnet952304
19Accrington ST55122-2
Barnet's position near the top of the League Two table contrasts with Accrington ST's lower standing, suggesting Barnet may control more possession and territory. However, Accrington ST's need for points could lead to an open game with attacking intent from both sides, increasing the chance of goals.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Barnet Over 2.5
80%Accrington ST Over 2.5
2.6H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.6, supporting the trend for matches with multiple goals. Both teams' recent Over 2.5 rates at 80% over the current season align with this historical data, indicating a consistent tempo and openness conducive to a high-scoring encounter.

Related football research

Fixture links

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