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Bahia crestBahia
v
Mirassol crestMirassol

Serie A | Sun 11 Oct, 23:30

Bahia v Mirassol Stats

Data last updated: Mon 12 Oct 2026, 15:47 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Bahia and Mirassol meet in a Serie A clash where both teams have shown attacking intent in recent matches. Bahia, positioned 6th, have been scoring regularly but also conceding at a similar rate, while Mirassol, sitting 15th, have demonstrated resilience and an ability to find the net despite defensive vulnerabilities. The match promises open play with both sides eager to secure points, making goal-scoring opportunities likely at both ends. Tactical setups suggest an emphasis on offense, with neither team expected to prioritize deep defensive blocks, setting the stage for a contest with goals from both sides.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Bahia scores and concedes at a rate close to 1.8 and 1.6 goals per game respectively.
  • Mirassol averages 1.4 goals scored and concedes 1.2 per match, indicating offensive capability and defensive openness.
  • Both teams have decent BTTS rates: Bahia at 80% and Mirassol at 60%.
  • Recent form shows Bahia with 9 points and Mirassol with 8 points, reflecting competitive momentum.
  • Head-to-head matches average 3.67 goals, supporting a high-scoring encounter.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a strong 76% chance for both teams to score, supported by Bahia's high BTTS rate of 80% and Mirassol's 60%. Both teams have shown consistent offensive output, with average goals scored per game above 1.4 and defensive records that allow goals. The head-to-head average of 3.67 goals per game further underlines the likelihood of goals at both ends. The pricing at 1.67 offers positive value given the model's and the attacking tendencies of both sides. No data limitations affect this assessment.

Bahia BTTS Rate80%
Strong positive
Mirassol BTTS Rate60%
Positive
Average Goals per Game (H/A)Bahia 1.8 scored, 1.6 conceded; Mirassol 1.4 scored, 1.2 conceded
Strong positive
Head-to-Head Average Goals3.67 goals per match
Positive
Model Confidence88%
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both teams have demonstrated attacking capabilities and defensive vulnerabilities, making a Both Teams to Score outcome tactically plausible. Bahia's aggressive offense combined with Mirassol's ability to find the net supports this selection. Data from recent form and head-to-head meetings confirm the likelihood of goals at both ends, reinforcing the bet's football logic.

Main risk

Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Both Teams to Score rationale

“This fixture features two sides that balance offensive ambition with defensive frailties, creating a fertile ground for goals from both teams. The attacking roles and recent scoring patterns strongly suggest a match where both sides will find the net.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Bahia scores and concedes at a rate close to 1.8 and 1.6 goals per game respectively.

Mirassol averages 1.4 goals scored and concedes 1.2 per match, indicating offensive capability and defensive openness.

Both teams have decent BTTS rates: Bahia at 80% and Mirassol at 60%.

Recent form shows Bahia with 9 points and Mirassol with 8 points, reflecting competitive momentum.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last three head-to-head matches, the average goals tally stands at 3.67, indicating a high-scoring trend.
  • Bahia's 80% over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Mirassol's 40%, suggesting Bahia's matches often feature more goals.
  • This trend points to a game with open tempo and multiple scoring opportunities, aligning with the BTTS selection.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Bahia1.8
Avg goals scored
Mirassol1.4
Bahia1.6
Avg goals conceded
Mirassol1.2
Bahia80%
BTTS rate
Mirassol60%
Bahia80%
Over 2.5 goals
Mirassol40%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 75% vs implied 60% · edge +15 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Both teams have solid scoring records this season, with Bahia averaging 1.8 goals and Mirassol 1.4 per game. Bahia concedes 1.6 goals on average, while Mirassol concedes 1.2, supporting the expectation of goals at both ends. The head-to-head average of 3.67 goals across three matches highlights a history of open, goal-rich encounters, reinforcing the BTTS angle.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 75% vs implied 60% · edge +15 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Mirassol to WinBetMGM guide price · model 35%
5
Check odds @ 5
Mirassol Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 46%
2.85
Check odds @ 2.85
DrawBetUK guide price · model 28%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Bahia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Bahia to WinBet365 guide price · model 48%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
The 74.9% for Both Teams to Score sits against roughly 59.9% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Bahia show a 80% BTTS rate and Mirassol show a 60% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Serie A hubcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Bahia

LLWWW
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 4D 2L
09 Oct 2026A Palmeiras0-1
20 Sep 2026A Atletico Paranaense1-2
15 Sep 2026H Remo2-1
05 Sep 2026A RB Bragantino3-2
30 Aug 2026H Internacional3-2

Mirassol

DWDWL
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 4D 3L
07 Oct 2026A RB Bragantino1-1
19 Sep 2026H Botafogo2-0
13 Sep 2026H Vitoria2-2
06 Sep 2026A Coritiba2-1
02 Sep 2026A Flamengo0-2
Best odds for this sectionMirassol to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 35% vs implied 20% · edge +15 pts
5
Check odds @ 5
Load more odds for this section
Mirassol Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 46%
2.85
Check odds @ 2.85
DrawBetUK guide price · model 28%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Bahia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Bahia to WinBet365 guide price · model 48%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Recent form data shows Bahia with 9 points and Mirassol with 8 points from their last matches, both maintaining competitive momentum. Bahia's high BTTS rate of 80% in recent games and Mirassol's 60% support the expectation of goals from both sides. The teams' recent scoring and conceding patterns align well with a BTTS outcome in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Bahia Over 2.5
40%Mirassol Over 2.5
3.67H2H avg goals
Over the last three head-to-head matches, the average goals tally stands at 3.67, indicating a high-scoring trend. Bahia's 80% over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Mirassol's 40%, suggesting Bahia's matches often feature more goals. This trend points to a game with open tempo and multiple scoring opportunities, aligning with the BTTS selection.

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