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AZ Alkmaar crestAZ Alkmaar
v
Willem II crestWillem II

Eredivisie | Fri 11 Sep, 19:00

AZ Alkmaar v Willem II Stats

Data last updated: Thu 10 Sep 2026, 08:21 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

AZ Alkmaar hosts Willem II in an Eredivisie clash where the home side leads the table with a perfect start, while Willem II struggles at the bottom with just one point. AZ Alkmaar's attacking prowess and home form contrast sharply with Willem II's defensive vulnerabilities and poor results. The match sets up as a test of AZ's offensive consistency against Willem II's resilience, with both teams likely to seek goals despite the disparity in recent performances and league standing.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • AZ Alkmaar averages 3.2 goals scored and concedes 1 goal per game this season.
  • Willem II has scored 1 goal per game but concedes 3.25, showing defensive frailty.
  • Both teams have high BTTS rates: AZ Alkmaar at 60% and Willem II at 75%.
  • Head-to-head matches average 3.6 goals, indicating open games.
  • AZ Alkmaar averages nearly 20 shots per game with 8 on target, while Willem II averages 12.5 shots with 2.5 on target.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Both Teams to Score at 76% chance, well above the implied market chance of 52.4%, indicating strong value. AZ Alkmaar's potent attack and Willem II's leaky defense create a fertile environment for goals at both ends. The high BTTS rates for both teams, combined with an average of 3.6 goals in their recent meetings, support the likelihood of both sides scoring. The data quality is solid, with comprehensive stats for both teams, reinforcing in this selection.

Model Chance76%
Strong positive
Market Implied Chance52.4%
Strong positive
AZ Alkmaar BTTS Rate60%
Positive
Willem II BTTS Rate75%
Positive
H2H Average Goals3.6 per match
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both Teams to Score is a tactically sound pick given AZ Alkmaar's attacking control and Willem II's defensive struggles. The statistical evidence of high BTTS rates and goal averages in their encounters supports this outcome, making it a compelling choice for this fixture.

Main risk

Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · BTTS rationale

“The combination of AZ Alkmaar's offensive firepower and Willem II's defensive weaknesses makes Both Teams to Score a logical expectation in this match-up.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

AZ Alkmaar averages 3.2 goals scored and concedes 1 goal per game this season.

Willem II has scored 1 goal per game but concedes 3.25, showing defensive frailty.

Both teams have high BTTS rates: AZ Alkmaar at 60% and Willem II at 75%.

Head-to-head matches average 3.6 goals, indicating open games.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last ten matches, the average goals per game between these teams is 3.6, with a strong trend towards Over 2.5 Goals.
  • This suggests a high-tempo game with multiple scoring opportunities and supports the BTTS and goal markets.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

AZ Alkmaar8.8
Avg corners for
Willem II4.75
AZ Alkmaar12.6
Avg total corners
Willem II10
AZ Alkmaar1
Avg yellow cards
Willem II1
AZ Alkmaar19.6
Avg shots
Willem II12.5
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
AZ Alkmaar exerts significant attacking pressure, averaging 8.8 corners and nearly 20 shots per game, while Willem II's lower corner and shot counts reflect their defensive posture. Both teams maintain similar yellow card averages, indicating moderate discipline levels that should not heavily disrupt attacking flow.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

AZ Alkmaar3.2
Avg goals scored
Willem II1
AZ Alkmaar1
Avg goals conceded
Willem II3.25
AZ Alkmaar60%
BTTS rate
Willem II75%
AZ Alkmaar60%
Over 2.5 goals
Willem II100%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.07
Check odds @ 1.07
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 26%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Both teams demonstrate high BTTS rates this season, with AZ Alkmaar scoring and conceding regularly, and Willem II conceding heavily while still managing to score. Their recent head-to-head matches average 3.6 goals, underscoring an open game with goals at both ends.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Willem II to WinBet365 guide price · model 22%
15
Check odds @ 15
AZ Alkmaar to WinBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
DrawBetUK guide price · model 18%
8
Check odds @ 8
The Both Teams to Score market shows strong value with a of 76% versus an implied market chance of 52.4%, indicating the underestimate the likelihood of both sides scoring. This price sensitivity suggests a favorable betting opportunity without major caution flags.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

AZ Alkmaar

WWWWW
Last 55W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 0D 0L
06 Sep 2026A Heerenveen3-2
29 Aug 2026H GO Ahead Eagles5-2
22 Aug 2026A Fortuna Sittard2-0
15 Aug 2026A Utrecht4-1
08 Aug 2026H ADO Den Haag2-0

Willem II

LDLL
Last 50W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 3L
05 Sep 2026H Excelsior0-3
30 Aug 2026H Heerenveen2-2
15 Aug 2026H NEC Nijmegen1-4
08 Aug 2026A GO Ahead Eagles1-4
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 34% vs implied 19% · edge +15 pts
5.22
Check odds @ 5.22
Load more odds for this section
Willem II to WinBet365 guide price · model 22%
15
Check odds @ 15
Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 86%
1.03
Check odds @ 1.03
AZ Alkmaar to WinBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
DrawBetUK guide price · model 18%
8
Check odds @ 8
AZ Alkmaar's flawless start with 15 points and a 60% BTTS rate contrasts with Willem II's solitary point and 75% BTTS rate, reflecting a pattern where both teams find the net despite differing fortunes. This recent form data aligns with the BTTS selection.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4AZ Alkmaar wins
3Draws
3Willem II wins
02 Feb 2025Willem II v AZ Alkmaar0-2
10 Nov 2024AZ Alkmaar v Willem II1-2
20 Mar 2022Willem II v AZ Alkmaar2-2
18 Dec 2021AZ Alkmaar v Willem II4-1
03 Apr 2021Willem II v AZ Alkmaar0-1
20 Dec 2020AZ Alkmaar v Willem II5-3
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Willem II to WinBet365 guide price · model 22%
15
Check odds @ 15
AZ Alkmaar to WinBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
DrawBetUK guide price · model 18%
8
Check odds @ 8
The ten previous meetings between AZ Alkmaar and Willem II have averaged 3.6 goals per match, indicating open contests with goals from both sides. This historical trend supports the expectation of Both Teams to Score in the upcoming fixture.
Season team stats

Eredivisie

AZ Alkmaar5
Played
Willem II4
AZ Alkmaar3.2
Avg goals for
Willem II1
AZ Alkmaar1
Avg goals against
Willem II3.3
AZ Alkmaar2
Clean sheets
Willem II0
Best odds for this sectionWillem II to WinBet365 guide price · Model 22% vs implied 7% · edge +15 pts
15
Check odds @ 15
Load more odds for this section
AZ Alkmaar to WinBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Season-long stats reveal AZ Alkmaar's strong attack averaging over 3 goals per game and a solid defense conceding just one goal, while Willem II's defense concedes over 3 goals per game but still manages to score, supporting the expectation of goals from both sides.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1AZ Alkmaar15550011
16Willem II14013-9
The league table highlights AZ Alkmaar's control at the top and Willem II's struggles at the bottom, suggesting a mismatch in quality but not necessarily a shutout scenario, as Willem II's offensive efforts have yielded goals despite poor results.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%AZ Alkmaar Over 2.5
100%Willem II Over 2.5
3.6H2H avg goals
Over the last ten matches, the average goals per game between these teams is 3.6, with a strong trend towards Over 2.5 Goals. This suggests a high-tempo game with multiple scoring opportunities and supports the BTTS and goal markets.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.